Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

EWX has updated its forecast for the Austin metro area indicating that up to a half inch of snow accumulation is possible by morning.

[Wntrwthrguy]

EWX has updated its forecast for the Austin metro area indicating that up to a half inch of snow accumulation is possible by morning.

Maybe we will get lucky and finally get over that 1 inch hump almost 10 years to the day!

[Ntxw]

Interrupting the show for an important message. We need to talk about the upcoming pattern. The EPO index is noteworthy as is the WPO index. More on the subject after the current system...stay tuned.

Back to your regular programming.

[Tireman4]

EWX has updated its forecast for the Austin metro area indicating that up to a half inch of snow accumulation is possible by morning.

Well I'll be. Long live the PWC. I do not believe it. I think this system will provide more than what folks thought.

[Houstonia]

Latest from jeff lindner, Anyone waiting for school cancellations will probably continue to wait until the early morning hours:

Not a whole lot of change early this evening….

Full 18Z (noon) guidance packages are in and continue the trend which started around 12Z (600am) this morning of a drier and warmer event. Feel the snow chances can pretty much be pulled from most of the area at this point as maybe a dusting over the far northern areas.

Attention then turns to if we will have enough moisture and if the surface temperature is below freezing to result in freezing rain and ice accumulation. Upstream dewpoints are brutally dry (sub 0) over the Dallas area suggesting a large amount of dry air is pouring into the region. Dewpoints at College Station are already in the teens and continuing downward. Onset of precipitation will result in a quick temperature fall as the precipitation cools the air column toward the dewpoint. Question is becoming just how much precipitation will actually fall. Guidance continues to trend drier showing liquid amounts of .05-.10 of an inch across much of the area which is way down from .15-.30 early today…which would fall short of local warning criteria of .12 of an inch.

.05-.10 of an inch of liquid is still enough to produce significant problems on the roadways, but the surface temperature has to be below freezing and I would really like to see it at or below 30. Current indications are that the surface temperature will be between about 31-33 most of the day on Tuesday. It is just impossible to know for certain if we will be closer to 31 or 33 which is going to make a really big difference on ice accumulation and problems on the roads. For widespread ice formation on the bridges and overpasses would really like to see 29-30 on the surface air temperature.

Other item this evening is a slightly sooner onset of the precipitation and will move timing up by 2 hours. Already seeing good radar returns out west of Austin and surface reports of sleet/snow…so think this is the onset of the precipitation and extrapolation of its eastward movement has it into the area around 600am.

I will have the next update prior to 400am and the morning news cycle and hopefully prior to last minute decision making cut off times.

[ndale]

Schools in the central TX area already announcing delays tomorrow.

[aggiecutter]

EWX has updated its forecast for the Austin metro area indicating that up to a half inch of snow accumulation is possible by morning.

I just noticed the Oz NAM had a lollipop of 1.5" of snow for the Austin area. It won't happen. I won't let it.

[ravyrn]

Can we quit posting bust? For heaven's sake, the event hasn't even started yet.

[South Texas Storms]

EWX has updated its forecast for the Austin metro area indicating that up to a half inch of snow accumulation is possible by morning.

If you get some snow tonight Porta please post some pictures! We're rooting for ya!

[Tireman4]

Interrupting the show for an important message. We need to talk about the upcoming pattern. The EPO index is noteworthy as is the WPO index. More on the subject after the current system...stay tuned.

Back to your regular programming.

Did you see what is on the PWC Channel tomorrow at 8 am.

How to Make Your Flapjacks Look Like Tornadoes: Cooking with Porta. I just love it. .



Back to the S2K Channel

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Interrupting the show for an important message. We need to talk about the upcoming pattern. The EPO index is noteworthy as is the WPO index. More on the subject after the current system...stay tuned.

Back to your regular programming.

Oh come on now. We bored NoTX people need some entertainment.

[Portastorm]

EWX has updated its forecast for the Austin metro area indicating that up to a half inch of snow accumulation is possible by morning.

I just noticed the Oz NAM had a lollipop of 1.5" of snow for the Austin area. It won't happen. I won't let it.

I know you're trying hard with that Omega block, aggiecutter!

It's still the NAM to me which makes me somewhat skeptical. But like they say on The X Files ... I want to believe.

[ROCK]

Latest from jeff lindner, Anyone waiting for school cancellations will probably continue to wait until the early morning hours:

Not a whole lot of change early this evening….

Full 18Z (noon) guidance packages are in and continue the trend which started around 12Z (600am) this morning of a drier and warmer event. Feel the snow chances can pretty much be pulled from most of the area at this point as maybe a dusting over the far northern areas.

Attention then turns to if we will have enough moisture and if the surface temperature is below freezing to result in freezing rain and ice accumulation. Upstream dewpoints are brutally dry (sub 0) over the Dallas area suggesting a large amount of dry air is pouring into the region. Dewpoints at College Station are already in the teens and continuing downward. Onset of precipitation will result in a quick temperature fall as the precipitation cools the air column toward the dewpoint. Question is becoming just how much precipitation will actually fall. Guidance continues to trend drier showing liquid amounts of .05-.10 of an inch across much of the area which is way down from .15-.30 early today…which would fall short of local warning criteria of .12 of an inch.

