Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

Temps look to be a really close call. If it's a cold rain again, I'll cry.

If it's going to snow, best bet for accumulating snow (based on 18z) would be along and north of I-20

Yeah saw that looks like we're straddling the line once again. I hope the picture becomes clear soon, and hopefully it's a good picture.

[Portastorm]

OK, so here is a snippet from the afternoon AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio. The problem I have with it is how can they be so sure of "little or no accumulation?" I guess they're suggesting that whatever wintry mix might fall won't last long until the entire column of air is saturated by Thursday morning. Quite frankly, I don't know how they can have much confidence in the entire forecast right now. Could be rain, could be a mix, could be a bust.

BY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER WITH MODELS STILL
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME AGREEING ON AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND THUS IS A VERY WET OUTLIER. BOTH THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS THAN HINTED AT BY THE GFS...BUT
STILL A WET PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE CONCERN THEN
SHIFTS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID OR A MIX OF WINTERY
PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR WEDNESDAY BECOMING A
SNOW/RAIN/SLEET MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED.
DESPITE THE FRUSTRATINGLY LOW CONFIDENCE OVER A MIXED-BAG
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN SHOULD WINTERY
PRECIPITATION OCCUR...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

[Ntxw]

Lets hope the models are underestimating the cold air or that the warmer air is slower to surge north aloft. NWS fw is more bullish with winter precip now and added a slight chance of rain\snow for tomorrow evening.

[Ntxw]

Temps look to be a really close call. If it's a cold rain again, I'll cry.

If it's going to snow, best bet for accumulating snow (based on 18z) would be along and north of I-20

Yeah saw that looks like we're straddling the line once again. I hope the picture becomes clear soon, and hopefully it's a good picture.

Several sources (JB, Larry etc) have all noted that the I-20 corridor is the axis for snowstorm(s) in the next few weeks. I think we could make it out to the other side happy.

[orangeblood]

What concerns me is that the wind will be coming out of a southeasterly direction for the majority of the event Thursday. At the same time, this airmass won't modify much with the snowpack being laid down to the north.

[iorange55]

One thing that is in our favor is that the models are always too quick to pull the cold air out, and it looks like it's doing the same thing with this next system. Even with it probably lifting the cold air out too fast it still shows some snow for us, so I think that's a good sign.

[Ntxw]

Lets hope the moisture shield pulls enough north to give good precip amounts. We'll have to wait and see how strong this system is in the coming days. Southeasterly is never a good sign for hefty totals lol but then again a north\northwesterly wind usually means shut off in precip...hmm

[gofrogs2]

I saw a grahpic on the fwnws home page that made me laugh these guys are out to lunch. The temps are starting to rend a tad colder which is good 30 would be perfect but the latest gfs has us at aobut 32 the entire event. I would say about 4-6 across the metreoplex.

[iorange55]

I saw a grahpic on the fwnws home page that made me laugh these guys are out to lunch. The temps are starting to rend a tad colder which is good 30 would be perfect but the latest gfs has us at aobut 32 the entire event. I would say about 4-6 across the metreoplex.

Wouldn't get too confident yet. I have a feeling the temps will be there, but I'm not so sure about the precip.

[gofrogs2]

Why the models have been preaching the precip for the last week there hasnt been on run when the storm was not there. its been good aaobut predicting precip thus far.

[iorange55]

Why the models have been preaching the precip for the last week there hasnt been on run when the storm was not there. its been good aaobut predicting precip thus far.

They haven't showed 4-6 inches of snow each time, and sometimes there is hardly any precip around here at all. It'll become more clear hopefully tomorrow, and Tuesday.

[Ntxw]

Better to stay conservative and have it overachieve vs the other way around. IMHO. Once we get into the NAM's realm (for the sake of better resolution) then we can start mentioning amounts I think if any. It's good to compare two sources and have a blend. Too bad EC and Canadian are so limited with free data.

Still hoping this system could stay cold enough for the Austin\San Antonio (Humungo cat 5 virga snowstorm in early December doesn't count!) area. I think it's time Portastorm gets some! S\E Texas too not to be left out.

[southerngale]

Several sources (JB, Larry etc) have all noted that the I-20 corridor is the axis for snowstorm(s) in the next few weeks. I think we could make it out to the other side happy.

*sigh* That seems to be the norm lately.

[Ntxw]

Wow...Larry cosgrove's thoughts tonight, could raise some eyebrows.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m2d7-Weather-Forecast-For-Houston-And-Vicinity-Monday-February-8-2010

WHO DAT?!

[msstateguy83]

*VERY* impressive system @ 66 hrs out still on the nam... i think it could mean major trouble for some of us
heading into next weekend,think its still WAY to early to say who will get what but it could be big!

[gofrogs2]

Whats it ssaying for the dfw area how much precip

[msstateguy83]

[gofrogs2]

Is the storm to our south or to our west.

[Portastorm]

FWIW, if you look at the 12z NAM at 500mb at 84 hrs and compare it to the newly issued 0z NAM at 500mb at 72 hrs, you'll see the upper level system over southern California looks a little stronger and the trough a little deeper in the new run.

[iorange55]

Larry is trying to get me excited, psh. It's not working.



stop that. no. I said no.