Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Breezy day here in Se TX ahead of the front. Pretty ugly out there honestly. Very stick feeling with all the humidity and showers around. I see many of the forecasts for this area still calling for highs in the 50’s for both Wednesday and Thursday. I seriously doubt we’ll get above 45 degrees both of those days with all the cloud cover and rain around after a strong front. Every year this happens where they forecast temps too high especially beyond 3 days. The afternoon temps just don’t warm up with cloud cover around like they expect them to. Not after a strong front anyway.

[wxman57]

Less than 24 hours left of this miserable warm, muggy air over Houston. Wednesday looks quite refreshing - mid 40s all day with light rain. Can't wait!

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF has a little bit of a mix bag come Thursday Night to Friday Morning for parts of Deep South Texas Friday morning the Euro has a temperature of 37 and raining for my area

[Tireman4]

Less than 24 hours left of this miserable warm, muggy air over Houston. Wednesday looks quite refreshing - mid 40s all day with light rain. Can't wait!

http://wxman57.com/images/GFS.png

Oh frickity frack, not this again. I swear I have been through this before..I think you lost a bet with Porta and you had to be a snow/cold miser for like a month? Sigh..LOL...

[Lagreeneyes03]

it’s actually going to happen within 3 or 4 days. Then yeah, I’ll have my hopes up, but all this hype about something that’s a week or two away and then ends up never happening is too frustrating. Not good for my health lol

For me it’s 1-2 days, and even then I don’t completely buy in until it’s falling from the sky. I’ve seen too many sleet and snow events be a cold rain due to some unforeseen warm layer.

Story of our lives here in NTX since Icemageddeon year pretty much. I'm changing my approach this year, not paying any attention to anyone saying we'll get winter precip, I'll just tell everyone it won't happen and then we'll be pleasantly surpised if it does. I just haven't read/seen anything from anyone that makes me ring the "a real winter is here" bell. We have to keep in mind that below normal temps for us can mean highs of 48 instead of 52 and lows of 34 instead of 38

[wxman57]

Less than 24 hours left of this miserable warm, muggy air over Houston. Wednesday looks quite refreshing - mid 40s all day with light rain. Can't wait!

http://wxman57.com/images/GFS.png

Oh frickity frack, not this again. I swear I have been through this before..I think you lost a bet with Porta and you had to be a snow/cold miser for like a month? Sigh..LOL...

I felt so sorry for all the cold weather lovers here last winter that I promised I'd let you all have a nice, cold, icy winter here this year. I'm doing my best. It's not easy.

[Brent]

Record high at least tied at DFW

I'm so ready for a record low...

[weatherdude1108]

Less than 24 hours left of this miserable warm, muggy air over Houston. Wednesday looks quite refreshing - mid 40s all day with light rain. Can't wait!

http://wxman57.com/images/GFS.png

Oh frickity frack, not this again. I swear I have been through this before..I think you lost a bet with Porta and you had to be a snow/cold miser for like a month? Sigh..LOL...

I felt so sorry for all the cold weather lovers here last winter that I promised I'd let you all have a nice, cold, icy winter here this year. I'm doing my best. It's not easy.

I started laughing when I read this thinking, is this the same person? Thanks for keeping the faith alive!

[Portastorm]

Record high at least tied at DFW

I'm so ready for a record low...

Same here in Austin. At 3 pm we had 84 at Camp Mabry which ties a daily high record from 1977. We usually see these kinds of warm ups before strong fronts, don't we though? I think there is a technical term which our pro mets and/or physics majors would know: adiabatic compression, maybe? Anyhow ... yes ... ready for the cold front down here too!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Record high at least tied at DFW

I'm so ready for a record low...

Same here in Austin. At 3 pm we had 84 at Camp Mabry which ties a daily high record from 1977. We usually see these kinds of warm ups before strong fronts, don't we though? I think there is a technical term which our pro mets and/or physics majors would know: adiabatic compression, maybe? Anyhow ... yes ... ready for the cold front down here too!

My grandpa could predict cold snaps and snowfall well before it would ever happen. No idea how, but he always used to say, "its gotta get warm before it gets cold". Seems like it always happens that way.

[Brent]

Record high at least tied at DFW

I'm so ready for a record low...

Same here in Austin. At 3 pm we had 84 at Camp Mabry which ties a daily high record from 1977. We usually see these kinds of warm ups before strong fronts, don't we though? I think there is a technical term which our pro mets and/or physics majors would know: adiabatic compression, maybe? Anyhow ... yes ... ready for the cold front down here too!

My grandpa could predict cold snaps and snowfall well before it would ever happen. No idea how, but he always used to say, "its gotta get warm before it gets cold". Seems like it always happens that way.

Is true really in history but this year the warmth has been wall to wall mostly

Still looking forward to at least december temps tomorrow

[Ntxw]

Is true really in history but this year the warmth has been wall to wall mostly

Still looking forward to at least december temps tomorrow

Probably will end up hottest year, if not top 3 unless December is remarkably below normal. The warmth has been unreal no doubt it and we are not alone.

But we have to be optimistic because at some point we will run out of luck with decent summers. We've had warm stretches in the summer but not a true wall to wall hot/dry Texas style summer since 2012. At some point the dry and hot trend from double Nina will strike in the summer. Next summer is as good as any to be a candidate for a 40+ 100F+ days style hot season. As miserable as the past few summers as they always are, they have been quite subdued by our standards.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like the calm before the chill.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
345 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...

