Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

Every season we hear chatter about SSW. Almost SSW, some SSW, might be SSW, sort of SSW but all tend to be false or tickling the SPV. Full split, wind reversal, no doubt about this event. Wave 1, wave 2 doing a clean cut got all the boxes checked. -AO will control much of February.

[Ntxw]

Late next weekend into the early week after, might be widespread 70s before the pattern breaks down abruptly heading into Valentines weekend.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro and GFS

[Ntxw]

00z Euro and GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026013100/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026013100/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

12z GFS in the mid-long range looks like it's going to try another run. Definitely a lot of noise now for something.

[Cpv17]

I wonder what the Euro’s problem is lol same sh*t as 2021 so far with this upcoming pattern.

[Cpv17]

Put this run of the GFS into the hall of fame for SETX, good lord



February 14th 1895 redux on February 14th of 2026?

[Gotwood]

00z Euro and GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026013100/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026013100/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

12z GFS in the mid-long range looks like it's going to try another run. Definitely a lot of noise now for something.

I remember just last week the winter storm was looking at Texas this weekend. Now it’s on the east coast lol.

[bubba hotep]

Put this run of the GFS into the hall of fame for SETX, good lord

https://i.postimg.cc/DZ8ML56T/IMG-7704.jpg

February 14th 1895 redux on February 14th of 2026?

I would 100% take off work, pull the kids out of school, and rent a beach house for this event!

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro and GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026013100/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026013100/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

12z GFS in the mid-long range looks like it's going to try another run. Definitely a lot of noise now for something.

I remember just last week the winter storm was looking at Texas this weekend. Now it’s on the east coast lol.

Yeah, individual OP runs at this range don't have much accuracy. However, they can be pretty good at picking up patterns.

[Cpv17]

00z Euro and GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026013100/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026013100/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

12z GFS in the mid-long range looks like it's going to try another run. Definitely a lot of noise now for something.

I remember just last week the winter storm was looking at Texas this weekend. Now it’s on the east coast lol.

Difference for February looks to be the PNA will be around neutral. Huge for us if true.

[wxman22]

Its important not to get hung up on individual runs or storms this far out.Just note the overall pattern looks supportive of another winter storm around mid month.We'll see...

[wxman22]

I feel more confident about the upcoming pattern than i normally would in this range. But almost all the signals are showing up so it's hard to ignore.

[Cpv17]

I feel more confident about the upcoming pattern than i normally would in this range. But almost all the signals are showing up so it's hard to ignore.

Same here. I saw yesterday someone on X posted the PNA over the next few weeks and it looks to be near neutral beginning the second week of February which definitely helps the confidence level.

[Gotwood]

12z GFS in the mid-long range looks like it's going to try another run. Definitely a lot of noise now for something.

I remember just last week the winter storm was looking at Texas this weekend. Now it’s on the east coast lol.

Difference for February looks to be the PNA will be around neutral. Huge for us if true.

Yeah we will see. Should be interesting.

[TomballEd]

Put this run of the GFS into the hall of fame for SETX, good lord

https://i.postimg.cc/DZ8ML56T/IMG-7704.jpg

February 14th 1895 redux on February 14th of 2026?

I'd be the happiest boy in the world if that somehow verified.

[Quixotic]

Put this run of the GFS into the hall of fame for SETX, good lord

https://i.postimg.cc/DZ8ML56T/IMG-7704.jpg

February 14th 1895 redux on February 14th of 2026?

I would 100% take off work, pull the kids out of school, and rent a beach house for this event!

But you’d be stuck in Houston. If I was given a choice of Houston or Amarillo, I’d have to think about it.

[Stratton23]

west based - NAO continues to trend stronger on ensembles, EPO is meh, but that wont matter too much with a tanking AO, coupled with a major PV split, SPV will be significantly weakened, I expect a very cold week 2 ( all the way down to brownsville ) with the threat of potentially 1-2 winter storms ( valentines week ) and possibly below average temperature wise through the first week of march due to possible lingering effects from a SSWE) , we will see if im right, but i think thats how things will play out .

[Gotwood]

west based - NAO continues to trend stronger on ensembles, EPO is meh, but that wont matter with a tanking AO, coupled with a major PV split, SPV will be significantly weakened, I expect a very cold week 2 ( all the way down to brownsville ) with the threat of potentially 1-2 winter storms ( valentines week ) and staying below average temperature wise through the first week of march due to possible lingering effects from a SSWE) , we will see if im right, but i think thats how things will play out .

I’m taking the wait and see approach as it pertains to the PV split.

[Cpv17]

Put this run of the GFS into the hall of fame for SETX, good lord

https://i.postimg.cc/DZ8ML56T/IMG-7704.jpg

February 14th 1895 redux on February 14th of 2026?

I would 100% take off work, pull the kids out of school, and rent a beach house for this event!

But you’d be stuck in Houston. If I was given a choice of Houston or Amarillo, I’d have to think about it.

Regarding Houston, anything inside of Beltway 8 is run down ghetto trash for the most part, most places outside of that area is pretty nice.

[txtwister78]

west based - NAO continues to trend stronger on ensembles, EPO is meh, but that wont matter with a tanking AO, coupled with a major PV split, SPV will be significantly weakened, I expect a very cold week 2 ( all the way down to brownsville ) with the threat of potentially 1-2 winter storms ( valentines week ) and staying below average temperature wise through the first week of march due to possible lingering effects from a SSWE) , we will see if im right, but i think thats how things will play out .

Yeah Ntxw and I have pretty much laid the groundwork brother a few days ago how this pattern can deliver without a tanking EPO but with a dominant-AO. The GFS/GEFS is now aligned for the time period that we've been highlighting.

Now it's just a wait and see if that holds as we look for other models to get on board over the next few days.