SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[Ntxw]

Stay safe to all of you guys in East\southeast Texas. Night time severe weather is the worst as everyone is sleeping. Weather radios

[jasons2k]

About to move through here now - looks like this will be even more intense than the first line. Still very windy outside too:


Shot at 2009-12-24


Shot at 2009-12-24

[vbhoutex]

Woke me up when it came through with 50 mph gusts and intense lightning. Highest measured gust at nearest weatherbug site was 49 mph. Temp dropped from 69ºf to 51ºf in less than 10 mins. Looks like an interesting day for much of TX with the Northern part of the state getting in on the biggest action winter weather wise. Will be interesting to see what happens with the wrap around on this one since it is tracking further South and slower than anticipated.

[srainhoutx]

Well, we were without power for most of the early morning. Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Rough night over the area as squall line blasted through on Pacific cold front.

Full scale winter storm developing over NW and N TX will bring the first white Christmas in decades to N TX

Significant travel impacts today with large winter storm and powerful winds both at the surface and in the air.

Powerful upper level low centered near Abilene this morning will move ENE and then NE today while surface low pressure over NE TX deepens and moves NE. Locally lingering rains will end in the next few hours while strong pressure rises and falling pressures to the north create very strong WNW to NW winds today. Expect sustained speeds of 30mph or greater with 40mph gust. Clear skies tonight and snow pack across N TX will result in cold air drainage southward on light N winds with temps. near or below freezing across the region. Will only recover to near 50 on Christmas Day and then over the weekend high clouds may keep us locked in the upper 40's this weekend

N TX Winter Storm:

Near full scall blizzard will unfold today over NW and N TX. Reports from NW TX already have near white out conditions in heavy snow/blowing snow. Track of the upper low and dynamical cooling is close enough to bring heavy snow to DFW starting this morning into the afternoon. Sustained winds of 40mph with gust over 50mph along with heavy snow bands will result in blowing and drifting along fences, roadways, and buildings. Expect at least 1-3" across the NW parts of N TX with locally 6" possible. Drifting will be as deep as 1-2 feet in some locations. May need to go with a blizzard warning for portions of NW and N TX today. Air travel and surface travel will be nearly impossible under such conditions with white out conditions possible at times. Rapid accumulations and blowing snow may trap traffic on N/S interstates as powerful WNW winds blows near zero visibilities 2-3 feet off the ground.

This system will lift NNE into the Midwest tonight with a large area of adverse weather developing from N TX to Canada to the western Great Lakes. Travel in this area including several major airports will be hazardous.

Next storm system due in as early as Monday with potential for a mix of precipitation from rain to freezing rain to sleet as large cold polar high remains entrenched over TX. For now will keep everything liquid over our area...but newer data over the next 2-3 days may result in changes to the forecast for next week.

[jasons2k]

Luckilyu I didn't lose power

Up here, it was pretty intense for a few minutes, like a strong tropical storm. I did see a transformer flash very close by and our lights flickered off and on for about a second. I thought for sure we had lost power but it came right back up. But I could tell to the west if was much darker -- the section that lost power was very close to us. We probably had a few gusts in the 50-60mph range. Lots of yard debris too.

[southerngale]

I had a little flashlight in my pocket but fortunately, I didn't lose power either. It was pretty intense for a pretty short time here as well. It rained/stormed a lot off and on all night, in brief bursts, before the squall line arrived, which moved through fairly quickly. It was rather windy as well. During the squall ine, the wind was howling and I heard some racket in the backyard. It sounded like part of my patio roof blew off, but it was still there. lol I think it may have lifted it a little or something. I don't know. There are a few small items in the yard that had been on the patio, but it didn't sound like them blowing around. I haven't ventured outside yet today, but it sure is WET out there! Lots of standing water. Welcome to an El Nino winter, eh?



MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVERYONE!

[srainhoutx]

Another e-mail from Jeff...

Strong winds pounding much of TX with snow dropping as far south as just north of Austin.

