Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Quixotic]

Going to go out on a limb here and say we have something to track within a week.

Said it earlier but same. You'll never convince me we don't get another shot

3 weeks ago I wasn't even sure it was going to snow here at all this winter and now we can't get rid of it the walkway here is still icy

I just shoveled the walkway and driveway. Looks like iceberg that sunk the titanic is in my front yard. 10 days is pretty impressive.

[Stratton23]

We got a long ways to go , but their have been some positive trends in ensembles today across the board, especially the GEFS, starting to see more ridging showing up in the GOA, which isnt perfect for cold, but its a step in the right direction, particularly the overnight GEFS to this afternoons GEFS run is quite the change

[Quixotic]

1995 or 1996, a 99F February day was followed a week later by an ice storm. But that doesn't always happen.

Pretty certain the storm happened first in 96 and DFW got down to 8 and two weeks later we hit 98. La Niña type stuff.

[txtwister78]

Saturday and Sunday 80's now showing up across SC TX. I love that personally. If its not going to be cold with snow chances around give me some outdoor spring weather over muck in the 50's with drizzle.Just saying.

[bubba hotep]

Similar look at the end of the Euro.

[txtwister78]

Similar look at the end of the Euro.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026020212/360/500hv.na.png

Looks like a spring severe weather setup with that look.

[bubba hotep]

Similar look at the end of the Euro.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026020212/360/500hv.na.png

Tornado watch for SE Texas and Winter Storm Warnings in the north.

[Stratton23]

NWS has mid 70’s here this weekend, the disgust is real, awful

[gpsnowman]

70s on Super Bowl Sunday won't be terrible. I'm smoking some ribs for the game. Yummy.

[orangeblood]

We got a long ways to go , but their have been some positive trends in ensembles today across the board, especially the GEFS, starting to see more ridging showing up in the GOA, which isnt perfect for cold, but its a step in the right direction, particularly the overnight GEFS to this afternoons GEFS run is quite the change

It better start trending there soon, March will be here before you know than likely game over (outside of bowling ball low snow season)

[Harp.1]

It’s mind blowing how things can change in just a matter of a couple of days. From elation to despair. Just an observation on my part. Hard to know what to believe.

[rwfromkansas]

I'm still hopeful; these things can change on a dime. But, if it still shows that in another week, well, it might be time to start looking to severe weather season and just hope for a surprise.

We had one good event up here. Just wish it was more snow.

[orangeblood]

It’s mind blowing how things can change in just a matter of a couple of days. From elation to despair. Just an observation on my part. Hard to know what to believe.

AO forecast from the models was the main culprit...went from indicating record negative territory for mid-month to now just neutral in the matter of a few model runs. It was a substantial change!

[Wthrfan]

[list=][/list]

Ensemble members teleconnection forecasts are really unfavorable for winter weather in the southern plains mid month, not a good signal! AO/NAO going neutral, EPO +, WPO +, PNA -. Where is the cold going to go from and how is it going to get here ? Pacific Jet is slamming into West Coast mid month

I'm purely a novice but enjoy reading what people post on here. I won't copy and paste because it's copyrighted material, but LC's extended range post from this weekend said don't let the next 6-10 days fool you into thinking winter is over. He said a connection to an arctic vortex will bring some really cold weather down from Quebec leading to a cold end of the month into early March. Believes there will be a storm or two as well and mentions Texas.

[txtwister78]

It’s mind blowing how things can change in just a matter of a couple of days. From elation to despair. Just an observation on my part. Hard to know what to believe.

Welcome to mother nature my friend especially in the south but to your point, the fly in the oitment that wasn't apparent a few days ago was the positive WPO. That along with +EPO is just too much to overcome because it floods the country with pacific air. In addition the PV isn't going to help as models were indicating it would by mid month hence the teleconnection changes.

All of that to say this pushes back your window for cold to make another appearance into late February and of course by then you're dealing with climatology barriers relative to averages which obviously by then climb so you would really need something big to show up to overcome that. Hopefully we can get that to satisfy everyone (just about everyone I should say) before Spring truly arrives

[Harp.1]

[list=][/list]

Ensemble members teleconnection forecasts are really unfavorable for winter weather in the southern plains mid month, not a good signal! AO/NAO going neutral, EPO +, WPO +, PNA -. Where is the cold going to go from and how is it going to get here ? Pacific Jet is slamming into West Coast mid month

Yeah, I mentioned his latest post a day or so ago. That’s why I mentioned it’s so hard to know what to believe

I'm purely a novice but enjoy reading what people post on here. I won't copy and paste because it's copyrighted material, but LC's extended range post from this weekend said don't let the next 6-10 days fool you into thinking winter is over. He said a connection to an arctic vortex will bring some really cold weather down from Quebec leading to a cold end of the month into early March. Believes there will be a storm or two as well and mentions Texas.

Yeah, I mentioned his post a day or so ago. Hard to know what to believe

[Stratton23]

I just had the chance to talk with LC privately yesterday on messenger, and i brought up the models losing the blocking in mid february, hes still saying mid month is the time to watch, i guess we will see

[bubba hotep]

Going to go out on a limb here and say we have something to track within a week.

Said it earlier but same. You'll never convince me we don't get another shot

3 weeks ago I wasn't even sure it was going to snow here at all this winter and now we can't get rid of it the walkway here is still icy

I just shoveled the walkway and driveway. Looks like iceberg that sunk the titanic is in my front yard. 10 days is pretty impressive.

Spent all yesterday afternoon busting up a 15" thick mountain that was blocking our garage. Way harder than I thought it was going to be! Kids started out helping, but quickly faded when they realized busting ice in the shade was cold and hard work lol

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I mentioned a few days ago if the models delay or remove the change to cold, then it probably won't happen. That's what is happening unfortunately. Later we go, it would come from a ULL, which can produce alot of snow sometimes. Was hoping for a pv split to get it cold again, but it looks like it won't happen

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it to 71 today. But change from this time last week.