Texas Winter 2010-2011

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ntxw, would you does us a favor for those living in LA and post that NAM snowfall model pic of LA. Please?

I posted it in the SE TX SWLA thread

http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

Found it. Appreciate it, but not what I was hoping I would see. I know it can and will change just was hoping it would show more snow furhter south and east.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Also, from KXII-TV met Steve LaNore about the frigid cold here in the Red River counties and southern Oklahoma.

Also a tidbit about next week's potential winter weather.


-----

Wind Chill Advisory Tonight; Severe Cold Wave through Friday
3:45p.m. Tuesday 1 February 2011

Roads remain very icy tonight and into Wednesday. Some breaks in the clouds allowed for partial melting followed by a quick re-freeze this evening. Cloud will tend to thin out with the loss of daytime heating, allowing for even colder temperatures tonight. He air flow is also coming from a colder air mass still located to our north so this will contribute to cooling as well.

A Wind Chill Advisory is posted through Wednesday morning. A stiff north to northwesterly wind of 20-30mph will put overnight wind chills in the minus 10 to minus 20 degree range. These are very rare wind chill numbers for Texoma and it is a dangerous cold situation. Everyone is urged to keep outdoor exposure to only few minutes at a time, and to wear a hat, gloves, safe shoes and a thick coat if you need to be outdoors.

Winds will ease Wednesday as the center of the arctic high approaches us. Skies are expected to clear Wednesday night-Thursday morning and winds will be quite light. These conditions, plus snowcover, set the stage for record lows Thursday morning. Some spots may fall a few degrees below zero on Thursday morning for the coldest temperatures in Texoma in 15 years.

A weak mid-level trough brings a chance of flurries Friday but little if any accumulation is expected. Westerly winds finally get us above freezing by Saturday afternoon.

The models are in agreement for the 3rd day in a row on the movement of another frigid arctic air mass early next week. If the computer output is correct, then the milder weekend weather will be replaced by windy and very cold conditions and a chance of snow by Monday.

A care package from Canada with love:

1 insulated jacket (large with air space)
1 pair heavy long johns
1 pair insulated gloves (mitts are much better at keeping fingers warm)
1 sweater
1 toque
1 face mask (you folks are REALLY going to feel it ;D
1 pair wool socks
1 pair winter boots
4 ice tires
pull all your tropical plants inside...covering them won't work now.

(we however had teenagers walking home today just wearing a hoodie.....wanted to take a pic for you folks...they however are a different breed)

[snow4444]

You know guys i would not be surprised if the DFW woke up to a coating of FRESH snow in the moring look out west on the radar...hmmmmm

[HockeyTx82]

Hmmmmmmmm......... http://www.wfaa.com/weather/radar?radar ... pe=ani&c=y

[iorange55]

This is ridiculous. Models getting stronger with next week it looks like. Wonder if next week is the motherload? Here I was thinking this was the motherload.

[HockeyTx82]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND GOING THROUGH THE CLIMO
DATA IT IS APPARENT THAT THIS COLD SNAP WILL BE THE COLDEST SINCE
THE INFAMOUS DEC 1989 EVENT. FOR SOME DFW RECORD INFO SEE PNSFWD.

CONVECTIVE CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CONTAINED SOME WEAK
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WITH SUNSET. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE...BUT THE REGIONS THAT
WERE HIT HARD WITH SLEET AND SNOW WILL HAVE ICY AND SNOW/SLEET
PACKED ROADS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW FREEZING AND LIMITED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TO HELP WITH MELTING.

THE CUMULIFORM CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISPERSE THIS EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION /WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA/ WILL CAUSE OUR TEMPS TO
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER SUNSET. SNOW PACK EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE PLAINS TO THE DFW DOORSTEP AND LIMITED MODIFICATION OF THIS
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL HELP US OUT. A HARD
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE PROLONGED DURATION OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND TEEN TEMPERATURES. USUALLY WHEN WE GET TEMPS THIS
COLD IT IS ON A NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IS SHORT LIVED.
WE ANTICIPATE ISSUES WITH FROZEN/BURST PIPES AND ALSO NON-NATIVE
VEGETATION NOT HARDY ENOUGH FOR THE RARE BUT EXTREME COLD TEXAS
WEATHER PRESENTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AROUND SUNSET BUT REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW 0 AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TOMORROW OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE. EXPECT ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SOME SNOW...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY TO
CAUSE MUCH ACCUMULATION. WILL CARRY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN VERY COLD TOMORROW AS NORTH
WINDS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT WITH LOWS NEAR TONIGHT/S FORECAST. MAV MOS
IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN PERFECT PROG MODEL VALUES BUT MOS
IS LACKING A STATISTICAL FOUNDATION SINCE IT HAS NEVER SEEN VALUES
LIKE THIS BEFORE HERE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THURSDAY BUT
CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE
BIG BEND WILL KEEP THE MODERATION OF TEMPS SLOW.

THIS UPPER LOW PRESENTS A FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THAT THE 500 MB
PATTERN IS A VERY FAVORABLE ONE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING
THE AMOUNT MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO BRING UP FROM THE
GULF. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ABSENCE OF A NEARBY BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FEATURE FROM INTENSIFYING. GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF
MEMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW FORECAST AND
ABOUT 3/4 OF THEM PUT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE
FORECASTING AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE EITHER THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF OR
GFS SOLUTION LOOK SIMILAR. BUT WE SHOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND KEEP
ACCUM LESS THAN 1 INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FARTHER
SOUTH CLOSER TO GULF MOISTURE. CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW PASSING
OVER MAY EXTEND THE SUBFREEZING STREAK UNTIL SATURDAY.

