Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Larry is trying to get me excited, psh. It's not working.



stop that. no. I said no.

Keep it together man! he could be lucy in disguise...

[Ntxw]

0z GFS tonight still supports a potential winter storm for North Texas/West Texas later in the week. I'm starting to get more confident now that we're closer and there's been a few consistent runs.

[Portastorm]

0z GFS tonight still supports a potential winter storm for North Texas/West Texas later in the week. I'm starting to get more confident now that we're closer and there's been a few consistent runs.

Yeah but did you notice the 0z GFS has the upper level system further north and a bit weaker than the 12z run? Big changes too in upper dynamics over Canada between the two runs.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS tonight still supports a potential winter storm for North Texas/West Texas later in the week. I'm starting to get more confident now that we're closer and there's been a few consistent runs.

Yeah but did you notice the 0z GFS has the upper level system further north and a bit weaker than the 12z run? Big changes too in upper dynamics over Canada between the two runs.

I did, that's why I stated North and West Texas vs the southern shift, there would be less moisture but it would be further north with precip. Also GFS has the system slower than the 12z.

[iorange55]

I'm certainly liking this. I like that it looks to be more than a three hour thing as well. Which is all we've seen here this winter.

[Portastorm]

Maybe it's quibbling at this point but actually I think the 0z GFS is faster than the previous 12z run. For example, at 12z Friday morning, the 0z GFS has the upper low between Corpus and Houston. The 12z run had it near Del Rio.

Regardless, you North Texas folks look to be in business. I share your confidence (for your area at least). I think it may be a dicier proposition for my area.

[Ntxw]

Maybe it's quibbling at this point but actually I think the 0z GFS is faster than the previous 12z run. For example, at 12z Friday morning, the 0z GFS has the upper low between Corpus and Houston. The 12z run had it near Del Rio.

Regardless, you North Texas folks look to be in business. I share your confidence (for your area at least). I think it may be a dicier proposition for my area.

I sure hope you do Portastorm, still holding my breath for you guys.

[txagwxman]

I don't see the freezing rain in Houston from Larry ? Maybe just maybe a quick change over to snow Friday morning as the upper-level low tracks right over Houston, but that is 5 days away still and confidence is still LOW for Houston.

[srainhoutx]

I don't see the freezing rain in Houston from Larry ? Maybe just maybe a quick change over to snow Friday morning as the upper-level low tracks right over Houston, but that is 5 days away still and confidence is still LOW for Houston.

I agree. Del Rio, Austin, College Station to Lufkin and points N may be a different story. The 5h low is our only chance here in Houston at this time IMHO. With that said, the Upper Flow is getting better around hour 174, but that is a lifetime in the model world.

[txtiff]

Maybe it's quibbling at this point but actually I think the 0z GFS is faster than the previous 12z run. For example, at 12z Friday morning, the 0z GFS has the upper low between Corpus and Houston. The 12z run had it near Del Rio.

Regardless, you North Texas folks look to be in business. I share your confidence (for your area at least). I think it may be a dicier proposition for my area.

I just made reservations for Bossier City, LA..........For Saturday the 13th. I live just east of Dallas. Do you see us(DFW) having any travel issues with this storm. I know you don't know anything for sure, but can you tell me what the %'s may be in your opinion???? Thanks

[Portastorm]

Wow ... I'm probably the last person in the world you want to be asking! We have much smarter weather minds here like Wxman57 and txagwxman who could opine.

But my opinion ... hmm ... based on what I see, I'd say on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 meaning big-time travel issues in DFW and 1 meaning no worries ... I'd score it a "3" right now. Subject to change of course.

[txtiff]

Wow ... I'm probably the last person in the world you want to be asking! We have much smarter weather minds here like Wxman57 and txagwxman who could opine.

But my opinion ... hmm ... based on what I see, I'd say on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 meaning big-time travel issues in DFW and 1 meaning no worries ... I'd score it a "3" right now. Subject to change of course.

Lol....I know I quoted you however anyones opinion would be great!!! Thanks portastorm and I hope you get in on the winter weather as well. My sister lives not too far from you in Orange...

[Ntxw]

EC is a bit further south than it's previous run, which many agreed was too far north. I don't know what this means as far as precip because free data isn't enough!!! GRR temps look good though.

[somethingfunny]

I am convinced that the Saints will not win the Super Bowl, and it ain't gonna snow this week in Dallas.

[somethingfunny]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
307 AM
AT 3 AM WE ARE SEEING AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE...WITH SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. MCKINNEY
AIRPORT HAS PICKED UP 0.37 OF RAIN SO FAR. I EXPECT TODAY/S EVENT
TO CONTINUE IN THIS FASHION THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS LIKE ABOUT A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTH AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE NORTHEAST. CREEK AND RIVER
FLOODING CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. RAPID DRYING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR TONIGHT...AND WE HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF WINTER PRECIP OVERNIGHT. I CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEWFLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO PUT IN THE
FORECAST AND WOULD LEAVE NO IMPACTS. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOW 30S AT TIMES.

