Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

west based - NAO continues to trend stronger on ensembles, EPO is meh, but that wont matter with a tanking AO, coupled with a major PV split, SPV will be significantly weakened, I expect a very cold week 2 ( all the way down to brownsville ) with the threat of potentially 1-2 winter storms ( valentines week ) and staying below average temperature wise through the first week of march due to possible lingering effects from a SSWE) , we will see if im right, but i think thats how things will play out .

I’m taking the wait and see approach as it pertains to the PV split.

I feel like there’s actually a legit chance it happens this time around. Judah seems pretty sold on it and he’s the so called expert regarding that.

[Stratton23]

txtwsiter78 100% agreed, it is my understanding though that a stronger - AO may be better for snow chances compared to a more - EPO driven cold snap, if we get the sub tropical jet to become active, with a west based - NAO thrown in as well to say the least

[TomballEd]

I'm wondering abou temperatures. While Alaska has warm anomalies, usually good for cold anomalies here, the EPS have Texas near to above normal. The GFS ensembles don't look particularly cool when the 6Z and 12Z op runs have their winter storms. The 12Z ice storm on the op is at the same time that the 12Z ensemble is showing warm anomalies in Texas.

Obviously, the 6Z GFS is the desired outcome, but I'm low confidence until the scheduled events get closer in time and the ensembles start showing cool anomalies.

[Cpv17]

It looks like the PNA could even go negative towards the middle of February, but obviously a long ways out, so we’ll wait and see about that. Even if it’s just slightly negative, that wouldn’t be much of an issue for us.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

It looks like the PNA could even go negative towards the middle of February, but obviously a long ways out, so we’ll wait and see about that. Even if it’s just slightly negative, that wouldn’t be much of an issue for us.

Like I mentioned yesterday, if the models push or keep pushing the potential change back, its probably not going to happen here. We shall see. I personally would feel better if the euro products start to hint at it more often with a change back to colder stormier

[Stratton23]

I will say that the euro is typically the last model to pick up on cold air lol, it did absolutely awful back in 2021

[Cpv17]

It looks like the PNA could even go negative towards the middle of February, but obviously a long ways out, so we’ll wait and see about that. Even if it’s just slightly negative, that wouldn’t be much of an issue for us.

Like I mentioned yesterday, if the models push or keep pushing the potential change back, its probably not going to happen here. We shall see.

Right now I don’t see anything getting pushed back on the models yet, so I’m not sure where you’re getting that from. The only thing I would like to see is the ensembles trend a bit stronger with the cold anomalies and for more models to join the GFS. I don’t have a ton of faith in the Euro though with big -AO events after the way it handled Feb 2021.

[txtwister78]

txtwsiter78 100% agreed, it is my understanding though that a stronger - AO may be better for snow chances compared to a more - EPO driven cold snap, if we get the sub tropical jet to become active, with a west based - NAO thrown in as well to say the least

Yeah Ntxw posted I believe yesterday some big ticket analogs that were a result of a strong -AO pattern driver behind them and as I mentioned the other day as we get later into the winter that's the teleconnection that becomes even more important if you want winter weather to return across the southern plains despite the EPO hovering around neutral to slightly negative territory.

In addition the PNA heading into neutral to negative by mid month also helps but like the warm spell we had prior to our arctic blast, this is a process that models will be slow to see but the GFS was one of the first to see the cold during the lead up to our winter storm so let's see how it plays out.

[Cpv17]

Does the CPC not pay attention to the PNA forecasts? They have most of the cold in the east again for February lol

[Ntxw]

No way we repeat the big storm we just had right a week or so from now with yet another big STJ event?

[Harp.1]

So far this run looks nothing like the previous few. It started off that way, but then got weird

[Stratton23]

Yes, but thats to be expected lol, anything past 5 days and the operational models will be all over the place

[cajungal]

So far this run looks nothing like the previous few. It started off that way, but then got weird

It will swing wildly since it is 2 weeks out

[Harp.1]

I mean WEIRD!!! Completely different. Happy hour GFS drunk again?? lol!!

[Stratton23]

When you have a pattern thats going to be largely governed by the -AO, global models are especially going to struggle with this, and now with a trend toward a strong west based - NAO, thats going to add to the headache , february 2021 was largely a AO driven cold spell, and we all saw how models like the Euro did with that

[orangeblood]

Even though AO is tanking, be weary of the WPO...gets too positive, it'll crank up the pacific jet too much, flooding NA with warmer pacific air. It's often overlooked

[Cpv17]

I mean WEIRD!!! Completely different. Happy hour GFS drunk again?? lol!!

The main thing to pay attention to right now is if the ensembles trend colder and the blocking up N remains locked in.

[Stratton23]

Things are looking decent , Euro weeklies crash the WPO 2nd week of february and beyond, seems pretty believable to me, you arent getting pacific air flooding the US with a split PV and a lobe sitting in NA,

[Gotwood]

Even though AO is tanking, be weary of the WPO...gets too positive, it'll crank up the pacific jet too much, flooding NA with warmer pacific air. It's often overlooked

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/wpo/box/1769860800-rHLkbBnsumcgrb2.png

Say no more. The Eastern half of the US will get rocked again lol.

[Stratton23]

Id be more concerned about pacific air flooding the US, if it wasnt for this - AO, west based - NAO and whats going on in the stratosphere , while its possible some pacific air gets thrown into the country early february, I think id lean more towards a colder pattern winning here , WPO is important, but definitely not the most important teleconnection