Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

:roll:

Did you go through the Hour by hour on the HRRR run? Hour 30 it’s running straight through DFW then it starts to tail off to the west. Any reason for this? Is it the track of the ULL?

I wouldn't get caught up on it too much, it changes run to run. We won't know until the convection develops.

Roger that. NWS says it gets all the way to 30 tomorrow. Currently 23 lol.

Hi res models says we cool to mid 20s when qpf moves in. So if anything, it may nudge down during the daytime hours.

[CaptinCrunch]

This is the typical model says this and then says that, looks less likely, then more likely.

Just give me something on the ground so I can at least feel better about this whole setup.

[rwfromkansas]

I think I may have been confused. The NAM had been upping amounts today compared to before, not the HRRR.

Anyway, my temp is down to 25 again.

[Ntxw]

850s are pushing closer to 0C for tomorrow on the NAM for NW half of the state. The run trends have been colder up above.

[HockeyTx82]

So I'm confused. Is my area done now and things are shifting to the South and SE?

Jist lots of posts and trying to gather what's going on.

[Ntxw]

So I'm confused. Is my area done now and things are shifting to the South and SE?

Jist lots of posts and trying to gather what's going on.

No, you are very likely to get more sleet and mixing possibly with snow tomorrow, especially in the morning.

[cstrunk]

Temp has been slowly dropping as intermittent showers are popping up around here. Down to 32.5F. But models seem to show it rising through the night....

[WacoWx]

I know we were supposed to see light drizzle overnight until another impulse arrived by sunrise’ish, but the radar is far more impressive rn than I anticipated.

I guess I’m just excited to see anything forming imby and downstream as today was somewhat precipitation-free.

[orangeblood]

Juiced Up!!! This system has a ton of moisture to work with on latest short range….PWAT values ranging from 1-1.25” DFW to Austin tomorrow morning with S/W then again Wednesday. IMO always go the over when you see those type values

[GeauxTigers]

So I'm confused. Is my area done now and things are shifting to the South and SE?

Jist lots of posts and trying to gather what's going on.

No, you are very likely to get more sleet and mixing possibly with snow tomorrow, especially in the morning.

After tomorrow morning in N TX done?

[orangeblood]

So I'm confused. Is my area done now and things are shifting to the South and SE?

Jist lots of posts and trying to gather what's going on.

No, you are very likely to get more sleet and mixing possibly with snow tomorrow, especially in the morning.

After tomorrow morning in N TX done?

Oh no, grand finale Wednesday!

[GeauxTigers]

No, you are very likely to get more sleet and mixing possibly with snow tomorrow, especially in the morning.

After tomorrow morning in N TX done?

Oh no, grand finale Wednesday!

Music to my ears!! Thank you!

[EnnisTx]

So I'm confused. Is my area done now and things are shifting to the South and SE?

Jist lots of posts and trying to gather what's going on.

No, you are very likely to get more sleet and mixing possibly with snow tomorrow, especially in the morning.

After tomorrow morning in N TX done?

No, we still have the ULL to pass.

[GeauxTigers]

No, you are very likely to get more sleet and mixing possibly with snow tomorrow, especially in the morning.

After tomorrow morning in N TX done?

No, we still have the ULL to pass.

Great news! Thank you!

[orangeblood]

After tomorrow morning in N TX done?

Oh no, grand finale Wednesday!

Music to my ears!! Thank you!

Probably not the most enjoyable finale though, heavy frz rain…only saving grace would be a temp rise

[TropicalTundra]

So I'm confused. Is my area done now and things are shifting to the South and SE?

Jist lots of posts and trying to gather what's going on.

No, you are very likely to get more sleet and mixing possibly with snow tomorrow, especially in the morning.

What about here? Are upper levels still too warm? Been getting frz rain all day and temp is at 28. I think 925mb and above here is still too warm for any sleet.

[GeauxTigers]

Oh no, grand finale Wednesday!

Music to my ears!! Thank you!

Probably not the most enjoyable finale though, heavy frz rain…only saving grace would be a temp rise

Yes, don’t want power outages or dangerous travel for anyone, but wouldn’t mind a lil motor winter precip. But you’re correct, be careful what you wish for. Thank you!

[Ntxw]

So I'm confused. Is my area done now and things are shifting to the South and SE?

Jist lots of posts and trying to gather what's going on.

No, you are very likely to get more sleet and mixing possibly with snow tomorrow, especially in the morning.

What about here? Are upper levels still too warm? Been getting frz rain all day and temp is at 28. I think 925mb and above here is still too warm for any sleet.

Looking at 850s it's >10C south of Waco. That's 50F+ above which is too warm for sleet. 925mb is 30-32 so cold layer is much more shallow.

[rwfromkansas]

Was hoping for snow as the low comes out at the end but that’s not in the forecast but rather just rain. Better enjoy the white sleet tomorrow that’s on the ground.

[Quixotic]

My infinitely more accurate instant read BBQ thermometer has us at 23.8 degrees with heavy freezing drizzle now. I know. It’s not a Davis but it’s pretty on point although it’s at 4’ not 2M. Methinks anything heavy tonight or manana will be sleet or snow.