Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Snowluvr]

Very interesting forecast for TX this week. We will probably see a few flurries north of I-20 tonight and then the stage is set for what could be a major winter storm. The HPC actually as a 20% of a foot or more of snow near the Metroplex through 0Z Friday. Not sure I have ever seen that. Looks like a 24 to 36 hour perios of light to moderate snow. Temps look to remain at or just above freezing for most of the event. Looks like the perfect snow for me. Grassy and elevated surfaces covered with most of the roadways remaining wet. From Waco to Jacksonville to Center, a significant accumulation is looking more likely to me, around 3 to 5 inches. Someone will probably see more than 8 inches. BUFKIT data on the 12Z GFS puts 10 inches down in Tyler at a 10:1 ratio. This will be a very wet snow and probably take an hour or two to really get accumulations. I look for a 7:1 ratio but that still puts down a large swath of 7 inches. The next 48 hours will be fun to watch to say the least to see how this system develops.

Here is my latest blog write up. The snowfall accumulation map is from the 0Z GFS, 12Z GFS has more. Also, remember the meteogram in BUFKIT is backwards, time moves from right to left.
http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2010/02/r ... -this.html

What are the chances we get a decent snow in southeast Ms on Thursday night and Friday? It's been several years since we've had measurable snowfall here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS cobb output obtained at the following link ( http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html ) doesn't look good for those wanting big snows. Let's hope this is not a trend! In the 12z run it was showing 6+ inches for the metroplex region, but in the 18z run it is now showing 0 inches and keeps temperatures just warm enough for a very wet snow or a rain/snow mix (and thus very little actually sticks). Being that this is an 18z run though I wouldn't buy into it too much. Let's wait and see what the 00z GFS has to offer up. Hopefully for north Texas snow lovers it will reverse back to higher numbers!

DFW output = http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdfw.dat
DAL output = http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdal.dat

The NWS, HPC, and the best of all Wxman, all forecast snows if not significant snows for I-20. I feel good about that, the models are going to shift on the details until we get to the event. 6z and 18z are good trends but it's the 0z and 12z that I mostly base information on.

Also EWG I would keep an eye in southwest Oklahoma. NAM and GFS both show a good band coming through that region from Northwest Texas on Thurs.

Yeah and I still think you guys are in for a good event too, I was just pointing out something of interest I noticed when going through the latest model data. If it continues to show low amounts in later runs though, then it might be worth taking note of. The models did the same thing up here in Oklahoma for today. They kept showing 0-1.5" accumulations for OKC a few days out, but that didn't seem right. In fact, the NWS was forecasting up to 3-8" of snow for OKC at one point! In the end though, the highest totals the city saw today were near 2-3.5" on the north side, with virtually nothing down here on the south side (besides flying flakes). Hard as it was to believe a few days ago, the models actually wound up being right in their prediction of lower snowfall totals. I am not saying the same thing will happen in Dallas with this upcoming event, as I personally do not believe it will (yet), but it definitely is something to watch if it becomes a trend in later model runs. With borderline surface temperatures and low snow ratios it is extremely hard to pinpoint snow totals until the event is actually happening since the effect of melting and wet surfaces is so unpredictable until you see just how heavy/persistent the snow turns out to be.

[Ntxw]

Also the FW weather service stated the models (and other weather offices too) have slowed this system down. They point that because so, the warmer air has more time to work in and therefore put out rain. My logic is, I thought if the storm slows, wouldn't that kick up the snow totals? Assuming it's the storm and energy that's surging the warm air north versus the air modifying. I have very basic knowledge on this, perhaps someone could explain.

[cwp419]

Gonna be a close call here in Central Texas:

http://weather.admin.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/1238.GIF

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so I am about to go to the gym and just read that the trend is going to warmer now? I hope when I get out and catch up on the thread that things look better. Just for fun I made a bet with my boss that if we are closed on Thursday or Friday cause of snow he buys me breakfast, if we get nothing or come in to work I buy him breakfast. He does not make that call for us being open or not so that won't be up to him, but might have I jumped the gun? I told him the trend from the last run so he is already telling me what he likes and where he wants eat. He wants to eat at the Gaylord Texan for breakfast....... Give me some good news please.......

[BrokenGlass]

It would be kinda funny if, once the FW NWS got on board, the storm were to fizzle. But not that funny. Dallas is due for a good dump.

[iorange55]

As long as the 0z's are on board, I'll be fine. But if they're close to the 18z run I will go cry, and never watch the models again.

[Weatherdude20]

As long as the 0z's are on board, I'll be fine. But if they're close to the 18z run I will go cry, and never watch the models again.

Same here.

[Peanut432]

What does this mean for the southern Texas panhandle south of 1-40 and adjecent parts of SW Oklahoma? Anybody care to throw out an estimate for this region on Thursday. I promise not to hold you accountable Thanks in advance

[DentonGal]

As long as the 0z's are on board, I'll be fine. But if they're close to the 18z run I will go cry, and never watch the models again.

Same here.

Ditto - oh wait! I can't even read a model! Uh, well, I'll quit reading everyone's interpretation of the models!

[Weatherdude20]

Cricket sountrack time?

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove thoughts...

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... ary-9-2010

[iorange55]

The fact that the pro mets are pretty sure of themselves this far out is encouraging, and I guess it's not wise to get depressed because of one run. Especially it being the 18z.


I need to chill.

[Weatherdude20]

Me too.

[Peanut432]

I'd like to thank all you guys that take your time to answer questions and post maps, prediction ect...

It is greatly appericated

[gofrogs2]

Id take what the 18z run spit out for north texas anyday, six inches owulld be good and it show shannigans again next monday right after the storm.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I've been observing these forums for quite some time, good to see there's a bunch of other weather geeks out there aren't pros. Just noted on the hpc that they have upped Austin's chances for freezing rain, since I'm rooting for Portastorms winter weather too, at least it looks like you'll have some type of frozen stuff falling, still keep the fingers crossed for snow down there. Of course, it's not written in stone for dfw yet either. Btw, I've been watching the forums for a couple of months I definately appreciate the pros that keep on coming in to keep our heads on straight

Southerngal, I've done the same thing you do many times between Denison and the oklahoma side of lake texoma. Oklahoma is always a bit more bullish on winter weather, it's amazing how much difference a few miles and different forecasters can make some times. Been through Zavalla and it's lovely little "suburb" many times.

[Dustan78]

Been reading the board for a while now, and i just wanted to say thanks to all the people on here giving us the goods on the weather. This next storm if it pans out, could give me 4 to 6 inches of snow for my 32nd birthday, doesnt get much better than that!!

[gofrogs2]

Maybe more or alot more well see.

[Portastorm]

Hey DFW Stormwatcher, welcome to S2K! Thanks for the well wishes. I'm hoping we all can get some action this week.

Didn't know about the HPC update. Good news though for those of us in the Austin area.