Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

Normally, I never or very seldom post a model run out 384 hours. Too much can change in that span of time, but, what the GFS 384 hour run depicts below could be a sign of things to come. It shows a potential coastal storm with the the potential of wintry precip across the interior /Piedmont region of NC into Virginia.

I just wanted to post finally something that could have that impact in the region, but we will see. Are we finally beginning to see a shift in the pattern heading into December?

[Hammy]

Something interesting I've noticed in the long-range CFS model is a recurring showing of some degree of snow for Georgia in the last week of December. It's been showing intermittently for about a month now.

[northjaxpro]

GFS 204 hour shows a potential Cold Core Upper Low with moisture pushing through the Deep South, with 540 thickness covering much of North and Central Alabama.

This could suggest the potential of wintry precip (sleet,wet snow) across Northern MS, North and Central Alabama and the TN Valley region next Monday, Dec 7. Just something to watch over the next week or so for those looking for some wintry weather.

[Hammy]

Given the climate models and the stubborn pattern I'm starting to wonder if Georgia will even have a winter this year. The GFS in particular is doing with the cold weather what it was doing in 2013 with the hurricane season: it's showing a nice cold front until about the five day mark, once within that timeframe it goes up and over, taking the rain and cooler weather with it.

It's like we're getting a La Nina winter during one of the strongest El Ninos recorded

[northjaxpro]

Check this out. Record high temperatures could be tied or broken this weekend across areas of the Deep South. Boy, this a bummer for those who look forward to colder temps, as we should be getting this time of year. Granted the sun angle is at its lowest this time of year, and the warmth may not be "scorching' as it is during the late spring into summer. But, still readings this warm well into December is a bummer for cool weather lovers like yours truly.

Cities in Alabama that will challenge records this weekend:

SATURDAY, DEC 12

BIRMINGHAM 78 (1971)
MONTGOMERY 82 (1971)
TUSCALOOSA 79 (1971)
ANNISTON 77 (1971)

SUNDAY DEC 13

BIRMINGHAM 79 (1931)
MONTGOMERY 80 (1931)
TUSCALOOSA 76 (1991)
ANNISTON 73 (2007)


There are finally signs that changes are on the horizon. There is a cold front forecast to move through the Deep South region late this week, and will bring in a much cooler air mass to at least bring temperatures back to near normal by Friday into next Saturday (12/19 -12/20). Also, long range GFS is also trending to a cooler,wet and stormier pattern for the Southern tier of the CONUS as we head toward New Year's Day as the ugly side of El Nino may finally come as we head into January.

[Hammy]

I'm wondering when (or if at all) we're finally going to start getting the stream of (relatively) lower-latitude low pressure systems moving through the SE off the Gulf or southern Midwest. The weather pattern, even though 14 days, looks far too much like October for my liking.

[GTStorm]

Check this out. Record high temperatures could be tied or broken this weekend across areas of the Deep South. Boy, this a bummer for those who look forward to colder temps, as we should be getting this time of year. Granted the sun angle is at its lowest this time of year, and the warmth may not be "scorching' as it is during the late spring into summer. But, still readings this warm well into December is a bummer for cool weather lovers like yours truly.

Cities in Alabama that will challenge records this weekend:

SATURDAY, DEC 12

BIRMINGHAM 78 (1971)
MONTGOMERY 82 (1971)
TUSCALOOSA 79 (1971)
ANNISTON 77 (1971)

SUNDAY DEC 13

BIRMINGHAM 79 (1931)
MONTGOMERY 80 (1931)
TUSCALOOSA 76 (1991)
ANNISTON 73 (2007)


There are finally signs that changes are on the horizon. There is a cold front forecast to move through the Deep South region late this week, and will bring in a much cooler air mass to at least bring temperatures back to near normal by Friday into next Saturday (12/19 -12/20). Also, long range GFS is also trending to a cooler,wet and stormier pattern for the Southern tier of the CONUS as we head toward New Year's Day as the ugly side of El Nino may finally come as we head into January.