AS FOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM...NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE A WINTER MIX. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...SO
EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE ALMOST A HALF INCH OF SNOW FALL POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL MELT RATHER THAN ACCUMULATE. ISOLATED
TRAVEL PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO
CANTON...AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD 50S RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH LITTLE
MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR MONDAY TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF IS PROGGED INTO THE AREA.

Bears watching?

[Portastorm]

Excellent morning AFD out of NWSFO EWX which lays out the weather factors in the week ahead.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG BLAST OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEK.

FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE MORNING PACKAGE REFLECTS THE ALREADY AGREESSIVE GFS BASED
NUMBERS. SOME MODIFICATION COULD DEVLEOP AS THE COLD AIR MASS
REACHES THE SOAKED SOILS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO MAINLY LIGHT
FREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH ABOVE FREEZING
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE AIR
DRIES OUT FOR TUESDAY SETTING UP THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT FOR THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

A EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD GENERATE SYNOPTIC
LIFT AND LIGHT ELEVATED SNOW FALLING OVER MEXICO WESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS
SUFFICIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT THIS TIME...SOME SLEET COULD
ALSO DEVELOP. THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION...BUT THE MOISTENING AND COOLING EFFECTS COULD
INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WHEN AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH
BEGINS TO IMPACT TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BY WED NIGHT...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP COLUM OF TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING. THEREFORE A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TYPE
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WARMER NAM
MODEL STILL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH OF TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...
AND EVAPORATION OF MIXED PRECIPIATION MOVING INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY COULD ALTER LOW LEVEL PROFILES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED SLEET. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENT REMAINS LOW. THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR THE LARGER SYSTEM COMBINED WITH WARM
AND MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS LEADS ME TO THINK WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THE FALLING ICE MELTING ON CONTACT. THUS WILL NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS YET. FOR NOW...WILL ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WX EVENT
WITH THE HWO...SPS...AND GRAPHICASTS.

THE GFS REMAINS QUITE COLD AND WET WITH AN OVERRUNING PATTERN
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN IT REMAINS
AMONG THE STRONGER MODELS IN HANDLING THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES AND OVERRUNNING.

[Ntxw]

6z gfs has up to 6+ inches of snow\sleet along the I-20 corridor and sleet possible down to central Texas. NAM doesn't go out that far yet but still has a decent cut off low all the way to the Tx\NM region.

[srainhoutx]

Even HGX could not ignore the sounding data for areas N and W of Downtown Houston...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION... AREAS OF -RA STARTING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONG
LLJ ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE JET AND ASSOCIATED
-RA TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK
TO APPROACH NRN PARTS OF SE TX LATE THIS AFTN & EARLY EVNG AND
QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE COAST BY 9-10PM. WILL PROBABLY SEE A BAND OF
SHRA/ISO TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND COULD SEE A FEW EMBEDDED
STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE LINE...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE LACKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WIDESPREAD SVR WX THREAT.
LOOKING LIKE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...ESP COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT TAKE CARE OF THAT AFTER VERIFYING TIMING AND DETAILS.

MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF THE SUN ON TUES BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN BY EVNG.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE (FINALLY) BECOME IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE MID & EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FCST. ATMOS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN INTO MIDWEEK WITH AN ACTIVE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
APPROACHING TROF WED-FRI. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SOME RAIN TO BEGIN FALLING BY WED EVNG. AND WHAT IS SOUNDING LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD THIS WINTER...A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL AID IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOOKING LIKE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURS THEN
DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRI AS THE COASTAL LOW AND
UPPER TROF MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON NRN ZONES WED NT & AGAIN THU NIGHT TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTER PRECIP MIX. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS OFF AND ON
FOR A SEVERAL DAYS. STILL LOOKS BORDERLINE...BUT SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EVAP COOLING THAT COULD SWING THINGS.
47

[Portastorm]

I think evaporative cooling is going to be a MAJOR factor to watch as this storm unfolds for the borderline areas like Austin, College Station down to the northern 'burbs of H-town. Could make all the difference in the world ... that is until the entire air column saturates and then the process will shut down.

Lots of dewpoint watching ahead!

[srainhoutx]

That and wet bulbing. Also, the pattern looks to be locking in on a very active period that may not change anytime soon as well....

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
749 AM EST MON FEB 08 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 12 2010 - 12Z MON FEB 15 2010

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY IN THE MID-LEVELS
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA /BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/ FAVORS PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONES UNDER ITS BASE IN THE
LOWER 40S LATITUDE. THIS ALLOWS US TO DISCARD THE 00Z CANADIAN
WHICH LEAVES A CLOSED CYCLONE QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. DUE
TO THE PROGRESSION EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
AS WELL AS QUESTIONS REGARDING FUTURE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE TWO
STREAMS... CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR PIECE OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS LIKELY TO SHOW RUN-TO-RUN AND DAY-TO-DAY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING PROGRESSION AND PHASING. BOTH THE 06Z GEFS
MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ORDER TO RESOLVE DETAIL ISSUES...CHOSE TO
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GEFS MEAN
SOLUTIONS...WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS MADE PER 00Z MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE LOW PRESSURE AREA CLUSTERING...SUCH AS LATE IN THE PERIOD
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ROTH