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Winter Weather Discussion

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snow_wizzard
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#5741 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu May 26, 2005 1:37 pm

Running the numbers and comparing to May 1983...I think the foothill areas could see 95 tomorrow. :eek:
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#5742 Postby weather girl » Thu May 26, 2005 1:46 pm

This is just absolutely amazing to watch as it tracks up the coast.

Check this out: Yesterday at this time, Newport (central coast) was at 78 w/12 mph east winds. Today, they're at 70 w/5mph wnw winds and have dropped a degree over the last hour or so. Seaside (about 100 miles north) is at 82, ENE winds at 9. Yesterday, Seaside was 76 at this time. I'd say that places the heat trough just about past Newport. I'm about 65 miles inland from Newport. I can see a few high clouds straying their way inland right now even though we're at 82 degrees and it's not even noon. WOW!!! We'll easily hit 90+...depending on how fast this thing moves in.

I admit that I'm not a fan of the heat low, but they are tons of fun to watch move in.
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TT-SEA

#5743 Postby TT-SEA » Thu May 26, 2005 1:48 pm

It is 82 degrees here in North Bend (almost noon).

Warm but not extreme yet.
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andrewr
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#5744 Postby andrewr » Thu May 26, 2005 2:08 pm

I've got 89F and it's just past noon.
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TT-SEA

#5745 Postby TT-SEA » Thu May 26, 2005 2:24 pm

83 degrees here at 12:30 p.m.

Tomorrow will be the hottest day in North Bend.

Today will be the hottest day in Seattle.
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snow_wizzard
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#5746 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu May 26, 2005 2:57 pm

I think tomorrow will indeed be the warmest day for the foothills. The 850mb temps are a few C higher and the winds remain easterly. Today the east wind will somewhat limit the highs in this area because of the realatively cool air still in place over central WA. Tomorrow, that will not be the case. Readings well into the 90s are a strong possiblility tomrorow.

The national guys have basically thrown in the towel for predicting anything beyond day 6. This ranks among the least confidence I have ever seen them have!
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TT-SEA

#5747 Postby TT-SEA » Thu May 26, 2005 3:08 pm

And I know why!!

I feel like every model run is just a new suggestion. Nobody knows what is going to happen.

Its really bad right now.

The global pattern is re-shuffling and the models have yet to lock in on anything concrete.
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AnthonyC
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#5748 Postby AnthonyC » Thu May 26, 2005 4:27 pm

Currently 87F out on my deck. I almost forgot how warm it can get...definitely uncomfortable today. Tomorrow looks a little warmer than today...the one exception will be the immediate coast. The thermal trough is alot stronger than models indicated...which is usually the case. When you have temperatures 110F+ for several days in the desert southwest, you know something will give in the PNW.

Tomorrow will probably hit the 90-degree mark in Seattle...the foothills will reach the mid 90s. Then the pattern slowly changes as a cooler, marine airmass takes shape...but the onshore push doesn't look strong so temperatures could easily reach the 80-degree mark once again on Saturday.

Anthony
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andrewr
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#5749 Postby andrewr » Thu May 26, 2005 4:31 pm

I've got 91 right now. Covington ES is reporting 94 and another Covington site is reporting 95. Either way it is down right hot out there.
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TT-SEA

#5750 Postby TT-SEA » Thu May 26, 2005 4:38 pm

Snow_Wizzard has been claiming for months that the Covington site is reading 6-8 degrees too high.

Now when you guys want extreme heat... its suddenly reliable!!

All the official sites are in the mid to upper 80s so I think we have some thermometers getting too much sun.
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TT-SEA

#5751 Postby TT-SEA » Thu May 26, 2005 4:40 pm

I have 86 degrees here.
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#5752 Postby weather girl » Thu May 26, 2005 4:47 pm

Now, this I love: Newport - 67/Seaside 90.

Here in Salem; 89. We've got some high-altitude, wispy clouds overhead. I expect we'll get another degree or two before all is said and done.

PS: We've got a halo around the sun, too. Not an overly impressive one, but a halo nonetheless.
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W13
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#5753 Postby W13 » Thu May 26, 2005 5:17 pm

Currently 91 F, which has also been our high so far. The scary thing is, I have a baseball game in just a few hours! :eek:
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snow_wizzard
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#5754 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu May 26, 2005 5:29 pm

I think the school net stations are too high. I have two thermometers that both say 87 for Covington. That is still pretty stinkin hot! This would certainly have to be classified as a freakish hot spell. Our high just two days ago was only 65! :eek:

This year is proving to be quite a ride all of the sudden....

I will have to dig through the records yet again to see if there is anything that equals how fast it has shot up with this. This is keeping me really busy this year!
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TT-SEA

#5755 Postby TT-SEA » Thu May 26, 2005 5:36 pm

Watch that tornado video on the other thread. Amazing stuff.

You have to watch it all the way through.


Snow_Wizzard... I can tell you that 2001 is close. Maybe more extreme because we are NOT going to drop down as fast or as dramatic. Maybe upper 60's next week instead of mid-50's!!
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#5756 Postby W13 » Thu May 26, 2005 5:58 pm

snow_wizzard,

I don't think the Milenium ES Station is too high because it always seems to agree with the thermometer in my backyard. In the shade right now, it is around 89 F. This seems to verify with the 91 F reported on WeatherBug.
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snow_wizzard
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#5757 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu May 26, 2005 5:59 pm

I think the GFS is on drugs this week! Now it shows a nice cold front coming through next week! I am going to believe the ECMWF which shows cool air working down from the northern Gulf of Alaska next week. I suppose it will go bonkers next!
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#5758 Postby weather girl » Thu May 26, 2005 6:00 pm

92 here at 4:00. We're starting to get a bit of a westerly flow now, but not enough to push out the trough. Predictions are for 90 tomorrow. We do have a semi-cloudy sky, though. Does that mean the heat low is over us now? Hmmmm........

I have no idea what next week will be like. It's a battle of the models. The CPC has a confidence level of 1. One forecast has us with 83 and rain on Saturday. My oh my.

Have a nice evening!
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#5759 Postby W13 » Thu May 26, 2005 6:01 pm

Whoa, look at the temperatures NWS has for the 7-Day! Before they updated this afternnon they had temps on Sunday-Tuesday only making it to maybe the mid-70s. Now they have 85 F or higher through Monday. And who knows, those temps for next week may go even higher, due to the uncertainty of the models.
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TT-SEA

#5760 Postby TT-SEA » Thu May 26, 2005 6:15 pm

Tomorrow is the warmest day and then the cool down begins.

It will be in the 70's by Monday and only in the upper 60's next week.

The one thing that almost all models agree on is that we will have weak zonal flow next week.

That will bring a period of normal weather.
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