Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has highlighted Next Wednesday for a risk of Very Heavy Snow

[wxman22]

Updated CPC temp maps

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD

Surface temperatures will be quite cold for late
February behind this front next week, and southwest upper level
flow will set the stage for a potential wintry mess during the
Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Details will be refined with time,
but all wintry precipitation types appear possible during this
time period. An impactful winter storm remains within the realm
of possibility.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Mean Temperature is colder than the 12z CMCE (How often can I say that? )

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS looks like a long duration event for N. Texas and OK. And like last event, portions of N. TX and SE OK get a decent amount of qpf with surface temps below freezing.

[Ntxw]

DFW is getting its 26th freeze tonight. In a twist that's more than all of last season (24) after only receiving 1 freeze in December with a late start.

[Haris]

Well the GFS puts everyone from Austin N < 32 for around 3-4 days straight.

[Ntxw]

Well the GFS puts everyone from Austin N < 32 for around 3-4 days straight.

Run isn't done yet. Curious what happens with the rex/omega block Alaska/Canada. That feature would continue to reinforce. If it folds and comes down, it'll bring the TPV.

[gpsnowman]

Well the GFS puts everyone from Austin N < 32 for around 3-4 days straight.

This is shaping up to be much bigger than a couple weeks ago. Goodness gracious.

[bubba hotep]

Longer range but a polar blast coming down with a SW cutoff on deck

[ElectricStorm]

Not looking forward to this. I love a good snowstorm but one a year is good enough for me. After that it just becomes annoying.

[Iceresistance]

Not looking forward to this. I love a good snowstorm but one a year is good enough for me. After that it just becomes annoying.

We've had a long streak of Mild Winters, we're overdue for a streak of Cold & Snowy Winters.

[Ntxw]

Not looking forward to this. I love a good snowstorm but one a year is good enough for me. After that it just becomes annoying.

We've had a long streak of Mild Winters, we're overdue for a streak of Cold & Snowy Winters.

December was so historically warm it's going to average out much above normal. But of course that won't tell the whole story unless you dig in that Jan and Feb were colder. But 30 years from now all we'll see it was ++6 or something above.

[bubba hotep]

Not looking forward to this. I love a good snowstorm but one a year is good enough for me. After that it just becomes annoying.

We've had a long streak of Mild Winters, we're overdue for a streak of Cold & Snowy Winters.

December was so historically warm it's going to average out much above normal. But of course that won't tell the whole story unless you dig in that Jan and Feb were colder. But 30 years from now all we'll see it was ++6 or something above.

Here is YTD, this includes the last few warm days. We will see a couple of warm days before the next cool down. Then we should stay below normal through the end of the month.

[DallasAg]

DFW is getting its 26th freeze tonight. In a twist that's more than all of last season (24) after only receiving 1 freeze in December with a late start.

And if DFW drops 5 degrees by midnight we'll get credit for freezes on the 17th and 18th. And definitely a line of sight to get to the seasonal average of 29. Never would've seen that coming when we exited December.

[bubba hotep]

DFW is getting its 26th freeze tonight. In a twist that's more than all of last season (24) after only receiving 1 freeze in December with a late start.

And if DFW drops 5 degrees by midnight we'll get credit for freezes on the 17th and 18th. And definitely a line of sight to get to the seasonal average of 29. Never would've seen that coming when we exited December.

Seems almost a lock, freeze line is already through Decatur

[wxman57]

Does next week’s setup look about the same in terms of temperature/precip/duration as the storm we had in the beginning of February?

Winter weather looks much farther north. Generally, across the Red River in Oklahoma and Kansas. Can't rule out a snowflake or sleet pellet down to the D-FW area. Not nearly as severe as early February.

[Iceresistance]

March 2015 Redux?


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/2015-Redux.png

[Cpv17]

Does next week’s setup look about the same in terms of temperature/precip/duration as the storm we had in the beginning of February?

Winter weather looks much farther north. Generally, across the Red River in Oklahoma and Kansas. Can't rule out a snowflake or sleet pellet down to the D-FW area. Not nearly as severe as early February.

Okay

[gpsnowman]

Does next week’s setup look about the same in terms of temperature/precip/duration as the storm we had in the beginning of February?

Winter weather looks much farther north. Generally, across the Red River in Oklahoma and Kansas. Can't rule out a snowflake or sleet pellet down to the D-FW area. Not nearly as severe as early February.

I want to know what he is drinking. 57 might need some Texas whiskey to warm up the bones starting next week.