(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Ivanhater]

44.8 right now, temps continuing to drop off and has been a light rain all day

[southerngale]

I just dropped to 40° - it had been 41° for a while. Most assuredly colder than originally expected just a day or so ago. I have a feeling that even if we do get cold enough, the precip won't fall at the right time. I know "feelings" don't mean much though. lol
Maybe it's because that's just the way it always seems to happen.

Anyway, I can do without dangerous, icy roads. I just want some surprise snow! hehe

[PTrackerLA]

It's currently 41 here in Lafayette and it sure feels like winter again today, haven't had a cold/cloudy day around here in ages it seems. Kind of surprised about how little precipitation is out there today but if we were seeing rain right now there's no doubt we'd be in the upper 30's at least. I really don't see anything upstream on the radars for us so not expecting much rain tonight and the chances of seeing wintry precip are slim to none.

[jasons2k]

EWG if you want ice you need the dewpoint to fall below 32, at least upper 20's. If the dewpoint is 32 and it's 39 0r 40 outside when it starts to rain, it won't fall all the way down to 32. The temp will only fall about 1/3, MAYBE 1/2 the way down to the dewpoint in evap. cooling before they are equal.

I still don't expect any ice in Houston metro (thank God!), and definitely not any sleet. The cold air is too shallow, and it's not even subfreezing.

[aggiecutter]

The road conditions, bridges and overpasses, in Texarkana are starting to get pretty icy as the temperature has fallen below freezing to 31. Currently, the precip is light and is expected to remain light for the rest of the day. However, another upper level disturbance is expected to approach the area tomorrow-tomorrow night. With temps expected to be well below freezing at the onset of this upcoming event, road conditions around NE Texas could become very dangerous come tomorrow and tomorrow night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG if you want ice you need the dewpoint to fall below 32, at least upper 20's. If the dewpoint is 32 and it's 39 0r 40 outside when it starts to rain, it won't fall all the way down to 32. The temp will only fall about 1/3, MAYBE 1/2 the way down to the dewpoint in evap. cooling before they are equal.

I still don't expect any ice in Houston metro (thank God!), and definitely not any sleet. The cold air is too shallow, and it's not even subfreezing.

Yes, I don't expect anything in the Houston metro, but I still feel that northern suburbs have a shot at freezing rain and sleet. Also, with evaporative cooling, the temp. and dewpoint may initially meet above 32F, but then they can fall together. Pretty much I expect temperature and dewpoint to be very close, if not the same, as each other tomorrow morning. I would not say sleet is out of the question either...in fact some models have been showing sleet all the way down to Houston..and in north Texas (where the cold air is also shallow) there have been reports of sleet and even snow...all it will take is a pocket of thicker cold air or a small pocket of cold air in the medium atmosphere to get some isolated sleet reports mixed in. I still think that any freezing precip. south of Conroe is going to be "iffy" though..so I will wait and see how things evolve this evening.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS in Beaumont is calling for a chance of freezing rain for them overnight! Be careful southerngale...roads may get slick for you tomorrow morning. Here is the forecast:

Tonight...Cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening...Then a chance of rain and light freezing rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

[Ivanhater]

44.0 right now, still goign down at a good clip, still waiting on the new discussion to come out

[plainsman]

EWG if you want ice you need the dewpoint to fall below 32, at least upper 20's. If the dewpoint is 32 and it's 39 0r 40 outside when it starts to rain, it won't fall all the way down to 32. The temp will only fall about 1/3, MAYBE 1/2 the way down to the dewpoint in evap. cooling before they are equal.

I still don't expect any ice in Houston metro (thank God!), and definitely not any sleet. The cold air is too shallow, and it's not even subfreezing.

Yes, I don't expect anything in the Houston metro, but I still feel that northern suburbs have a shot at freezing rain and sleet. Also, with evaporative cooling, the temp. and dewpoint may initially meet above 32F, but then they can fall together. Pretty much I expect temperature and dewpoint to be very close, if not the same, as each other tomorrow morning. I would not say sleet is out of the question either...in fact some models have been showing sleet all the way down to Houston..and in have been reports of sleet and even snnorth Texas (where the cold air is also shallow) there ow...all it will take is a pocket of thicker cold air or a small pocket of cold air in the medium atmosphere to get some isolated sleet reports mixed in. I still think that any freezing precip. south of Conroe is going to be "iffy" though..so I will wait and see how things evolve this evening.

arlington in between Dallas and fort worth reported light snow at 1100 am according to the fort worth nws

[jasons2k]

The colder air is deeper N. TX esp. since the 850mb front has cleared the DFW area. It just won't be deep enough for any sleet here. If it happens, I'll eat crow but I don't exactly have it thawing out or the grill fired-up. I think the northern suburbs are safe. Maybe Hunstville...if you want to see it that much it's a 45 min. car trip. I don't know if it'd pay off though with today's gas prices

[Extremeweatherguy]

The colder air is deeper N. TX esp. since the 850mb front has cleared the DFW area. It just won't be deep enough for any sleet here. If it happens, I'll eat crow but I don't exactly have it thawing out or the grill fired-up. I think the northern suburbs are safe. Maybe Hunstville...if you want to see it that much it's a 45 min. car trip. I don't know if it'd pay off though with today's gas prices

I'm still not so sure. If Beaumont is calling for freezing rain, then I have no reason to believe it wouldn't happen here too. Also, the NWS in Corpus Christi is saying that their northern areas may see some pockets of freezing rain...which would include Victoria (which is to our south). I guess I am not quite sold either way yet...to me I still need to see what happens this evening before making a call either way on the situation.