.05-.10 of an inch of liquid is still enough to produce significant problems on the roadways, but the surface temperature has to be below freezing and I would really like to see it at or below 30. Current indications are that the surface temperature will be between about 31-33 most of the day on Tuesday. It is just impossible to know for certain if we will be closer to 31 or 33 which is going to make a really big difference on ice accumulation and problems on the roads. For widespread ice formation on the bridges and overpasses would really like to see 29-30 on the surface air temperature.

Other item this evening is a slightly sooner onset of the precipitation and will move timing up by 2 hours. Already seeing good radar returns out west of Austin and surface reports of sleet/snow…so think this is the onset of the precipitation and extrapolation of its eastward movement has it into the area around 600am.

I will have the next update prior to 400am and the morning news cycle and hopefully prior to last minute decision making cut off times.

however the 0Z model package night be changing its tune...lol. 0Z GFS forthcoming...

[ravyrn]

Looking at last night's 0Z NAM, temps @ Hobby and Sugar Land are about 10F warmer than forecast. I'm still sure temps will fall, but I'm interested in what caused the blob of warmer air.. roughly from Katy, to Crockett, to Beaumont. Do you think it was the shallow cold air getting dammed up behind the Ouachitas?

[aggiecutter]

Interrupting the show for an important message. We need to talk about the upcoming pattern. The EPO index is noteworthy as is the WPO index. More on the subject after the current system...stay tuned.

Back to your regular programming.

I was looking at the 12z EURO earlier, and it appears to me that there might be a significant severe weather outbreak the middle of next week in northern and eastern Texas, lots of divergence aloft with a cold pocket coming through.

[Snowman67]

Latest from jeff lindner, Anyone waiting for school cancellations will probably continue to wait until the early morning hours:

Not a whole lot of change early this evening….

Full 18Z (noon) guidance packages are in and continue the trend which started around 12Z (600am) this morning of a drier and warmer event. Feel the snow chances can pretty much be pulled from most of the area at this point as maybe a dusting over the far northern areas.

Attention then turns to if we will have enough moisture and if the surface temperature is below freezing to result in freezing rain and ice accumulation. Upstream dewpoints are brutally dry (sub 0) over the Dallas area suggesting a large amount of dry air is pouring into the region. Dewpoints at College Station are already in the teens and continuing downward. Onset of precipitation will result in a quick temperature fall as the precipitation cools the air column toward the dewpoint. Question is becoming just how much precipitation will actually fall. Guidance continues to trend drier showing liquid amounts of .05-.10 of an inch across much of the area which is way down from .15-.30 early today…which would fall short of local warning criteria of .12 of an inch.

.05-.10 of an inch of liquid is still enough to produce significant problems on the roadways, but the surface temperature has to be below freezing and I would really like to see it at or below 30. Current indications are that the surface temperature will be between about 31-33 most of the day on Tuesday. It is just impossible to know for certain if we will be closer to 31 or 33 which is going to make a really big difference on ice accumulation and problems on the roads. For widespread ice formation on the bridges and overpasses would really like to see 29-30 on the surface air temperature.

Other item this evening is a slightly sooner onset of the precipitation and will move timing up by 2 hours. Already seeing good radar returns out west of Austin and surface reports of sleet/snow…so think this is the onset of the precipitation and extrapolation of its eastward movement has it into the area around 600am.

I will have the next update prior to 400am and the morning news cycle and hopefully prior to last minute decision making cut off times.

however the 0Z model package night be changing its tune...lol. 0Z GFS forthcoming...

Tomball ISD just cancelled classes for tomorrow.

[gboudx]

Interrupting the show for an important message. We need to talk about the upcoming pattern. The EPO index is noteworthy as is the WPO index. More on the subject after the current system...stay tuned.

Back to your regular programming.

I was looking at the 12z EURO earlier, and it appears to me that there might be a significant severe weather outbreak the middle of next week in northern and eastern Texas, lots of divergence aloft with a cold pocket coming through.

Steve McCauley sorta alluded to it earlier. His Stat method is still hitting this at 60% but he cautions it all hinges on if the system comes in negative. It sure would be nice to feel some moisture in the air. These negative dew points are terrible.

[stormywaves]

Houston ISD is closed for tomorrow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The temp here is not moving. It looks like the cold air in South Central Tx will begin to bleed east towards us now. It is 9 o clock now and we just ticked up .2 degrees to 54.3F lol.

[Ntxw]

Interrupting the show for an important message. We need to talk about the upcoming pattern. The EPO index is noteworthy as is the WPO index. More on the subject after the current system...stay tuned.

Back to your regular programming.

I was looking at the 12z EURO earlier, and it appears to me that there might be a significant severe weather outbreak the middle of next week in northern and eastern Texas, lots of divergence aloft with a cold pocket coming through.

Steve McCauley sorta alluded to it earlier. His Stat method is still hitting this at 60% but he cautions it all hinges on if the system comes in negative. It sure would be nice to feel some moisture in the air. These negative dew points are terrible.

I wasn't so much portraying any specific storm threat. But that the indexes have reached levels seen earlier in the season.