Yeah but even this cold blast is getting weaker and weaker in the models as the weekend approaches. Wouldn't be surprised if the actuals turned out to be in the 70's. Again. Seems like that's always the case. Just for once I'd like to see the forecasts be wrong on the "other" side.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Christmas Even temp forecast. Look how incredibly warm this is across the eastern 2/3 of the country! I would venture to say we would see record high temps across many areas of the country if this were to verify.

[northjaxpro]

A very large, stout ridge is being shown by the models to set up shop across the Eastern CONUS Christmas week. I am about to give up on winter this season if this trend continues. Unbelievable indeed!

[otowntiger]

And I thought an el nino winter meant we would be cooler and wetter than usual in Florida. Wow. This has been the exact opposite. I wish I we could occasionally get a cool day where I don't have to run the A/C. This is getting ridiculous.

[Hammy]

This weather is utterly frustrating at this point, just warmup after warmup. Northern Georgia, and I recordded 85.7 in the sun on my front porch. Too hot to even put up the Christmas lights

What went so wrong with the forecasts and what's causing the heat ridging in the east? And is it even worth expecting winter at this point?

[Ntxw]

This weather is utterly frustrating at this point, just warmup after warmup. Northern Georgia, and I recordded 85.7 in the sun on my front porch. Too hot to even put up the Christmas lights

What went so wrong with the forecasts and what's causing the heat ridging in the east? And is it even worth expecting winter at this point?

Here is a composite of the 5 strongest El Nino winters I did in the Texas thread over the summer. Worth posting here for some thought

Here are some visuals to help show my previous post. It is remarkable the persistence climo for the major El Nino's. Weak and even moderate events can deviate but the strong (ONI > +1.5C) are very consistent.

All of them featured a normal to mild December, likely because El Nino's peak around NDJ and Canada is flooded with warmth.



By January the El Nino's slowly weaken and their influence becomes less that allows Canada to get cold, however we still keep the roaring lingering subtropical jet.



By February the Nino continues to weaken with the seasonal jet still strong, evidenced by the anomalies



Luckily the southern tier of the US is favored to be below normal. Canonical Nino events generally behave very similar. There are often low skill in forecasting winters that bears weak ENSO events or neutral. But in strong events (strong La Nina, strong El Nino) skill becomes higher as the ENSO event imposes the classic climo that they favor below. Good confidence the upper tier of the US will experience a very mild winter while the lower tier cooler than normal.

The record warmth vs just mild is likely a combo of the big Nino and a raging +AO

[hurricanehunter69]

The climate prediction center keeps backing off to the west.....? I've lost faith in our winter, and I'd even be worried if I was in Texas....? This is what the three month ( Jan, Feb, Mar ) looks like now. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[Hammy]

I see the models have not only significantly weakened the Christmas Eve storm system but also pushed the trough over a thousand miles west over the last few runs.

[MGC]

Had our second frost of the season this morning. Got down to about 35 at the house in Pass Christian. Still no freeze and don't look like one any time soon......MGC

[northjaxpro]

It was 36 degrees earlier today at my locale. Still no frost or freeze has occured here to this point this season, although there is a chance we may get frost here tomorrow morning if the wind can get light enough.

[Hammy]

I guess that 500mb high isn't going anywhere anytime soon--yesterday it appeared we might finally start getting troughs coming out of the Gulf but the models have shifted back west yet again.

[Ntxw]

I guess that 500mb high isn't going anywhere anytime soon--yesterday it appeared we might finally start getting troughs coming out of the Gulf but the models have shifted back west yet again.

It will take a little more time. -SOI crash will soon occur so that SE ridge will break down to a +PNA set up. Perhaps second week of January

[Hammy]

I guess that 500mb high isn't going anywhere anytime soon--yesterday it appeared we might finally start getting troughs coming out of the Gulf but the models have shifted back west yet again.

It will take a little more time. -SOI crash will soon occur so that SE ridge will break down to a +PNA set up. Perhaps second week of January

Models seem now to break the ridge down only temporarily and build it back after the first week of Jan.

[SeGaBob]

I'm tired of this unseasonable warmth... it got up to 83 here today.