Frequent wind gust to 40mph over the region with Victoria gusting to 44mph and Palacios 47mph. Impressive winter storm continues to wrap up over N TX right over FWD with large band of moderate to heavy snow dropping SE from Brownwood to about 2 counties NW of Austin. Blizzard conditions in progress over NW TX with near zero visibilities in heavy snow and blowing snow. Could see light SN/flurries clip our northern counties this afternoon in strong CAA regime as secondary cold surge drives south on the backside of the upper storm.
Winds will continue to gust up to and over 40mph this afternoon before weakening after sunset.

[srainhoutx]

Merry Christmas SE TX/ SW LA members. Keep and eye out on Sunday and Monday. May see some rain and sleet mixture with the disturbance crossing the Baja.

[vbhoutex]

I echo Steve's Merry Christmas!! Those winds were BRUTAL yesterday!!! They didn't settle till late in the evening, so with the temps in the low 30's by then we thought we had been beamed elsewhere, except the ground wasn't covered with snow. Wind chills were in the low 20's. Woke up to 30.5f this am. It would have been into the 20's if the wind had quit earlier. At least it is properly cold for Christmas.

[southerngale]

Merry Christmas guys & gals! Sitting at 35° - had a low of 28° it sure feels like Christmas! It's definitely not as windy as yesterday, but wind chills are in the upper 20's currently. Brrr!! And it looks like some pretty chilly temps for the foreseeable future. We just need some moisture to add to the mix! heh


Edit at noon: it's now a balmy 40° - there's still a layer of ice in my birdbath. So much better than shorts on Christmas! Yeah, I'm one of those who can't stand it when it's warm on Christmas. It's just not right.

[srainhoutx]

Some intersting thoughts from Larry Cosgrove tonight in the Houston Examiner...

A longtime resident of the Houston area told me yesterday that he felt this winter was one of the earliest starting, coldest that he ever experienced. While the final tally on this cold season has yet to be written down, the 500MB longwave pattern is setting up to be the chilliest in recent memory. And not just for Houston, but for many parts of the U.S.
Temperatures may turn a bit milder to start the last four days of 2009, but any moderation will be short-lived. Two disturbances may bring chances for rainfall over the following 96 hours. One minor impulse jumping out of the subtropical jet stream in Mexico may provide some light to moderate precipitation on Tuesday. On New Year's Eve, an advancing cold front will run into that same southern branch windfield, triggering some heavier rain and thunder. And while the rainfall should be out of the way long before we ring in 2010, I will warn you that the same malady which befell Christmas night will strike again when we sing "Auld Lang Syne". Gusty winds and plunging temperatures will linger into New Year's Day.

The colder values will be driven by blocking pattern centered over Greenland. The computer models are showing a rare vast -AO/-NAO signal (joined by a +PNA ridge complex after January 5) that favors strong high pressure in central and eastern Canada against a developing storm along the coastline of the Carolinas on January 1. If you have ANY flight plans to the Interstate 95 corridor this coming weekend, be aware that there is still a threat for a heavy ice and snow event accompanied by significant winds and coastal flooding. The operational forecast models often "lose" strong cyclogenesis events until about four days before occurrence! Note also that the various ensemble packages are very aggressive on a major winter storm affecting Appalachia and the East Coast in the December 31 - January 3 time frame, followed by an intrusion of Arctic air which could send shivers to all in the U.S. living to the right of the Rocky Mountains.
A special update of the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter will be published on Monday evening dealing with the threat of widespread cold and the potential for heavy snow and ice in the eastern third of the U.S. above Interstate 20.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... er-28-2009

[attallaman]

Merry Christmas guys & gals! Sitting at 35° - had a low of 28° it sure feels like Christmas! It's definitely not as windy as yesterday, but wind chills are in the upper 20's currently. Brrr!! And it looks like some pretty chilly temps for the foreseeable future. We just need some moisture to add to the mix! heh


Edit at noon: it's now a balmy 40° - there's still a layer of ice in my birdbath. So much better than shorts on Christmas! Yeah, I'm one of those who can't stand it when it's warm on Christmas. It's just not right.

Congratulations on your Dallas Cowboys in their victory against the Washington Redskins, my New Orleans Saints didn't do as good against Tampa Bay today.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Strong storm system will impact the area tonight through midday Wednesday.



