Texas Winter 2020-2021

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This is a sounding for Sugar Land mid storm from yesterday's 18z. Most of them all week have looked like this. This screams sleet



This is a sounding from the most recent 18z at about the same time in the storm. Much less pronounced warm nose. Very good news for Houston. Good news as in, more snow than freezing rain.

[cheezyWXguy]

NWS-Norman Radar already picking up snow in SW Oklahoma & heading my way!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/KTLX_loop.gif

I don't know about everyone else, but not a fan of this new radar setup from NWS. Needs a bit of tweaking.

I hate them. I used to rely on NWS radar. I’ve switched to the Fox 4 WAPP as a result

If $10/year isn’t too steep, highly recommend RadarScope

[Quixotic]

Looking at the clouds streaming in and they are what the folks back in Worcester would call a “snow sky”.

[Quixotic]

Not to rehash this again but UGH...it was really annoying. Curse the sun.

https://i.imgur.com/7CtxYPU.png

I hit 33 too.

[Iceresistance]

I don't know about everyone else, but not a fan of this new radar setup from NWS. Needs a bit of tweaking.

I hate them. I used to rely on NWS radar. I’ve switched to the Fox 4 WAPP as a result

If $10/year isn’t too steep, highly recommend RadarScope

I'm saving ALL of my money up for more important things . . .

Forgot to say it's also picking up on the National Radar . . . (Between Lubbock & Wichita Falls in Texas)

[Ntxw]

First areas of precip from our system is starting to show up in South Texas and the Central Plains.

[ztshanklin]

Anybody got a best guess eta for first noticeable snowfall in Fort Worth? This a wake up early tomorrow deal or would my normal 6:30 be ok?

[gpsnowman]

Anybody got a best guess eta for first noticeable snowfall in Fort Worth? This a wake up early tomorrow deal or would my normal 6:30 be ok?

Was thinking the same thing. I'm ready for bed now actually so early won't be a big deal. Still thinking of the Sunday morning snow.

[BigD938]

So when do we start posting guesses on totals?
Like dfw? 12” on the ground after the second storm?
Just kinda putting average of what everyone is saying

Im going to go with higher totals...first storm
Sun-mon ft worth area 7-8" dallas area east 12+ "
Call me nutty but i have seen it before....
Not even going to guess on 2nd storm

Damn!! Going all in! It would be crazy if it happens, I’m in Kaufman county. I really think we might have a foot

[Ntxw]

Anybody got a best guess eta for first noticeable snowfall in Fort Worth? This a wake up early tomorrow deal or would my normal 6:30 be ok?

Was thinking the same thing. I'm ready for bed now actually so early won't be a big deal. Still thinking of the Sunday morning snow.

Depending on what guidance some models have batches of precip coming through between 9pm to 3am. At worst if you miss, you wake up with a surprise white ground. But the main show is going to be tomorrow afternoon.

[SoupBone]

So someone explain something to me, if it's possible. The NWS message just posted mentioned sporadic, but temporary power outages due to icing, my paid weather service basically mirrored that message, but on here, it seems people are really concerned about it, enough to buy generators. I'm on the fence about a generator, and I know I can buy and return if I don't use it, but I'm trying to convince myself I need one here in NW Houston.

You may have less freezing rain there and more sleet/snow. It's the freezing rain that brings down tree limbs and power lines. I think I'll be buying gas for my generator tomorrow (SW Houston), as we're closer to the freezing rain area.

I went ahead and did the safe thing, I have 30 gallons of gas and a new generator, just in case. I'll return it if I don't need it, and use the gas for the cars. Win/Win and I feel much better now.

[megsy]

This is a sounding from the most recent 18z at about the same time in the storm. Much less pronounced warm nose. Very good news for Houston. Good news as in, more snow than freezing rain.

This makes me happy! Question about soundings if you don’t mind; where are sounding taken? I’m a little north of Sugar Land so I’m curious if that’s the closest one to me.

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner:

Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all SE TX counties for ice and snow accumulations Sunday night into Monday

A period of historic cold will arrive in 24 hours and rival some of our worst arctic air outbreaks of the past 150 years

Winter precipitation and bitter cold will create hazards and challenges well into next week with crippling impacts to travel and significant damage to unprotected infrastructure

Discussion:
No real changes to the forecast today with the freezing line moving back and forth each day/night roughly between College Station and Hempstead. Have had a bit of off and on drizzle up near College Station today, but most of the area has been dry. Radars out west and southwest are starting to show increasing returns as a weak disturbance will move across the region tonight into early Sunday. Surface freezing line may extend along a line from Conroe to Cypress to Katy to Victoria by Sunday morning with a chance of freezing rain and freezing drizzle north of that line. A few patches of ice will be possible on bridges and overpasses mainly north and west of Harris County, but cannot completely rule out an isolate patch in far west and northwest Harris.

