#551 Postby EnnisTx » Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:41 am
NWS FW: Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday Night/ Through the next 24 hours, a potent storm system will be making its way through North and Central Texas. Given the complexity of this system, accumulating wintry precipitation will be possible along and west of US-281. This morning, some light freezing rain will be possible mainly on elevated surfaces. Major impacts are not expected due to the freezing rain. A rain/snow mix will be possible as far east as the I-35 corridor across North Texas, but accumulations appear unlikely along the immediate I-35 corridor. The much anticipated upper level storm system is now moving across the state of Chihuahua in northern Mexico. The unusually southward trajectory of this storm system, along with the tight baroclinic gradient along the Gulf Coast continue to complicate the winter weather forecast. Short-term guidance is in fairly good agreement that a surface circulation will develop along the coast and track to the northeast. The exact location and degree at which it turns northeastward will have huge implications on who sees rain or snow, and just how much snow will occur. A wobble of as little of 50 miles either way may make or break this forecast. Before any frozen precipitation begins tonight, the upper-level system will begin making a northeastward turn, toward North and Central Texas. Dynamic cooling aloft will lead to steepening lapse rates along and east of I-35 this afternoon. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/Kg will increase the potential for storms to contain small hail, around pea-size, with the most vigorous updrafts. Heavy rain will also be something that will need to be monitored given plenty of rain has fallen over the past 24 hours east of I-35. The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through this afternoon, at which point much of the heavy precipitation threat will have moved off to the east and northeast. Now, lets get back to talking about winter weather. Given the short-term ensemble and deterministic data, a slight eastward shift in the low has led to adding a mention of up to half an inch accumulation from Decatur to Granbury to Lampasas. This area, although it may be above freezing through much of the day, may experience a short burst of snow as the upper level system moves overhead. The Winter Weather Advisory has also been expanded slightly to the east to account for this trend. Farther to the west, the Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning given accumulations of 3-4 inches, with isolated higher amounts possible. There is still plenty of time for slight wobbles in this system, and the forecast will reflect the latest thinking through the rest of this morning/afternoon.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
