Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Wntrwthrguy]

EWX says via twitter the SREF/HRRR alone warrant a WSW, but they will wait for more data.

Are these 2 models normally reliable?

[dhweather]

Yeah, and they had never had a 28-foot storm surge on the Mississippi coastline until Cantore showed up in 2005. If we can get him to the PWC weather center, who knows what might happen?

I have little doubt it was 30+ feet between Waveland and Pass Christian. The damage, it is simply beyond what words can describe. It is a profound moment to stand and look at bridge pilings, with the top of the bridge simply gone because of storm surge. 4 lane concrete bridges, gone.



But back to the moment, it's 31 here now, the remaining liquid has frozen on elevated surfaces. Any new precip will hopefully be sleet, rain right now would be a terrible thing.

[dhweather]

EWX says via twitter the SREF/HRRR alone warrant a WSW, but they will wait for more data.

Are these 2 models normally reliable?

Models are like opinions.......


But yes, the HRRR does seem to do a good job with precip. Have a look here:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRSC_1z/cloop.html

[WeatherDuck]

Now down to 39 in Taylor. It has dropped 3 degrees in the last 30 minutes.

[dhweather]

About 8:00 it was raining pretty hard and the temp finally hit 32. I'm glad the rain moved on (I hate even saying that) because it would have led to significant ice buildup on elevated surfaces.

Presently in Heath 30.8 degrees .75" of rain today. I doubt I'll register any more rain in the weather station, it's likely frozen now.

[dhweather]

Disbelief that Rockwall ISD has not gone ahead and closed tomorrow. They usually cave when DISD does, which was hours ago. All of Rockwall County is below freezing now, any precip will become dangerous quickly.

[gboudx]

Update from Steve McCauley.

Parts of Dallas County still holding out with temperatures above freezing at the 9 o'clock hour, but much of the rest of the Metroplex is at 32 or below. ALL of the Metroplex should be below freezing by midnight.
Patchy freezing drizzle and light sleet will continue on and off throughout the night, but watch out predawn tomorrow morning as a large batch of sleet and thundersleet moves in from the west and southwest. Road conditions will rapidly deteriorate and become encrusted with ice very quickly as this system passes overhead.

[WeatherDuck]

Now down to 38 in Taylor. Seems to be falling rather quickly. Was 42 an hour ago.

[Ntxw]

The HRRR has been trying to pound the metroplex tomorrow morning. The higher res short range guidance seems to be picking up on the influx of Pacific moisture mentioned by srain. With temperatures in the mid 20s the Cantore Curse...

[HockeyTx82]

The HRRR has been trying to pound the metroplex tomorrow morning. The higher res short range guidance seems to be picking up on the influx of Pacific moisture mentioned by srain. With temperatures in the mid 20s the Cantore Curse...

]

Dumb question, what is the Cantore Curse? Is it good or bad? I know who he is, but are we looking good or bad based off your post? I am north, up by Denton.

[iorange55]

The HRRR has been trying to pound the metroplex tomorrow morning. The higher res short range guidance seems to be picking up on the influx of Pacific moisture mentioned by srain. With temperatures in the mid 20s the Cantore Curse...

]

Dumb question, what is the Cantore Curse? Is it good or bad? I know who he is, but are we looking good or bad based off your post? I am north, up by Denton.

It's good for us winter lovers.

[dhweather]

The Rockwall ISD just gave in and cancelled classes "in an abundance of caution based upon NWS forecasts"

[Texas Snowman]

Jim Cantore tends to show up at ground zero of Armageddon weather events. Hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, you name it. It's generally not a good idea to see him on Main Street of your hometown reporting for The Weather Channel.

[orangeblood]

The HRRR has been trying to pound the metroplex tomorrow morning. The higher res short range guidance seems to be picking up on the influx of Pacific moisture mentioned by srain. With temperatures in the mid 20s the Cantore Curse...

Was just about to mention this, short range guidance continues to shift south with the heaviest axis, now running from the metroplex along I-30 to Texarkana. Very heavy sleet showing up by daybreak tomorrow!

[Texas Snowman]

We need it to shift south to Austin!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Woah. That graphic has alot of precip.That could easily be over an inch in a wide area.

[serenata09]

That HRRR run is a little frightening. What kind of impacts would that much precip have?

[gboudx]

The Rockwall ISD just gave in and cancelled classes "in an abundance of caution based upon NWS forecasts"

If only you had waited 20 mins to press Submit. Again.

Btw, where's Lucy?

[Ntxw]

That HRRR run is a little frightening. What kind of impacts would that much precip have?

With such cold temperatures, none of it will melt and stick on impact. You will quickly get several inches of sleet under a thunderstorm locally. 850mb front is sitting between Dallas and Tarrant counties, expect storms to line up and cross that boundary at it's heaviest.

[orangeblood]

That HRRR run is a little frightening. What kind of impacts would that much precip have?

With such cold temperatures, none of it will melt and stick on impact. You will quickly get several inches of sleet under a thunderstorm locally. 850mb front is sitting between Dallas and Tarrant counties, expect storms to line up and cross that boundary at it's heaviest.

What in the world is up with the latest GFS ?...completely loses the enhanced convection, has less than a tenth of precip for the Metroplex. Wonder if it initialized incorrectly ?