[jasons2k]

Read the AFD juts posted by Houston-Galveston. Looks like Houston is in the clear. As posted earlier the core of the cold air is heading EAST. The CAA will have a hard time dropping us to freezing (it will ultimately lose the battle.....)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Read the AFD juts posted by Houston-Galveston. Looks like Houston is in the clear. As posted earlier the core of the cold air is heading EAST. The CAA will have a hard time dropping us to freezing (it will ultimately lose the battle.....)

I just read it. Nowhere in the AFD does it say the cold air is going east. It also says that they are still not set on the situation..and that is why no advisories have been issued yet. I would not say we are "in the clear" either. I have seen crazier things happen before. One example was in Raleigh, NC in 2000...I went to bed expecting an inch of snow and woke up to over 24" with 5-6 foot snow drifts. Another time was with hurricane charley. At 10am that morning it was forecast to hit Tampa, but by noon the track shifted over 100 miles further SE. I will wait until I see where things are this evening before making my judgement on the situation...I think areas south of I-10 will be safe regardless though.

[aggiecutter]

What is falling from the sky? Unknown Precipitation...

LINK...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

[Furious George]

From Houston AFD - good to hear they mention why the models are misleading - seems like intialization was too low as I suspected. Places south of Huntsville looking increasingly like they are in the clear.

SHORT TERM...CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS EXTENT OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND IF AND HOW MUCH PRECIP MIGHT FALL. CURRENT TRENDS
AND ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL REMAIN SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT IN AMOUNT OVERNIGHT. AS
FOR TEMPS...BOTH NAM AND GFS TEMP GUIDANCE TOO COLD - NAM STARTS AT
29 DEGREES FOR CLL AT 18Z WHILE GFS IS 31...BUT ACTUAL IS 39... SO
AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT PAYING TOO CLOSE ATTENTION TO EITHER. FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE DAY TO OUR NORTH MORE HELPFUL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS
TO REACH 32 CLL TO LFK BY MIDNIGHT AND HOVER IN THE 30 TO 32
RANGE UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF COLUMBUS TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. REST OF SE TEXAS REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THE
VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY COVERAGE OF PRECIP...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST BUT MENTION POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What is falling from the sky? Unknown Precipitation...

LINK...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

that usually means sleet.

[jeff]

Cold arctic air mass remains in control of the region today producing miserable conditions.

Temps. have remained steady in the upper 30's and low 40's since sunrise.

Shallow arctic dome (2500 ft thick) continues to be overrun by moist S flow above the surface leading to low clouds and widespread drizzle. Ceiling have improved this afternoon and no indication of upstream short waves over Mexico may indicate the rain chances should be zeroed out. However, weak lift continues over the region and small amounts of light rain or drizzle may continue through Sunday...amounts will be very light.

Now to temps. cold air advection continues with north winds in the 10-15mph range. Freezing temps. north of a Temple to Texarkana line will slowly drop southward this evening with the northern counties falling below freezing around 1000pm and then the freeze line holding up from around Columbus to Conroe to Livingston by morning.

Feel the threat for light freezing rain and freezing drizzle is small given the lack of rainfall today and no visible ripples in the upper air flow upstream of our area. It should be noted that even a small amount (couple hundredths) of freezing drizzle or rain can make for slick road conditions. Any small ice threat will be north of Harris County and along and north of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston.

Arctic dome begins to erode Monday with highs finally breaking 50. Surface warm front crosses the area Tuesday with warm and humid conditions returning ahead of the next front Wednesday and a stronger front late Friday or early Saturday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest dew points (4pm):

Hooks = 36F (lowest it has been all day. It has dropped 2F in the last two hours)
IAH = 37F (un-changed from last hour)
Conroe = 35F (un-changed from last hour)

[Furious George]

Nice analysis Jeff. This event really seemed to sneak up on us - and at one point I was thinking we might see something in the Houston metro area, but now that seems very unlikely.

After this, the forecast through the end of Feb doesn't really have any major arctic fronts coming down, so this was likely our last chance for the frozen stuff. March does have the rare event - but it's just that - rare. Oh well, maybe next winter.

[jeff]

Nice analysis Jeff. This event really seemed to sneak up on us - and at one point I was thinking we might see something in the Houston metro area, but now that seems very unlikely.

After this, the forecast through the end of Feb doesn't really have any major arctic fronts coming down, so this was likely our last chance for the frozen stuff. March does have the rare event - but it's just that - rare. Oh well, maybe next winter.

It is very difficult to get the cold and the moisture at the same time this far south. We were "spoiled" in 2004 with the Great Snowstorm, before that one has to go back to 1997 for a signficant icing event. The fact is it just does not happen that often this far south. We have a much better chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone than seeing snow or sleet during the winter.