Main highlight during the short term will be the abrupt temperature
fall with a strong cold front passage overnight through Tuesday
morning. A weak line of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
be likely along the front as it moves through South-Central Texas.
No hazards are expected with this line of showers/storms. Gusty north
winds of 30 mph are expected mid-morning Tuesday through the
afternoon and temperatures will be around 20F degrees lower than
today's values.

One last warm enjoyable afternoon is ongoing with temperatures well
above normal in the upper 70s and low 80s as southwesterly low-level
flow persists ahead of a equatorward shifting long-wave trough across
the Central Plains back across the Inter-mountain West. Cold front is
currently analyzed across central OK into the TX panhandle. It should
arrive into the north Hill Country near 4-5am, Austin near 6am, and
San Antonio near 8am and the southern areas by late morning. Limited
instability and weak dynamic forcing will be present with the
attendant front so thunderstorm coverage should be minimal with
mostly a quick moving line of showers anchored on the front. Rainfall
totals will be low from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch in
the east/southeast. While rain will end quickly initially behind the
front, clouds will remain intact with gusty north surface winds
underneath southwest over-running H850/700 flow. Surface winds will
be sustained 20 mph with gusts to near 30 at times Tuesday afternoon.
Afternoon temperatures will be 20 degrees colder then today.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mid/upper-level ascent
will strengthen with combination of isentropic upglide and QG
forcing in right entrance region of stronger H500/300 flow. GFS/NAM
soundings saturate vertically during this time with light to moderate
elevated rain showers blossoming from the west to the east by early
morning Wednesday and continuing through the entire day.

Wednesday is setting up to be a rainy, cold, and raw day.
Temperatures will fall to the upper 30s and low 40s Wednesday morning
and struggle to warm into the mid/upper 40s, if that. Evaporative
cooling and continued light to moderate rain showers overspreading
much of the region will keep temperatures locked in for most of the
day. Have trimmed a few degrees off guidance highs with more weight
towards raw model sounding guidance. Wet-bulb temperatures per
GFS/ECMWF fall to 35-37F across the highest elevations of the Hill
Country and the Southern Edwards Plateau Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday morning. Will need to watch if temperatures trend
colder but have left all precipitation type as rain for this
afternoon package. While it could be conceivable of some snow mixing
in with rain all the way down to surface, impacts should be
negligible.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...

Light to moderate elevated showers will be ongoing to start overnight
Thursday into Thursday morning as raw, cold conditions continue.
While no hazards are highlighted for this period, the upper
elevations of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau could be more
slick where greater cold rain chances will be in place. No freezing
temperatures are expected during precipitation accumulation.

A secondary long-wave trough axis will shift across the Central
Plains and finally increase the northwest and north momentum through
a deeper atmospheric column. This will act to drive drier air into
the region and precipitation will slowly end from north to south with
isentropic lift flipping to decent. All precipitation will end by
Thursday night as the trough axis passes E/SE of the region. A cold
night looks to be on tap Friday morning as dewpoints fall into the
upper to mid 20s with a widespread freeze across the north half of
the area.

A dry and near climate normal period is expected late week and
weekend as surface high pressure develops over Texas and low-level
flow returns to the east and south beginning early next week.
However, it appears another front could occur next Tuesday to negate
the full warm-up possibilities.

[Snowman67]

Less than 24 hours left of this miserable warm, muggy air over Houston. Wednesday looks quite refreshing - mid 40s all day with light rain. Can't wait!

http://wxman57.com/images/GFS.png

Oh frickity frack, not this again. I swear I have been through this before..I think you lost a bet with Porta and you had to be a snow/cold miser for like a month? Sigh..LOL...

I felt so sorry for all the cold weather lovers here last winter that I promised I'd let you all have a nice, cold, icy winter here this year. I'm doing my best. It's not easy.

He loves to torture us cold lovers.... He's laughing like a mad scientist

[Ntxw]

Central Texas folks should still keep an eye. The guidance is keeping your temps in the mid to upper 30s with precip falling and 5000ft temps close to 0C

NAM isn't as aggressive as the prior global runs at warming DFW up on Weds in the 40s and even the GFS now barely to 50

[South Texas Storms]

I'm looking forward to several days of wet and chilly weather here in south central and southeast Texas. Latest guidance is showing 1-2 inches of rainfall tomorrow through Thursday. Bring it on!

[Ralph's Weather]

Central Texas folks should still keep an eye. The guidance is keeping your temps in the mid to upper 30s with precip falling and 5000ft temps close to 0C

NAM isn't as aggressive as the prior global runs at warming DFW up on Weds in the 40s and even the GFS now barely to 50

Yep models look interesting, especially if the lower levels can moisten a tad. GFS showing snow into Parker Co, but with very dry low levels we will see.

[Ntxw]

Central Texas folks should still keep an eye. The guidance is keeping your temps in the mid to upper 30s with precip falling and 5000ft temps close to 0C

NAM isn't as aggressive as the prior global runs at warming DFW up on Weds in the 40s and even the GFS now barely to 50

Yep models look interesting, especially if the lower levels can moisten a tad. GFS showing snow into Parker Co, but with very dry low levels we will see.

Might get some sleet reports under the precip shield even if surface temps not to freezing

[Brent]

Are those snow totals on the nam realistic? The ground is gonna be so warm lol

[Snowman67]

Just got through looking at the global maps. It's amazing how warm Alaska and most all of Canada is for this time of year. The only minus 20F temps that I saw were way up in the far Northern territories of Canada (Nunuvat Territory). Looking at some of the forecasts for these areas, it seems that the above normal temps are going to continue for the next week at least.