Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

If everyone is looking for the big one down south tomorrow, where does that leave counties north of DFW to the Red River?

It’s just that the people down South are looking for their big one. We still have the biggest chance for our area to come. Although I will say we had a heck of a morning here in DFW.

Most across the state north of I-10 will have extensive precip tonight into tomorrow into southern Oklahoma. It is the main show QPF wise. If it's freezing rain then a lot of that, if it's sleet then a lot of that too. Some areas in NW Texas may experience heavy snow.

[EnnisTx]

If everyone is looking for the big one down south tomorrow, where does that leave counties north of DFW to the Red River?

It’s just that the people down South are looking for their big one. We still have the biggest chance for our area to come. Although I will say we had a heck of a morning here in DFW.

Most across the state north of I-10 will have extensive precip tonight into tomorrow into southern Oklahoma. It is the main show QPF wise. If it's freezing rain then a lot of that, if it's sleet then a lot of that too. Some areas in NW Texas may experience heavy snow.

Yes Sir, I just hope we can pull that snow here for a little while before it moves out.

[rwfromkansas]

Just realized I’m getting low on distilled water that I need. Geez. Usually am good keeping stock.

Our driveway is a slope, so we don’t like to leave. May have to temporarily use spring water.

[EnnisTx]

Just realized I’m getting low on distilled water that I need. Geez. Usually am good keeping stock.

Our driveway is a slope, so we don’t like to leave. May have to temporarily use spring water.

I hearJack Daniels is distilled…

[Ntxw]

26F at DFW airport midday. Day 2 of 20s.

Anyone remember GFS and Euro? 40s? Light freeze briefly? 18Z Tuesday has passed and they were thoroughly whipped by the Canadian that far out. Clean beatdown.

[gboudx]

Eastbound I-30 into Rockwall is blocked at the Lake Ray Hubbard crossing. TxDOT said plows are on the way. So assuming this means its blocked on the Garland side by Bass Pro Shops.

[GeauxTigers]

If everyone is looking for the big one down south tomorrow, where does that leave counties north of DFW to the Red River?

Yes our area up north missed out on the big DFW event this morning. We haven’t gotten anything today.

[CaptinCrunch]

Just realized I’m getting low on distilled water that I need. Geez. Usually am good keeping stock.

Our driveway is a slope, so we don’t like to leave. May have to temporarily use spring water.

I hearJack Daniels is distilled…

You need to step up to the pro series of Bourbon, TX Bourbon Whiskey Barrel Proof

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman, I may be out of school even on Friday because of Power Outages!


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Uh-oh.png

[EnnisTx]

Just realized I’m getting low on distilled water that I need. Geez. Usually am good keeping stock.

Our driveway is a slope, so we don’t like to leave. May have to temporarily use spring water.

I hearJack Daniels is distilled…

You need to step up to the pro series of Bourbon, TX Bourbon Whiskey Barrel Proof

I’m old and cantankerous, love my Jack and Coke.

[Iceresistance]

Saw a report of 3/10 inch of Ice and 1/2 inch of Sleet in Fort Worth.

[Texas Snowman]

26F at DFW airport midday. Day 2 of 20s.

Anyone remember GFS and Euro? 40s? Light freeze briefly? 18Z Tuesday has passed and they were thoroughly whipped by the Canadian that far out. Clean beatdown.

You have championed these issues and ideas for days, and stuck to your concerns. Well done!

[Iceresistance]

Reports of a Glaze of Ice causing crashes in Northern San Antonio and all of Austin, TX.

[bubba hotep]

26F at DFW airport midday. Day 2 of 20s.

Anyone remember GFS and Euro? 40s? Light freeze briefly? 18Z Tuesday has passed and they were thoroughly whipped by the Canadian that far out. Clean beatdown.

It wasn't just a busted temp forecast. The Canadian had the better H5 and upper jet configuration from a ways out, which allowed it to have a more accurate temp forecast. In fact, the cold bias of the Canadian played in its favor as we see temps overperform all the time with the Canadian setup. It's usually hard to beat the GFS/Euro when they line up, but they both lined up wrong at H5, etc. It wasn't as simple as, "Oh, cold air always gets farther south and over performs," and it was more that the GFS/Euro were wrong about way more than just their surface temp depictions.

[CaptinCrunch]

Saw a report of 3/10 inch of Ice and 1/2 inch of Sleet in Fort Worth.

That's about right, I got about that here in Mansfield. Just roll the recyclables to the curb and the sleet and what freezing rain was mixed in is nice and solid.

[Iceresistance]

Saw a report of 3/10 inch of Ice and 1/2 inch of Sleet in Fort Worth.

That's about right, I got about that here in Mansfield. Just roll the recyclables to the curb and the sleet and what freezing rain was mixed in is nice and solid.

This is eerily similar to the Cobblestone Ice event in DFW in December 2013. Ice and Sleet mixed together at the same time.

[orangeblood]

26F at DFW airport midday. Day 2 of 20s.

Anyone remember GFS and Euro? 40s? Light freeze briefly? 18Z Tuesday has passed and they were thoroughly whipped by the Canadian that far out. Clean beatdown.

Has to be biggest bust by the FW office too…had 58 F and light showers for today from Friday last week. 30F plus bust from 4-5 days out, big “F” on this semesters report card!

[Ntxw]

26F at DFW airport midday. Day 2 of 20s.

Anyone remember GFS and Euro? 40s? Light freeze briefly? 18Z Tuesday has passed and they were thoroughly whipped by the Canadian that far out. Clean beatdown.

It wasn't just a busted temp forecast. The Canadian had the better H5 and upper jet configuration from a ways out, which allowed it to have a more accurate temp forecast. In fact, the cold bias of the Canadian played in its favor as we see temps overperform all the time with the Canadian setup. It's usually hard to beat the GFS/Euro when they line up, but they both lined up wrong at H5, etc. It wasn't as simple as, "Oh, cold air always gets farther south and over performs," and it was more that the GFS/Euro were wrong about way more than just their surface temp depictions.

I agree completely. But the GFS/Euro 5h was not awful either. And the fact they continued to pedal too warm despite 5h correction shows there is a flaw, in particular set ups. I even noted well before in advance that the OPs would try to do this even in a so-so 5h pattern (pots and pans?).

We love to look at things west to east but that just doesn't work in cold air damming episodes. It's more than just cold air beats x and y.

[Texas Snow]

NWS thoughts on upcoming DFW precip timelines visible in their aviation update:

Freezing rain and sleet showers have moved east of D10 but
will continue across Central Texas for the next couple of hours.
After this round of precipitation exits to the east, lingering
-FZDZ or -FZRA is expected this afternoon and into the evening.
However, we should see a lull in precipitation overnight. MVFR
ceilings will continue tonight, though there is a low chance
ceilings will be in the low VFR category instead.

Our next round of precipitation will arrive on Wednesday. The TAF
currently advertises an onset time of 14Z; however, it`s possible
this could be pushed back to late morning/midday. This round of
precipitation is expected to continue through the end of the
extended TAF period.

North winds near 10 to 15 knots will continue today, but wind
speeds will be below 10 knots on Wednesday.

[Gotwood]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/wint ... IceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.