Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

The Rockwall ISD just gave in and cancelled classes "in an abundance of caution based upon NWS forecasts"

If only you had waited 20 mins to press Submit. Again.

Btw, where's Lucy?

I think you MIGHT have a graphic for her tomorrow..... we'll see.

[dhweather]

180
FXUS64 KFWD 230339 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
939 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.UPDATE...
AS THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING...A LARGE
AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED NORTH TO WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX INCLUDING TARRANT COUNTY. 850 MB WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
EAST OVERRUNNING THE COLD SURFACE AIR...BUT THEY HAVE PREVAILED
FROM THIS DIRECTION MOST OF THE EVENING WITHOUT DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. THE RAP SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH IS LIKELY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE COLD SURFACE LAYER. THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST OF THE DRIZZLE WILL END
AROUND THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE DRIZZLE IS ALREADY AND WILL
CREATE A THIN LAYER OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...METAL
OBJECTS...AND LIKELY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THAT ALREADY DO NOT
HAVE ICE FROM THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLIER. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL WATER REMAINING ON ROADWAYS TONIGHT MAY FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH MAY ALSO HELP TO EVAPORATE ANY WATER ON
ROADWAYS...BUT NOT WHERE DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING.

THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BETWEEN
1-3 AM...MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS...HOWEVER...IF
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING DUE TO HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
OF SLEET. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND MONITOR THE RADAR
TRENDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABLE TO
CONFIDENTLY MAKE THAT DECISION.

82/JLD

[stormlover2013]

What is the 00 gfs showing temp wise?

[longhornweather]

EWX says via twitter the SREF/HRRR alone warrant a WSW, but they will wait for more data.

What data are they waiting to see before making a decision?

[Wntrwthrguy]

EWX says via twitter the SREF/HRRR alone warrant a WSW, but they will wait for more data.

What data are they waiting to see before making a decision?

I'm not sure but they did just mention that they are staying with the WWA for the Austin area:



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
951 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.UPDATE...
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS.
FREEZING LINE STRETCHES FROM HAMILTON TO BRADY TO SONORA TO OZONA.
STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPS TO REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND EXTEND TO SOUTH AND EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ADEQUATELY
COVERING THE SITUATION.

[Ntxw]

That HRRR run is a little frightening. What kind of impacts would that much precip have?

With such cold temperatures, none of it will melt and stick on impact. You will quickly get several inches of sleet under a thunderstorm locally. 850mb front is sitting between Dallas and Tarrant counties, expect storms to line up and cross that boundary at it's heaviest.

What in the world is up with the latest GFS ?...completely loses the enhanced convection, has less than a tenth of precip for the Metroplex. Wonder if it initialized incorrectly ?

Certainly is mind boggling to me given all the short range guidance says otherwise including the NAM.

[longhornweather]

EWX says via twitter the SREF/HRRR alone warrant a WSW, but they will wait for more data.

What data are they waiting to see before making a decision?

I'm not sure but they did just mention that they are staying with the WWA for the Austin area:



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
951 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.UPDATE...
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS.
FREEZING LINE STRETCHES FROM HAMILTON TO BRADY TO SONORA TO OZONA.
STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPS TO REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND EXTEND TO SOUTH AND EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ADEQUATELY
COVERING THE SITUATION.

Seems strange with these models showing so much more potential frozen precip.

[HockeyTx82]

So are things starting to shift more south or is the overall precipitation shield growing south for later on? I am confused.

[Ralph's Weather]

At this point tomorrow looks rough for most everyone north of I-10 and along I-20 travel will be almost impossible. For details we will have to watch radar and short range models, the GFS and NAM to a lesser extent do not have the resolution to handle the convective nature of the precip. After the main areas of heavy precip we will stay showery with temps remaining in the 20s along and north of I-20 until Tuesday morning.
The models have not resolved how the main trough will evolve add it cruises or area Wed morning. The NAM shows an upper low dumping snow over NE Texas. The GFS shows a coastal low with much warmer temps aloft.

[Texas Snowman]

28 in Denison

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What in the world is up with the latest GFS ?...completely loses the enhanced convection, has less than a tenth of precip for the Metroplex. Wonder if it initialized incorrectly

Wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the gfs. For the last 24 hrs it has been lowering the amounts of precip. Had been showing a washout for most over here in LA all weekend up until friday and most everybody has received much of nothing. Also remember it was one of the only models that showed PHI and NY getting shafted by the blizzard while all others and everybody was saying it was wrong and would be wrong. But low and behold it was right.

[Ntxw]

28 in Denison

Those are temperatures that start priming up the roads. DFW is at 30. Time to watch the radar in SW and W Texas.

[Portastorm]

I'm wondering if both the HRRR and SREF are picking up on the enhanced moisture to our southwest and some Pacific tropical moisture entrained ... as srainhoutx mentioned earlier. If so, there could be some real forecast busts tomorrow.

[orangeblood]

What in the world is up with the latest GFS ?...completely loses the enhanced convection, has less than a tenth of precip for the Metroplex. Wonder if it initialized incorrectly

Wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the gfs. For the last 24 hrs it has been lowering the amounts of precip. Had been showing a washout for most over here in LA all weekend up until friday and most everybody has received much of nothing. Also remember it was one of the only models that showed PHI and NY getting shafted by the blizzard while all others and everybody was saying it was wrong and would be wrong. But low and behold it was right.

Around North Texas, something just looks off with this map from earlier runs though, complete outlier!

[HockeyTx82]

Where's Harold Taft when you need him? Man, Finfrock is of the old school but since NBC bought the Weather Channel he has lost some of his "pizzazz" I guess you could say. Just my ten cents.

Watching channel 5 now. I love how the local news people take a small frozen sign and make it seem it's the apocalypse.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The Rockwall ISD just gave in and cancelled classes "in an abundance of caution based upon NWS forecasts"

If only you had waited 20 mins to press Submit. Again.

Btw, where's Lucy?

She's hanging out in Wichita Falls and surrounding areas...

[Texas Snowman]

Schools closed all over, 1/4 inch of ice already outside, temps in 20s, more than an inch of precip here in Denison. Pretty good day. Or a pretty good bust.

[TheProfessor]

That HRRR run is a little frightening. What kind of impacts would that much precip have?

With such cold temperatures, none of it will melt and stick on impact. You will quickly get several inches of sleet under a thunderstorm locally. 850mb front is sitting between Dallas and Tarrant counties, expect storms to line up and cross that boundary at it's heaviest.

So things are looking good for Southern Denton County sleet rise right?

[Shoshana]

Just went from 41 to 36 here. I didn't think it was supposed to be this cold this soon...

[Texas Snowman]

Radar returns beginning to show near Midland.