High impact and crippling winter storm rapidly approaches Sunday afternoon and expect widespread winter precipitation to develop during the late afternoon hours and overspread the entire region Sunday night. Initial precipitation looks to be freezing rain with ice accumulations with transition over to sleet and snow mainly north of I-10. High resolution models showing some impressive banding features early Monday morning which could produce some of the heavier precipitation rates. Nothing today has suggested any significant changes to the forecast accumulations of ice and snow over the area, but will keep an eye on the meso models closely for any adjustments that may be needed.

Accumulations:

Ice:
1/10 to 1/4 over much of the area…especially south of HWY 105..could see a few isolated higher totals near 1/3 of an inch

Snow:
2-4 inches (north of a line from Livingston to Willis to Navasota)
1-3 inches (north of a line from Cleveland to Conroe to Columbus)
1-2 inches (north of US 59)
Less than an inch (south of US 59)

Impacts:

Travel:
Ice and snow falling with temperatures falling into the low 20’s and upper 10’s Monday morning will result in near impossible travel on all surfaces…this includes surface streets, sidewalks, and parking lots. Anyone attempting to travel has a high potential of becoming stranded…and the simple message is where you area Sunday evening is where you are going to be Tuesday.

Power:
Ice accumulations are right on the border between isolated and sporadic power outages and more significant widespread outages. Even with the marginal ice accumulations for widespread power disruption, winds of 15-25mph may be the key factor that pushes tree limbs and power lines past their breaking point. Residents should be prepared for power outages.

Historic Cold:
A most memorable cold air outbreak will accompany the winter precipitation. Temperatures will fall below freezing Sunday evening for many areas and remain below freezing into Tuesday and Wednesday…it is possible that areas from College Station to Huntsville do not get above freezing until Friday. The long duration of the sub-freezing temperatures along with the brutal intensity of the cold air mass is going to create extensive damage across the region to vegetation and infrastructure.

Expect most areas to fall into the 10’s and low 20’s on Monday (coast in the upper 20’s) and then continue to fall Monday night and bottom out with lows in the upper 1’s and low 10’s north of I-10 and upper 10’s and low 20’s near the beaches. College Station to Huntsville looking like lower to middle 1’s. Wind chills Monday night will fall into the -10’s and -1’s across much of the area.

This is life threatening cold and persons should limit outside exposure to short periods of time to avoid frostbite and hypothermia.

Lastly, given the intensity and duration of the cold, portions of lakes and ponds, stock ponds, and other small water bodies, ect may freeze over with a layer of ice…DO NOT attempt to walk on any frozen water body as the ice will not be thick enough to support a person.

I cannot stress enough that maximum cold weather preparation MUST be taken to help attempt to mitigate significant property damage.

Preparations:

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.

Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

[Ntxw]

18z Euro says the stuff coming tonight is snow for DFW which makes more sense with the profile. For the event ~4-6" with the dynamic ratio area wide, locally higher.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 at 6:50 PM

Storm #1: 10-14 inches (Locally 18)

Storm #2: 6-10 inches (Likely higher)

[Texas Snow]

Steve McCauley’s map is forthcoming but it is going for DFW with TWO to six inches.

Still calling for bigger storm tue/wed with DFW mostly snow but dangerously close to a “crippling ice storm”

[gboudx]

I don't know about everyone else, but not a fan of this new radar setup from NWS. Needs a bit of tweaking.

I hate them. I used to rely on NWS radar. I’ve switched to the Fox 4 WAPP as a result

If $10/year isn’t too steep, highly recommend RadarScope

Thanks, I downloaded it from the App Store.

[Wntrwthrguy]

18z Euro says the stuff coming tonight is snow for DFW which makes more sense with the profile. For the event ~4-6" with the dynamic ratio area wide, locally higher.

What does it show for the Austin area?

[Brent]

I hate them. I used to rely on NWS radar. I’ve switched to the Fox 4 WAPP as a result

If $10/year isn’t too steep, highly recommend RadarScope

Thanks, I downloaded it from the App Store.

Yeah Radarscope is good it'll be real handy during severe wx

Otherwise I am starting to get hyped about this storm I've been kind of trying to figure out how it'll fail but I'm not really feeling like it will this is the one guys

[ztshanklin]

Anybody got a best guess eta for first noticeable snowfall in Fort Worth? This a wake up early tomorrow deal or would my normal 6:30 be ok?

Was thinking the same thing. I'm ready for bed now actually so early won't be a big deal. Still thinking of the Sunday morning snow.

I just got done grilling a couple Wagyu ribeyes that were supposed to be for valentines. My wife and I agreed grilling at 29F a day early was better than 12 and blowing snow tomorrow night.