Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5721 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:52 pm

Models want to zero in on College Station as ground zero for snow accumulation on Monday. Some of the bands on the GFS and HRRR look very strong.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5722 Postby cstrunk » Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:52 pm

Looks like moisture is increasing on radar in south Texas. It's about to be nowcasting time. :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5723 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:53 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Haris wrote:Hey IceResistance, I love your passion but you do not have to put the large red text about ratios on every single post. We know :wink: just a friendly recommendation

Okay then, I was planning to slow that way down as the storm gets closer anyway . . .


As a supporter of S2K do your thing man. Not sure why it would matter how you choose to do so.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5724 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:54 pm

Updated WPC probabilities for greater than 4" and 6". The national forecast that FW often references.

>4"
Image

>6"
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5725 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:55 pm

So is the HRRR juiced up for DFW?

Next manor model run or are we in now casting?

What time do I need to wake up tonight?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5726 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:57 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:So is the HRRR juiced up for DFW?

Next manor model run or are we in now casting?

What time do I need to wake up tonight?


Go 48 hours or you may miss some flakes. Or sleep now wake up at 3am.

HRRR has first precip breakout from the south around 9pm this evening. FW sounding at 0z will be telling.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5727 Postby katheria » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:03 pm

BigD938 wrote:So when do we start posting guesses on totals?
Like dfw? 12” on the ground after the second storm?
Just kinda putting average of what everyone is saying


Im going to go with higher totals...first storm
Sun-mon ft worth area 7-8" dallas area east 12+ "
Call me nutty but i have seen it before....
Not even going to guess on 2nd storm
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5728 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:05 pm

So like the last time I was in an ice storm was in Pennsylvania which obviously is way more prepared than south Texas is and has plants adapted for the cold. Do I have to expect trees to be crashing on the house, avoid windows, and sleep in first floor hallway the next couple of nights?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5729 Postby ZeroGee » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:06 pm

Don’t listen to him. Your roll is good.

Iceresistance wrote:
Haris wrote:Hey IceResistance, I love your passion but you do not have to put the large red text about ratios on every single post. We know :wink: just a friendly recommendation

Okay then, I was planning to slow that way down as the storm gets closer anyway . . .
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5730 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:06 pm

What if the storm comes out STRONGER than forecasted? That was the trend in 2020 . . .

That was the case in the 2009 Christmas Blizzard, March 2015 Snowstorm & the 2020 October Ice Storm.


Could this be next? :eek:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5731 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:07 pm

ZeroGee wrote:Don’t listen to him. Your roll is good.

Iceresistance wrote:
Haris wrote:Hey IceResistance, I love your passion but you do not have to put the large red text about ratios on every single post. We know :wink: just a friendly recommendation

Okay then, I was planning to slow that way down as the storm gets closer anyway . . .

It's fine, I was planning to slow it down anyway, they are very aware about the 15:1 & higher snowfall Ratios . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5732 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:08 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:So someone explain something to me, if it's possible. The NWS message just posted mentioned sporadic, but temporary power outages due to icing, my paid weather service basically mirrored that message, but on here, it seems people are really concerned about it, enough to buy generators. I'm on the fence about a generator, and I know I can buy and return if I don't use it, but I'm trying to convince myself I need one here in NW Houston.


One thing you have to keep in mind about the generators is they use gasoline. If power is out at your house and surrounding gas stations you may not be able to get gas for that generator. Particularly if the roads are so bad you can't even drive there. That is why I didn't buy one.


You just buy a few cans. I have enough gas for 5 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5733 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
ZeroGee wrote:Don’t listen to him. Your roll is good.

Iceresistance wrote:Okay then, I was planning to slow that way down as the storm gets closer anyway . . .

It's fine, I was planning to slow it down anyway, they are very aware about the 15:1 & higher snowfall Ratios . . .


It's fine if you wish to continue it. Perhaps, as a suggestion, keep it normal size? Up to you though. I like to put disclaimers and notations smaller and let them interpret it as they may.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5734 Postby Haris » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:11 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Haris wrote:Hey IceResistance, I love your passion but you do not have to put the large red text about ratios on every single post. We know :wink: just a friendly recommendation

Okay then, I was planning to slow that way down as the storm gets closer anyway . . .



No worries
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5735 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:14 pm

NWS-Norman Radar already picking up snow in SW Oklahoma & heading my way!

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5736 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:16 pm

Not to rehash this again but UGH...it was really annoying. Curse the sun.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5737 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:19 pm

For us long timers on here. Who was that one member who made that call for snow, was dead on, then left the board?

It was a pretty epic forecast that came true.

I think it was the the Falls area or something.

Just bringing back memories.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5738 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:22 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:For us long timers on here. Who was that one member who made that call for snow, was dead on, then left the board?

It was a pretty epic forecast that came true.

Just bringing back memories.


Msstateguy(some number). He was a poster from WF during 09-10 snowstorms and was aggressive for all of the systems. It worked out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5739 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:22 pm

Iceresistance wrote:NWS-Norman Radar already picking up snow in SW Oklahoma & heading my way!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/KTLX_loop.gif


I don't know about everyone else, but not a fan of this new radar setup from NWS. Needs a bit of tweaking.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5740 Postby gboudx » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:24 pm

EnnisTx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:NWS-Norman Radar already picking up snow in SW Oklahoma & heading my way!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/KTLX_loop.gif


I don't know about everyone else, but not a fan of this new radar setup from NWS. Needs a bit of tweaking.


I hate them. I used to rely on NWS radar. I’ve switched to the Fox 4 WAPP as a result
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