Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

Corpus 10AM Update:

WILL BE LOOKING THROUGH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA BUT LIKELIHOOD
FOR WINTER STORM WATCH IS GOING UP FOR WINTRY MIX AND CONCERN FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A BIT DISCONCERTING
IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE DONE SO POORLY WITH CURRENT
CLOUD DECK OVER REGION.

It appears as some have said here, including you srainhoutx, the models are not handling this week's weather well at all.

[Ntxw]

It appears as some have said here, including you srainhoutx, the models are not handling this week's weather well at all.

They have been terrible. Just look at how they are doing now. All of them have been adjusting trending wetter (CMC trending a bit less crazy). Overall they are good at pointing out a storm/where the cold should be etc. I think those who are looking for snow amount predictions...follow the upper low.

HIRES has snow breaking out and banding in SE Texas just N and E of Houston at hr 48.

[WacoWx]

Oh man, i just got into work and the snow has gone up to 40% here in Waco for Thursday night and Friday!!!!11!!1

Now, if only we could get enough to accumulate, I will be one happy weather nerd. I have the day off Friday and tomorrow is my last day in Waco HOLLAAAAA!

[Ntxw]

Oh man, i just got into work and the snow has gone up to 40% here in Waco for Thursday night and Friday!!!!11!!1

Now, if only we could get enough to accumulate, I will be one happy weather nerd. I have the day off Friday and tomorrow is my last day in Waco HOLLAAAAA!

GFS is showing snow early next week in Waco Mon/Tues

[WacoWx]

Oh man, i just got into work and the snow has gone up to 40% here in Waco for Thursday night and Friday!!!!11!!1

Now, if only we could get enough to accumulate, I will be one happy weather nerd. I have the day off Friday and tomorrow is my last day in Waco HOLLAAAAA!

GFS is showing snow early next week in Waco Mon/Tues

Of course it does, ill be in Houston

[Turtle]

Yesterday temps for Longview, TX:

MAX: 63 (+5)
MIN: 17 (-22)

AVG: 40 (-8)

So technically yesterday was just 8 degrees below average, nothing too col.d

[AggieSpirit]

How cold is it in Texas right now?

I successfully built an outdoor non-refrigerated rink beside my house. 4 inches at deepest point (frozen solid through). 30 x 25 ft width.

Login to facebook to view the video of my kid skating on the rink. I have it shared to everyone.

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php ... 6762675777

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian (GEM) looking good for Central and Coastal TX areas. Not as far N, though for folks in N TX. That model also suggest precip starting early tomorrow as well.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Looking out our window I'm watching the clouds above head due south so looks like we are sending something (cold) your way (and we are predicted to go above freezing a couple of times in the upcoming days so someone's going to get (again) the nasty, nasty cold that we had). I'm sure it will moderate somewhat before hitting your location though (I have my doubts you folks will hit -50 F with windchill ;o)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

After looking at the upper air patterns, i dont want to say E and NE of Houston wont get alot of precip, but i think the models are discounting the amount of moisture the ULL will pull in. I think everyone East of I-37 will get precip. The closer to the coast the amounts will go up. (Also depending on the banding of the Low.)


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Tireman4]

Looking out our window I'm watching the clouds above head due south so looks like we are sending something (cold) your way (and we are predicted to go above freezing a couple of times in the upcoming days so someone's going to get (again) the nasty, nasty cold that we had). I'm sure it will moderate somewhat before hitting your location though (I have my doubts you folks will hit -50 F with windchill ;o)

Thanks SS. You are a sweetheart. Sigh..LOL

[Ntxw]

The Canadian (GEM) looking good for Central and Coastal TX areas. Not as far N, though for folks in N TX. That model also suggest precip starting early tomorrow as well.

Yep Canadian has been trending less and less regards to moisture for the rest of Texas. Still a good shot at snowfall in SE Texas. Perhaps just not the crazy amounts it was having before. Also a bit colder this run vs 0z.

[HockeyTx82]

The Canadian (GEM) looking good for Central and Coastal TX areas. Not as far N, though for folks in N TX. That model also suggest precip starting early tomorrow as well.

