Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Weatherdude20]

Lol, actaully, I don't know anything this time... Haha, I just figured since they took everything down they were getting ready to issue a some type of Winter update.... Like a watch, advisory, or warning...

[HockeyTx82]

Very strange, I wonder what they are up to over there at the FTW NWS...........

The last forecast update was from 6:22AM today.

Is this the calm before the storm?

[srainhoutx]

Don't give up just yet...

[gboudx]

Lol, actaully, I don't know anything this time... Haha, I just figured since they took everything down they were getting ready to issue a some type of Winter update.... Like a watch, advisory, or warning...

Well use your "lots of local sources" and get us the scoop. If there is any.

I'm just messing with you weatherdude20. We'll know soon enough. I hope people don't start pestering you.

[Kludge]

So far ECMWF similar to the last run at 36 hours...
ECMWF very similar to the last run...snow WACO/DFW Thu....snow line close to CLL/AUS but like it a little further north...
None for Houston...bummer, but hey at least Waco/TPL/DFW/GGG/TYR get it.

I assume CLL is College Station? If so, I want to believe the above statement so hard. still having a hard time believing we're going to be cold enough here for froven precip but thats just my pessimism keeping me grounded.

Houston NWS is still predicting a low of 32 and 60% chance ofrain for CLL for Wednesday night. I'm not sure why they would do that without issuing at least a watch.

[Portastorm]

From the "Things That Make Me Go 'Hmmmmm' " Dept:

(excerpt from an AFD issued by Amarillo NWSFO at 1:17 pm today)

LATEST MODEL RUNS DEFINITELY SHOWING A
SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW BY THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL BACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND TREND TOWARD LESS SNOWFALL. LATER SHIFTS
CAN REMOVE POPS AND QPF ALTOGETHER FROM THE THURSDAY PERIOD...HOWEVER
STILL RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FROM THE GRIDS. SINCE THE
MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION YESTERDAY AND SINCE THE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK AND SINCE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD...FEEL
THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AT ALL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
MODELS COMING BACK TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THEREBY A WETTER SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN IN LATER RUNS.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think this will be big SLEET not Snow maker lol

[Kludge]

From the "Things That Make Me Go 'Hmmmmm' " Dept:

(excerpt from an AFD issued by Amarillo NWSFO at 1:17 pm today)

LATEST MODEL RUNS DEFINITELY SHOWING A
SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW BY THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL BACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND TREND TOWARD LESS SNOWFALL. LATER SHIFTS
CAN REMOVE POPS AND QPF ALTOGETHER FROM THE THURSDAY PERIOD...HOWEVER
STILL RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FROM THE GRIDS. SINCE THE
MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION YESTERDAY AND SINCE THE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK AND SINCE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD...FEEL
THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AT ALL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
MODELS COMING BACK TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THEREBY A WETTER SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN IN LATER RUNS.

I think that was a very polically correct manner of calling "BS" on the models. I really appreciate it when a met has a 'gut feel', and doesn't just robotically forecast what the models say.

I'm actually encouraged by the latest runs. I really can't remember a time when the "key" models locked onto a winter precip event for central Texas from a week out and hung on all the way to the event. I would bet there will be happiness on this board in 30 hours or so when the real players come onto the field.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=26589

GReat read here. Mainly for AL people, but has some good info in there

[TrekkerCC]

I think that was a very polically correct manner of calling "BS" on the models. I really appreciate it when a met has a 'gut feel', and doesn't just robotically forecast what the models say.

I'm actually encouraged by the latest runs. I really can't remember a time when the "key" models locked onto a winter precip event for central Texas from a week out and hung on all the way to the event. I would bet there will be happiness on this board in 30 hours or so when the real players come onto the field.

I agree. Right now, I think there is a good chance a major winter weather event could happen. If the actual upper-level low digs like the NAM/GFS is suggesting, then obviously, we aren't going to see a huge event in DFW area. However, the ECMWF/CMC seem to be similar in their model projection, and I think HPC has given good reasons that why they think the ECMWF/CMC solution is a much more credible solution than the current NAM/GFS.

[Weatherdude20]

Lol, someone referenced Msn the other day so I thought I try it out... Ha, pretty sweet forecast for Fort Worth...

Tomorrow Hi:44° Lo:31° Rain / Snow
Feb 10 Thursday Hi:36° Lo:30° Snow

I like the low of 30. lol

http://local.msn.com/weather.aspx

[rainman31]

I thought our area was under a winter weather advisory.

