Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Portastorm]

Man, if this keeps up I'm definately going to have to wrap my plants and pray.

This brings up a question that my kids have been asking me ... one in which I don't have an answer. What happens to all of the trees that are starting bud right now if we get a major freeze? Do the buds die and then once spring comes they re-bud?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

They die and they start all over again, I think.

[jasons2k]

I think so too for the most part. However, I think fruit trees such as Peach trees have major problems and don't produce nearly as much fruit.

[Tyler]

192-276 the Ensembles look very cold, and the 0z EURO at day 7 begins unloading the very cold arctic into the lower 48 everywhere east of the Rockies...


http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

BRING IT ON!

Seriously, it will be nice to actually have a couple of days of winter.

[facemane]

If the Trees are just budding they will be fine. The problems happen
when they bloom,and are hit by a Freeze. I lost a season of pears
a few years ago. My trees were in full bloom,and got zapped by 25
degree weather in March.

[Tyler]

I bet that was in March 2002. It reached the low 20's, tieing an all-time record low for March at 22 degrees at IAH.

[Tyler]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

Arctic blast anyone? The trough continues to trend west, this is important, as that will determine if this really happens or not.

At any rate, grab those sweaters and jackets out of the closet, your going to need them!

[PTrackerLA]

Local met had highs for us dropping down through the 50's next week with low temps approaching freezing. It's about dang time! As far as the march 2002 freeze I remember it well. It was the coldest outbreak so late in the season ever, or something like that.

[Tyler]

Local met had highs for us dropping down through the 50's next week with low temps approaching freezing. It's about dang time! As far as the march 2002 freeze I remember it well. It was the coldest outbreak so late in the season ever, or something like that.

If the 12z GFS is right, your going to be much colder than that...

[Tyler]

12z GFS has some significant changes.

Changes for the better my friends. Anyone feel like an arctic outbreak?

First, this is the 0z GFS, for 0z Thursday (144hour)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

Notice how the ridge in the west is broad, therefore the trough in the east is shallow and positioned to the east of us, to where we only get glancing blows of arctic air.

NOW, take a look at the 12 GFS, for the exact same time, 0z Thursday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

Noticable changes. First, instead of the very broad ridge in the west, the ridge is now much more shallow, and stronger, poking all the way into NW Canada. Therefore, the trough is now positioned farther WEST, and so, we are in a MUCH better position to recieve the brunt of arctic shots. The trough is now such that the angle is much better. If it could be positioned just a bit further west, it would be perfect. I've noticed the GFS trend west with the trough, so we'll need to watch tonight's 0z run to see what it does (18z GFS is crap in the long range). The 12z GFS is MUCH better looking for significant cold than the 0z ever was...

AND BINGO . ARCTIC FRONT ON 12Z GFS AT 162 hour:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

Thats cold stuff my friends. Again, THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH, AND THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE IS IMPORTANT. This is getting really interesting. And look whats up in Canada, a developing 1040MB+ High. After this first punch, we may have yet one more...


Again, this is all depending on if the 12z GFS is correct, I am just spitting out what it says for us. I think something like this could happen, but we just need to continue to watch. Once the 12z ECMWF comes out, I'll comment on that as well.

Air Force Met, jeff, care to share any comments on this?

[facemane]

I bet that was in March 2002. It reached the low 20's, tieing an all-time record low for March at 22 degrees at IAH.

Yes it was. That was also the year the Blueberry crops were decimated
here in Mississippi. March has always been a tricky month,and that's
the reason I won't plant my tomatoes until mid april, when the Frost
danger is pretty much gone here in South Ms.

[jasons2k]

12z GFS has some significant changes.

Changes for the better my friends. Anyone feel like an arctic outbreak?

Changes for the better is a matter of perception. The plants sure as heck aren't going to like it, nor will I like it either.

[Tyler]

Yes, I know, I would just like some real winter temps for once. I guess I'm just a little excited, thats all...

[jasons2k]

I know what you mean, I used to be the same way when I lived in Dallas. It's just that we just moved here and I inherited 5 very beautiful, mature Majesty Palms valued at a few hundred $$ each from the previous homeowner. They have a cold tolerance down to about 27 degrees before they are killed. I didn't expect them to have a lifespan for more than 5 or maybe 10 years or so...but man it would just really suck to lose them in the very first winter. I'd like to enjoy them for at least ONE pool season. Plus I have countless hibiscus and other tender palms in my yard that I would lose as well - in all about $10K worth of landscaping I'd have to replace if we ever hit the mid 20's.

[boca]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES

That was taken from the NWS in Tampa this morning. I believe cold air is coming but to cool down to normal not 90's like you in Texas are experiencing. Lets just close winter and be done with it no more teasing around.

[Tyler]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES

That was taken from the NWS in Tampa this morning. I believe cold air is coming but to cool down to normal not 90's like you in Texas are experiencing. Lets just close winter and be done with it no more teasing around.

They are talking about south Florida. We here in Texas have a very good oppurtunity next week of a hard freeze.

Your winter is done, our's has just begun!

[jasons2k]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES

That was taken from the NWS in Tampa this morning. I believe cold air is coming but to cool down to normal not 90's like you in Texas are experiencing. Lets just close winter and be done with it no more teasing around.

Oh yeah, I sure hope that will apply to Houston as well

[Tyler]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES

That was taken from the NWS in Tampa this morning. I believe cold air is coming but to cool down to normal not 90's like you in Texas are experiencing. Lets just close winter and be done with it no more teasing around.

Oh yeah, I sure hope that will apply to Houston as well

Unfortunatley, no, it doesn't.

[jasons2k]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES

That was taken from the NWS in Tampa this morning. I believe cold air is coming but to cool down to normal not 90's like you in Texas are experiencing. Lets just close winter and be done with it no more teasing around.

Oh yeah, I sure hope that will apply to Houston as well

Unfortunatley, no, it doesn't.

That remains to be seen...I wouldn't be so confident we'll have a hard freeze just yet.

[Tyler]

I know what you mean, I used to be the same way when I lived in Dallas. It's just that we just moved here and I inherited 5 very beautiful, mature Majesty Palms valued at a few hundred $$ each from the previous homeowner. They have a cold tolerance down to about 27 degrees before they are killed. I didn't expect them to have a lifespan for more than 5 or maybe 10 years or so...but man it would just really suck to lose them in the very first winter. I'd like to enjoy them for at least ONE pool season. Plus I have countless hibiscus and other tender palms in my yard that I would lose as well - in all about $10K worth of landscaping I'd have to replace if we ever hit the mid 20's.

Pretty cool. Ya, I would want winter to end as well! Watch out late next week though, we could get into a hard freeze...