Yep Canadian has been trending less and less regards to moisture for the rest of Texas. Still a good shot at snowfall in SE Texas. Perhaps just not the crazy amounts it was having before. Also a bit colder this run vs 0z.

Ok, so it sounds like we might be more snow in N TX? NWS has a small chance.

Are you talking about later this week or next week?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Looking out our window I'm watching the clouds above head due south so looks like we are sending something (cold) your way (and we are predicted to go above freezing a couple of times in the upcoming days so someone's going to get (again) the nasty, nasty cold that we had). I'm sure it will moderate somewhat before hitting your location though (I have my doubts you folks will hit -50 F with windchill ;o)

Thanks SS. You are a sweetheart. Sigh..LOL

I really do like sharing (and its so much fun seeing your reaction to cold)....would share all of it gladly with you so you could compare the two extremes in temp (we hit 120 F with humidity a couple of summers ago).

[Brandon8181]

The Canadian (GEM) looking good for Central and Coastal TX areas. Not as far N, though for folks in N TX. That model also suggest precip starting early tomorrow as well.

Yep Canadian has been trending less and less regards to moisture for the rest of Texas. Still a good shot at snowfall in SE Texas. Perhaps just not the crazy amounts it was having before. Also a bit colder this run vs 0z.

Ok, so it sounds like we might be more snow in N TX? NWS has a small chance.

It looks like the NAM and CMC are in agreement for the potential for snow on Friday... getting interesting. There also seems to be continued agreement for winter precip early next week.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Are you talking about later this week or next week?

[HockeyTx82]

Haha, Groundhog Day marathon on Encore today. This song is awesome, it’s in the movie. Listen to the lyrics.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taNRyQm16bc

All this time and I never really listed to the lyrics, it cracks me up.

[Snowman67]

All of SE Texas under a Winter Storm Watch

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[srainhoutx]

All of SE Texas under a Winter Storm Watch

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL OF SE TX...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIRMASS SETTLING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING WITH A 1045 MB HIGH
BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. DESPITE
THE CLEARING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED VERY LITTLE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF SE TX WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL AFTN...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
RECONFIGURED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING TO JUST CONTINUE FROM NOW
THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY.

DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM 18Z THURSDAY
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. TWO PRIMARY CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...NOW SHOWING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP ON THURSDAY AFTN. THE SECOND CHANGE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT
THAT IS PRESENT IN THE RECENT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SUGGESTS A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE AREA.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
PLACING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FROM
MATAGORDA TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO RYE IN LIBERTY COUNTY. FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZORIA COUNTY...THROUGH GALVESTON...
CHAMBERS...AND LIBERTY COUNTIES THIS IS LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY AN
ICE EVENT AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT INTENSIFIES WITH TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO SATISFY OUR CRITERIA FOR WINTER
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ICE THREAT AREA WHERE PWS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH. HAVE CHOSEN TO START THE WATCH AT NOON ON THURSDAY
SINCE MODELS SHOW THE ONSET OF PRECIP THU AFTN AND UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THU
AFTN.

THE ONE THING THAT WILL DIFFERENTIATE THIS EVENT WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIP EVENTS WE SAW LAST YEAR IS THE HIGHER THREAT OF ICING
DEVELOPING ON THE ROADWAYS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...SO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL EASILY RESULT IN A
TEMPERATURE DROP AT THE SFC WHEN THE PRECIP BEINGS. SFC TEMPS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE EVENTS LAST YEAR...SO EVEN IF
QPF TOTALS ARE LIGHT THE ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ICY AND
HAZARDOUS.

[iorange55]

Woo for South Texas! Enjoy it. I won't be too mad if we miss out on it because just looking at the trends I have a feeling next week might be our shot for snow.


Should be snow too and not this nasty weird ice mix. Still a ways out though.

[HockeyTx82]

Lots of sun up here in Denton. I can see clouds to the south. Wonder how warm we will get today and how much ice will "melt".