[Texas Snowman]

From the "Things That Make Me Go 'Hmmmmm' " Dept:

(excerpt from an AFD issued by Amarillo NWSFO at 1:17 pm today)

LATEST MODEL RUNS DEFINITELY SHOWING A
SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW BY THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL BACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND TREND TOWARD LESS SNOWFALL. LATER SHIFTS
CAN REMOVE POPS AND QPF ALTOGETHER FROM THE THURSDAY PERIOD...HOWEVER
STILL RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FROM THE GRIDS. SINCE THE
MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION YESTERDAY AND SINCE THE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK AND SINCE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD...FEEL
THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AT ALL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
MODELS COMING BACK TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THEREBY A WETTER SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN IN LATER RUNS.

That's a definite "Hmmmmm....". Wonder if the other NWS offices will address such gut feelings in their AFDs or will they stick to the model output today?


Where's that popcorn munching smiley?

[Texas Snowman]

I thought our area was under a winter weather advisory.

Negatory rainman31.

At least not yet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

From the "Things That Make Me Go 'Hmmmmm' " Dept:

(excerpt from an AFD issued by Amarillo NWSFO at 1:17 pm today)

LATEST MODEL RUNS DEFINITELY SHOWING A
SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW BY THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL BACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND TREND TOWARD LESS SNOWFALL. LATER SHIFTS
CAN REMOVE POPS AND QPF ALTOGETHER FROM THE THURSDAY PERIOD...HOWEVER
STILL RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FROM THE GRIDS. SINCE THE
MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION YESTERDAY AND SINCE THE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK AND SINCE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD...FEEL
THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AT ALL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
MODELS COMING BACK TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THEREBY A WETTER SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN IN LATER RUNS.

That's a definite "Hmmmmm....". Wonder if the other NWS offices will address such gut feelings in their AFDs or will they stick to the model output today?


Where's that popcorn munching smiley?

Im curious as to what the upper air sample would actually show. .... The link i posted above kind of supports this theory. In the link, it explained why most Low pressures stay close to the coast due Lows tracking where the pressure gradient is highest. Right now, the GFS is showing the low tracking further south than normal (further off the coast). I think it will be much closer to the coast because although this is a cold air mass, it's not a brutally cold airmass.

Now i'm no professional met, with that said, by looking at the canadian, it shows most of the action to occur on Thurs night? (For Dallas) I tink this storm has the potential to be bigger deal then what many of us are thinking as of now. Lets just hope im right

I think by late tonight, early tomorrow morning we can have a much better idea of what will happen. (obvious)

[gboudx]

DFW basically says, no big deal.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS TODAY TRENDED A BIT WARMER THAN 00Z RUNS...BUT ARE STILL COLD
ENOUGH FOR WINTER WEATHER. MAXIMUM SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RUN IN
A SWATH FROM COMANCHE TO ARLINGTON TO EMORY...WITH ONE TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE METROPLEX. THIS IS NOT SNOW ON THE
GROUND...BUT SNOW FALLING. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES FROM MID MORNING
THURSDAY TO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL MELT. THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN MIX IN...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES.

AFTER THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND A QUICK
COLD SHOT/UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO COME ACROSS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
LEFT THE PREVIOUS LOW POPS TO COVER THIS SYSTEM.

[orangeblood]

DFW basically says, no big deal.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS TODAY TRENDED A BIT WARMER THAN 00Z RUNS...BUT ARE STILL COLD
ENOUGH FOR WINTER WEATHER. MAXIMUM SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RUN IN
A SWATH FROM COMANCHE TO ARLINGTON TO EMORY...WITH ONE TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE METROPLEX. THIS IS NOT SNOW ON THE
GROUND...BUT SNOW FALLING. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES FROM MID MORNING
THURSDAY TO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL MELT. THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN MIX IN...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES.

AFTER THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND A QUICK
COLD SHOT/UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO COME ACROSS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
LEFT THE PREVIOUS LOW POPS TO COVER THIS SYSTEM.

What kind of discussion is that out of Fort Worth? Very dissapointing by how vague that write up is.

[CaptinCrunch]

It will change again by tomorrows runs as it always does.

[funster]

DFW basically says, no big deal.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS TODAY TRENDED A BIT WARMER THAN 00Z RUNS...BUT ARE STILL COLD
ENOUGH FOR WINTER WEATHER. MAXIMUM SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RUN IN
A SWATH FROM COMANCHE TO ARLINGTON TO EMORY...WITH ONE TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE METROPLEX. THIS IS NOT SNOW ON THE
GROUND...BUT SNOW FALLING. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES FROM MID MORNING
THURSDAY TO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL MELT. THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN MIX IN...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES.

AFTER THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND A QUICK
COLD SHOT/UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO COME ACROSS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
LEFT THE PREVIOUS LOW POPS TO COVER THIS SYSTEM.

Snow on the ground, snow on the ground, looking like a fool with no snow on the ground.

[WacoWx]

^^^THANK YOU! i needed that!