Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Extremeweatherguy]

We're getting about a 70% snow/rain mix on the south side of OKC right now w/ a temperature of 34-35F. No accumulations yet at such high temperatures, but some of the flakes are quite large and once we cool some I wouldn't be surprised to see rapid accumulations later today.

[random_in_okc]

heavy snow falling at the airport now

[lrak]

Welcome to the forums, which airport is reporting heavy snow

[random_in_okc]

Welcome to the forums, which airport is reporting heavy snow

will rogers

[Extremeweatherguy]

No significant accumulations here just south of OKC, but it has been snowing on and off for most of the morning. It is mainly just drizzle right now but it looks like another snow band is moving in as I type this. Behind this band though it seems like a decent break may be on the way, with the question becoming what develops later today? The forecast calls for more significant snow bands later this afternoon, but I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

[RNGR]

thats either super heavy rain, false return, or CRAZY snow around Little Rock.. temps look to be around freezing

[vbhoutex]

thats either super heavy rain, false return, or CRAZY snow around Little Rock.. temps look to be around freezing

Probably a mix of sleet and snow. Normally when we see yellow like that on radar in a cold regime it that we think would produce snow it is sleet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Beyond today's system, Thursday is starting to also look quite interesting in terms of winter weather. For the southern half of Oklahoma, the upcoming system on Thursday has the potential to be much more significant than the current storm IMO. The 12z GFS is generating snowfall totals of 5.1" in Oklahoma City, 6.6" in Norman, and 4.3" in Ardmore during the day on Thursday. Areas south of the Red River into north Texas might get hit the hardest though. The GFS is showing upwards of 8" in parts of that region! Needless to say, amounts that high in north Texas would be fairly incredible.

Overall, here is a nice summary of what to expect...
~ Another system is looking likely to impact the southern plains on Thursday.
~ Snow is the most likely precipitation type north of I-20 with rain/snow/sleet mixing possible all the way to I-10 deep into Texas.
~ For areas south of I-40, the Thursday storm will likely be more significant than today's.
~ Some areas between I-20 and I-40 could pick up over 6" of snow, with a few 8"+ areas not out of the question, especially south of the Red River.

Stay tuned!

[Extremeweatherguy]

As for the current storm --> We are getting another nice little snow band now south of OKC. No significant accumulations here yet though, and it looks like time might be running out for much more than a dusting or possibly up to an inch from this storm. Just north of here though, towards downtown OKC and north and west of the city, it is a different story though. Many in that area have already picked up 1-2"+ today based on various reports I have seen..most of that due to the extremely heavy band they experienced earlier this morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Norman NWS just decided to cancel the WWA for our area.

All in all this system was not too exciting for my part of town. We might still pull off a dusting before it is all over with, but even that looks questionable with temperatures still just above freezing. In the end it looks like the models (GFS and NAM) were actually fairly accurate in their output for our area over the last few days. They were a little too warm, but overall their forecast of little to no snow accumulation seems to have played out pretty well (except for those few spots that happened to receive the 1-2"+ amounts with this morning's heavy band).

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z model cobb output snowfall totals for the late week storm...

18z NAM (through 12am Friday)
Oklahoma City, OK = 4.3"
Norman, OK = 2.6"
Ardmore, OK = 1.9"
Fort Worth, TX = 1.0"
Dallas, TX = 1.1"

18z GFS
Oklahoma City, OK = 0.8"
Norman, OK = 1.0"
Ardmore, OK = 0.8"
Fort Worth, TX = 0.0"
Dallas, TX = 0.0"


http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html

UPDATE: The 00z models look much less promising for Oklahoma, showing just some flurries with may be a few areas of very light accumulations (dusting to 1").

[Peanut432]

What about Sw oklahoma and parts of the panhandle for the storm on Thursday.....say around Childress.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It got very chilly here tonight after the strong front pushed through. We went from low-mid 30s for most of the day down to temperatures in the lower 20s now with wind chills in the single digits!



Brrr.

By sunrise we will probably be into the teens with wind chills hovering in the vicinity 0-5F. Winter is obviously nowhere near over for the southern plains just yet!

[Ntxw]

Contrary, euro and canadian looks wetter\colder compared to the GFS and NAM. Though I have difficulty reading those models. Correct me if Im wrong.

[BlueIce]

this looks HUGE EWG i have to agree. i also think portions of nw tx could even get in on this... i would expect this to rival the christmas eve blizzard!

Swing and a miss, if it would have been just a few degrees colder that may have played out. My university cancelled night classes tonight. I imagine they won't be so quick to call it next time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the 00z NAM, it appears as though the Thursday event still needs to be watched very closely across the southern half of Oklahoma. The latest run is developing some decent snow bands from the I-40 corridor southward during the Thursday afternoon through Friday morning period. Depending on where and if these bands set up, some parts of the state could potentially pick up a couple of inches of snow out of this.

12PM THURS (simulated radar):


6PM THURS (simulated radar):


12AM FRI (simulated radar):


6AM FRI (simulated radar):


Storm QPF:

If a 10:1 snow ratio played out and there was no melting, then that would equate to 3-8" of snow near the Red River, and 1-5" of snow between the Red River and I-40. Areas north of I-40 would generally get an inch or less.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS is not quite as impressive as the NAM for Oklahoma, but still shows the potential for some good snows in the counties bordering the Red River. Up here closer to I-40 it looks like the GFS is just showing a few flurries or very light snow showers at best, with perhaps only a dusting of accumulation or less in most places.

[Ntxw]

EWG take a look at the energy coming down from Canada associated with the potential clipper mentioned for the northeast. GFS is having a hard time with it. HPC few days ago mentioned this effecting the mid-atlantic region with this storm's track. NAM had this feature mingling with the southern storm at the red river valley. Could be interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, that piece of energy looks interesting ntxw. Hopefully the next few model runs will help to hammer out its potential impact on the region/storm system more clearly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest NAM looks slightly less favorable for significant snows (more than a dusting of accumulation) reaching I-40, however it does still indicate a chance of accumulating snows as you get closer to the Red River..

24-hr QPF valid 6am Friday:


If this run played out exactly, then the southern two tiers of counties bordering the Red River could perhaps pick up 2-3+ inches of snow during the day on Thursday. Further north, toward I-40, it would be mostly just some scattered flurries or light snow showers during the late afternoon and evening with most areas only picking up an inch or less of accumulation. North of I-40 the snow intensity would drop off dramatically, with only a few flurries here and there and no accumulations (expect may be a dusting in the eastern part of the state).