Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

I'd like to see the Rocky Mountain states to lose the reds and oranges and be replaced with the prettier blues, greens, and barnies.

Like I said, that ridge out west needs to back off a bit. Couple hundred miles would be nice.

[Iceresistance]

Ummmm, that's a uptrend and a half

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEHCJ.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEHCJ.gif

Ensembles are not innocent either. I just think the quality of cold air is quite good this season so far, that's probably what causes these trends when it comes closer. You can fail with AO/NAO etc but the WPO sources the air from Siberia and builds it over Canada.

https://i.imgur.com/GMw8ZlS.gif

Even the GEFS isn't safe with this trend either:


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEHVw.gif

[Brent]

Yeah its still not perfect by any means but there were well known people here talking about 70s for highs last week we still have barely hit 50 and have yet to have one day near normal this month

The trend is definitely our friend

[Iceresistance]

Yeah its still not perfect by any means but there were well known people talking about 70s for highs last week we still have barely hit 50

The trend is definitely our friend

I only got up to 43 this afternoon, that was weird for sure

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Yeah its still not perfect by any means but there were well known people here talking about 70s for highs last week we still have barely hit 50 and have yet to have one day near normal this month

The trend is definitely our friend

Its an interesting pattern for sure. We need a little se ridging to stall fronts, but not too much imo.

[Brent]

Yeah its still not perfect by any means but there were well known people here talking about 70s for highs last week we still have barely hit 50 and have yet to have one day near normal this month

The trend is definitely our friend

Its an interesting pattern for sure. We need a little se ridging to stall fronts, but not too much imo.

Yeah I mean I wish it wasn't so dry but on the other hand if we were torching like people claimed it definitely isn't going to snow so I mean whatever

[Iceresistance]

Yeah its still not perfect by any means but there were well known people here talking about 70s for highs last week we still have barely hit 50 and have yet to have one day near normal this month

The trend is definitely our friend

Its an interesting pattern for sure. We need a little se ridging to stall fronts, but not too much imo.

Yeah I mean I wish it wasn't so dry but on the other hand if we were torching like people claimed it definitely isn't going to snow so I mean whatever

The highest temperature in this "Torch" is maybe lower 60s

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Its an interesting pattern for sure. We need a little se ridging to stall fronts, but not too much imo.

Yeah I mean I wish it wasn't so dry but on the other hand if we were torching like people claimed it definitely isn't going to snow so I mean whatever

The highest temperature in this "Torch" is maybe lower 60s

There have been torches even in the coldest winters. I hope if this winter is front loaded, we cash in earlier rather than later. Lots of moving parts

[Ntxw]

Yeah I mean I wish it wasn't so dry but on the other hand if we were torching like people claimed it definitely isn't going to snow so I mean whatever

The highest temperature in this "Torch" is maybe lower 60s

There have been torches even in the coldest winters. I hope if this winter is front loaded, we cash in earlier rather than later. Lots of moving parts

Cold also begets cold sometimes, this isn't your typical Nina, it's quick to die off so not guaranteed the front loaded only thing either. I think last year proved that forcing can change, this isn't a bonafide mod or strong Nina to really overwhelm the traditional thinking.

In fact Nina's of late have proven (for us) the coldest blasts have been in February.

[Brent]

The highest temperature in this "Torch" is maybe lower 60s

There have been torches even in the coldest winters. I hope if this winter is front loaded, we cash in earlier rather than later. Lots of moving parts

Cold also begets cold sometimes, this isn't your typical Nina, it's quick to die off so not guaranteed the front loaded only thing either. I think last year proved that forcing can change, this isn't a bonafide mod or strong Nina to really overwhelm the traditional thinking.

In fact Nina's of late have proven (for us) the coldest blasts have been in February.

Right? I highly doubt winter is over in January. It might be east of here but I bet not here

I bet that's our best window for a big storm like usual January or February

[Ntxw]

Fog and mists redeveloped over the same region as last night. Might not burn off quick enough before cold front tomorrow.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

The highest temperature in this "Torch" is maybe lower 60s

There have been torches even in the coldest winters. I hope if this winter is front loaded, we cash in earlier rather than later. Lots of moving parts

Cold also begets cold sometimes, this isn't your typical Nina, it's quick to die off so not guaranteed the front loaded only thing either. I think last year proved that forcing can change, this isn't a bonafide mod or strong Nina to really overwhelm the traditional thinking.

In fact Nina's of late have proven (for us) the coldest blasts have been in February.

We can't predict the future. I hope it's colder than one thinks overall this winter. Trough is way too far east currently. Its always a fear of mine for it to warm-up and stay warm. LC said that the mjo isn't even in phase 8, and he said it straddles 4,5,and 6 and linear 6/7.

[Stratton23]

the MJO is most certainly in phase 8 right now, hes way off on that, if it was in phase 4,5,6 wed likely be torching right now

[Ntxw]

Yeah that one baffles me. It's P8 per cpc sources and looping back to 7/8.

[Stratton23]

CMC on the reload, yikes, thats some very cold air moving south, beyond next weeks front, monster ridge spiking in Alaska

[rwfromkansas]

For me the late week cold front is the surprise. It was hardly even on the radar not long ago and went from 0-70mph regarding temperature expanse this quickly. That's such a hard turnaround for the models from the long to medium range.

https://i.imgur.com/mvI0n2O.png

Yeah I swore we just said a few days ago that things were warming up until right before Christmas, then the motherlode would drop. Seems to be trending more consistent cold.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah I mean I wish it wasn't so dry but on the other hand if we were torching like people claimed it definitely isn't going to snow so I mean whatever

The highest temperature in this "Torch" is maybe lower 60s

There have been torches even in the coldest winters. I hope if this winter is front loaded, we cash in earlier rather than later. Lots of moving parts

Cosgrove is going back-loaded with he dying Nina, so I think it's not the typical Nina in the sense that it's weaker, not stronger.

[Brent]

So I read Larry's thing he is confused about the mjo but mentioned 2021 as an analog around Christmas New Years timeframe

He also mentions very cold air building in Canada

[HockeyTx82]

I guess we have to wait and see what happens in the near to long term future but one thing I can be for certain is the dense fog. On the way home my gosh we just got in from Six Flags and when I hit 2449 going west off of 35 to head back to Ponder I could hardly see the road in some instances.

[Stratton23]

lol the CFS has a very cold christmas