Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[TrekkerCC]

NWS Fort Worth does not seem to be on board with this whole scenario for Thursday. Afternoon update should be interesting after they have had time to look at the new models.

While the ECMWF and CMC starting to line up with the GFS is encouraging, I doubt they will get real excited until Wednesday or so (more model support would probably make them more confident) as there are still huge questions about moisture availability, track of the upper level low, and other factors critical to forecast this upcoming weather system. I am sure FWD would like to error on the conservative side, rather than calling for a winter storm and then have nothing happen. However, I am becoming a bit more cautiously optimistic right now that we will see at least a half-inch of snow.

[PineyWoods]

For those in East Texas, just a little snippet from the Shreveport NWS -

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1022 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR WEDGE AT THE SURFACE HOLDING STRONG FROM A TYLER TO
NATCHITOCHES LINE AND WITH THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETTING
UP...HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING TEMPS NORTH OF THE I20 CORRIDOR INTO
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BACKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. LFK ALREADY
53 AT 10 AM WITH STRONG WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
WACO. DONT FORSEE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS
OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN SOME THUNDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES. TEMPS NORTH OF I30 JUST
BARELY HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING AND WON`T WARM MUCH TODAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A QUICK CHANGEOVER LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING AS THE COLD AIR
FILTERS IN SO NO MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK INTERESTING FROM A WINTER
WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. NEW 12Z GFS CONTINUES INDICATE PRECIPITATION
FALLING INTO A COLD AIRMASS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WILL
DISCUSS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE."

Would be nice to get a little snow here in the Tyler area.

[Big O]

I haven't seen this discussed yet, but doesn't the 0z European (days 9-10), show a deep trough over the central CONUS and Texas? What are the implications if this verifies?

[srainhoutx]

I haven't seen this discussed yet, but doesn't the 0z European (days 9-10), show a deep trough over the central CONUS and Texas? What are the implications if this verifies?

You are correct Big O. I would like to see another run or two from the ECMWF, but it does fit well with the MMW event as well an a severely tanking AO, NOA -EPO and +PNA seen in ensembles. Don Sutherland has been updating for those that would like to follow.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=107373&start=80

[mike mclennan county]

I haven't seen this discussed yet, but doesn't the 0z European (days 9-10), show a deep trough over the central CONUS and Texas? What are the implications if this verifies?

[wxman57]

I haven't seen this discussed yet, but doesn't the 0z European (days 9-10), show a deep trough over the central CONUS and Texas? What are the implications if this verifies?

It means I'll be miserable for at least another 2 weeks. I.E., lots of cold air across the country east of the Rockies.

[HockeyTx82]

I haven't seen this discussed yet, but doesn't the 0z European (days 9-10), show a deep trough over the central CONUS and Texas? What are the implications if this verifies?

It means I'll be miserable for at least another 2 weeks. I.E., lots of cold air across the country east of the Rockies.

Forgive my ignorance, but when you say east of the Rockies does that mean Canada all the way down to Texas eastward?

[wxman57]

I haven't seen this discussed yet, but doesn't the 0z European (days 9-10), show a deep trough over the central CONUS and Texas? What are the implications if this verifies?

It means I'll be miserable for at least another 2 weeks. I.E., lots of cold air across the country east of the Rockies.

Forgive my ignorance, but when you say east of the Rockies does that mean Canada all the way down to Texas eastward?

Yep.

[Ntxw]

Hmm, lets see if we can shift any of this south a bit more! For once the eastplexers could be the bullseye

12z gfs

[mike mclennan county]

TUESDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LOW
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN U.S. COAST. GFS40/ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATH OF THIS LOW THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK...BRINGING IT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND THEN
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY.

THIS WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT. AT THIS POINT...WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES FOR OUR AREA ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO MENTION
MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES. WE WILL KEEP THE SPS FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY
WEATHER GOING FOR THE AREA.

GRAPHICAL GFS SFC TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S OVER ANY PART OF THE CWA...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS IN THE GRIDS
ALREADY. WE WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
AREA...WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW COLD WE CAN GET EACH NIGHT AFTER
TUESDAY NIGHT.

From San Angelo Discussion

[Portastorm]

Of interest ...

[HockeyTx82]

Of interest ...

What does mean in terms of precip totals and types?

[katheria]

Hmm, lets see if we can shift any of this south a bit more! For once the eastplexers could be the bullseye

12z gfs

Shift that dark blue to the rowlett area and ill be doing a happy dance LOL
ill take anything right now thou

[Portastorm]

HockeyTx82 ... it means that you have to be feeling good if you live in the DFW area concerning your chances for wintry weather later this week. Anywhere near or just to the north of the low track should get in on the "action."

[Ntxw]

Can't take that too closely, it only gives a general idea of where the potential is. No way to know for sure locally how much where and when until the event happens Katheria.

[HockeyTx82]

Found this on the NWS Ft. Worth Site regarding Valentine's Day......

•2007 - Light snow fell in the Metroplex, but measurable snow (generally under 1 inch) accumulated in areas to the north and northwest.
•2004 - Widespread snow fell during the early morning hours, resulting in storm totals of 3 to 5 inches from the Metroplex northward.
•1996 - Temperatures rose to a record breaking 85°F.
•1978 - The largest 24-hour snowfall ever (12.1") began on the following day.
•1969 - There was a trace of freezing rain and sleet.
•1951 - The precipitation record for this holiday occurred with a modest 0.97" however, it was in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. The freezing and/or frozen precipitation amounted to 3.0". The lowest high for the date of 27° was also recorded.
•1949 - Snow melted as it fell.
•1908 - There was a trace of sleet.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dfeb14

Perhaps we are overdue for a repeat of 1978? wishing........

[bktkck]

I'm in Tyler and we've been north'd and south'd recently so it is nice to see us near the bullseye. I am going to be fired as weatherman at my hospital if nothing comes of this.

[Ntxw]

I don't think we'll get anything of that magnitude (though locally maybe someone could get a big enough burst to rival?). Nonetheless this shapes up to be a significant if not major snowfall(north Texas standards) at least in coverage. All of the models agree including the latest EC which looks a bit colder (could have implications in southern regions of Texas).

[gboudx]

Hmm, lets see if we can shift any of this south a bit more! For once the eastplexers could be the bullseye

12z gfs

Image removed

Is there a website that generates this graphic?

kelarie,

C'mon, us Rowlett/Rockwall folks would be ecstatic with just an inch of sneaux. Let's not get too greedy.

[TrekkerCC]

Hmm, lets see if we can shift any of this south a bit more! For once the eastplexers could be the bullseye

12z gfs

Image removed

Is there a website that generates this graphic?

kelarie,

C'mon, us Rowlett/Rockwall folks would be ecstatic with just an inch of sneaux. Let's not get too greedy.

http://www.wxcaster.com is the site in question! Just navigate to the Current Weather Info >> Model Forecast Charts section! An excellent site all around, it is worth spending time looking at the other charts as well.