THANKFULLY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. LINGERING SNOW PACK OVER THE W/NW WILL
TEMPER WARM UP MORE THAN MODELS RECOGNIZE SATURDAY...BUT HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED BY SUPERBOWL SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY OR LATE
TUESDAY...BUT WILL BLEND SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO 500 MB PATTERN DISAGREEMENTS. NO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE COMES IN TANDEM WITH THIS FRONT AND ANY PRECIP WOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIGHT.

[iorange55]

THANKFULLY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. LINGERING SNOW PACK OVER THE W/NW WILL
TEMPER WARM UP MORE THAN MODELS RECOGNIZE SATURDAY...BUT HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED BY SUPERBOWL SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY OR LATE
TUESDAY...BUT WILL BLEND SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO 500 MB PATTERN DISAGREEMENTS. NO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE COMES IN TANDEM WITH THIS FRONT AND ANY PRECIP WOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIGHT.

Still lots of time for something to pop up next week! Let's hope for just a nice snowfall. After this crazy event it'd be nice to just have some moderate snowfall for a few hours.

[snow4444]

What are the models saying

[SouthernMet]

This is ridiculous. Models getting stronger with next week it looks like. Wonder if next week is the motherload? Here I was thinking this was the motherload.

Even with alot going on atm, we may need to switch gears and discuss early next week's potential.

[Turtle]

About 9 hours of snow here, but not even a dusting. The snow is extremely light and looks like dust.

Temps dropped from 63 to 38 in one hour this morning.

[Ntxw]

This is ridiculous. Models getting stronger with next week it looks like. Wonder if next week is the motherload? Here I was thinking this was the motherload.

My definition of a motherload: DFW below 0, Houston/Austin single digits. Likely snowpack entire northern half + of the state.

[HockeyTx82]

This is ridiculous. Models getting stronger with next week it looks like. Wonder if next week is the motherload? Here I was thinking this was the motherload.

My definition of a motherload: DFW below 0, Houston/Austin single digits. Likely snowpack entire northern half + of the state.

Will the source region be able to recharge in time for that to happen?

[HockeyTx82]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

CORRECTED RECORD LOW FOR FEBRUARY 4

...ARCTIC AIR GRIPS NORTH TEXAS...

PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE THE MERCURY DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BOTH TONIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING) AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
INCLUDES THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...
THE MERCURY MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL SATURDAY.


DALLAS/FORT WORTH - LOW TEMPERATURES
FORECAST RECORD
FEBRUARY 2 8 7 IN 1985
FEBRUARY 3 8 14 IN 1996, 1985, 1905
FEBRUARY 4 13 8 IN 1996


LAST TIME DFW AIRPORT RECORDED...
A RECORD LOW - DECEMBER 4, 2006 (22 DEGREES)
SINGLE DIGITS - FEBRUARY 4, 1996 (8 DEGREES)
LESS THAN 8 DEGREES - DECEMBER 23, 1989 (-1 DEGREE)
SINGLE DIGITS ON 2 CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS - DECEMBER 22-23, 1989


DALLAS/FORT WORTH - LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT SINGLE DIGITS
15 YEARS FEBRUARY 4, 1996 - PRESENT
8 YEARS FEBRUARY 2, 1951 - JANUARY 4, 1959
7 YEARS JANUARY 23, 1966 - JANUARY 12, 1973
7 YEARS JANUARY 22, 1918 - DECEMBER 19, 1924
6 YEARS JANUARY 13, 1912 - JANUARY 11, 1918


DFW - MOST RECENT EVENTS WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW 32F FOR MORE THAN 3 DAYS
84 HOURS JANUARY 14-18, 2007
87 HOURS DECEMBER 30, 2000 - JANUARY 3, 2001
107 HOURS JANUARY 10-15, 1997
137 HOURS JANUARY 30 - FEBRUARY 5, 1996 (8TH LONGEST ON RECORD)

DFW - LONGEST SUB-FREEZING STREAK ON RECORD
295 HOURS DECEMBER 18-30, 1983

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like some records might go down this week. You want cold, you get cold!

[Brandon8181]

I think it's safe to say that we are moving into the neighborhood.

Of what you ask? Of two of the worst back-to-back winters in Texas history.

Especially if the SE Texas snow event materializes later this week and then more Arctic cold and snow invades the state next week.

Pretty amazing stuff. Wow...

If you think about it and history,m the last 3 to 4 years have been pretty Amazing winters for Texas with significant snowfall events.

[downsouthman1]

I didn't see this posted in the forum.

Check this out!!!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/ ... obs_sn.php

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like some records might go down this week. You want cold, you get cold!

Yep, the Siberian Express was delayed (from earlier in January), not denied.

[iorange55]

This is ridiculous. Models getting stronger with next week it looks like. Wonder if next week is the motherload? Here I was thinking this was the motherload.

My definition of a motherload: DFW below 0, Houston/Austin single digits. Likely snowpack entire northern half + of the state.

You think we'll see that?

[Ntxw]

You think we'll see that?

Probably not. But It'll be the coldest back to back weeks of our generation. Maybe we will, never thought we'd even get to this close in La Nada lol. We get excited for a single digit night once in a few years, back to back is unheard of!

[Jarodm12]

i dont see any reason why his low to the west wont bring us atleast some accumilating snow fall