Next El Nino enhanced weather system is currently offshore of Baja this morning moving eastward. Extensive high level cirrus will be spreading eastward today and tonight ahead of this storm with the active sub-tropical flow. IR images also show rapidly advancing cloud shield up the lower TX coast in conjunction with developing surface trough. Dry and cold air mass remains entrenched at the surface as cold air advection remains with higher pressures builds into the region from the north.



Will see little to no air mass modification with this storm when compared to the last (which produced a devastating EF3 tornado on the 23rd over Lufkin, TX and then all the strong winds on the 24th). This system will be much colder with no inland penetration of the warm sector and widespread cold rain over SE TX with sleet/snow on the NW edge over the NW Hill Country into the DFW area. Will see clouds thicken and lower tonight with rapid onset of light rain midday Tuesday as upglide of moist air over the surface cold dome commences. Initially dry surface layer will result in some wet bulb cooling as rainfall begins and expect temperatures to hover in the upper 30’s to low 40’s all day Tuesday. Could see the onset of precipitation as sleet or sleet/rain mix especially north of I-10, but there will be no accumulations and the profiles quickly warm to an all rain sounding by early afternoon Tuesday.


Coastal low forms off of S TX yet again and tracks toward Sabine Pass by early Wednesday. Widespread rains will encompass much of the area with lift maximized Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s for the entire event under cold air advection and rainfall. System should exit east by midday Wednesday with clearing late in the day…expect temperatures to struggle to make the 50 degree mark on Wed.



Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches will be common SE of US 59 with amounts of an inch or less N of US 59. Frozen precipitation will be held mainly W of I35 and north of Waco where 1-3 inches of snow accumulation will be possible from San Angelo to Fort Worth.



The warmest day of the week will come Thursday as SW winds ahead of a strong short wave/trough/modified arctic cold front arrives Thursday evening. Impressive dynamics appear with this system, but moisture looks lacking except on the CMC which produces a little bit of QPF Thursday evening. Air mass behind this front will be cold…and suspect it may be colder than guidance is showing given the large snow pack now in place from Canada to OK after the big blizzard this past weekend. Will undercut the GFS MEX numbers by at least 5 degrees for highs and lows and show freezing temps. again by Saturday morning with highs closer to 50 instead of 55.


Long range continues to show a cold and stormy pattern into the first two weeks of 2010.



Christmas Eve/Day Winter Storm:



A historic winter storm affected a large part of the central US and TX Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Heavy snowfall and blowing snow building to near blizzard conditions impacted NW and N TX on the 24th. Snowfall amounts of 8-12 inches occurred from Brownwood TX to Whicita Falls, TX with over 14-18 inches over central OK. Snow drifts along portions of US 287 in Montague County, TX were up to 4 feet on the evening of the 24th trapping motorist in their vehicles on the interstate. DFW recorded their first measurable snow on Christmas Eve since 1929 and Waco recorded is first ever measurable Christmas Eve snowfall. Powerful winds affected much of TX behind the departing system on the 24th with frequent gust to and over 40mph.



24th Wind Gusts:



IAH: 46mph

Galveston: 53mph

College Station: 44mph

Hobby: 51mph

Conroe: 45mph

Tomball: 48mph

Sugar Land: 56mph

Palacios: 53mph

Pearland: 46mph

Victoria: 56mph

Waco: 45mph

Fort Worth: 46mph

Port Aransas: 52mph

Alice: 64mph

Kingsville: 58mph

Corpus Christi NAS: 59mph

Corpus Christi Int Airport: 55mph

[vbhoutex]

Yep, it looks to be what we in SE TX call a COLD and somewhat wet week. This morning we had the 4th freeze of this season here at the house. That is UNUSUAL for at least the last 20 years. Is it a precursor to the rest of Winter? Don't know for sure, but the modeling is suggesting that this type of weather will continue for at least a few more weeks if not longer. Normally our(SE TX) coldest months are January and February. Most of our snows(we have so many!!LOL!!) also occur during these two months(ala 1973 which may be an analog for this season). IMHO, it's gonna a be an interesting and possibly wild ride for our area(comparative to previous years). I certainly wouldn't want to be a forecaster having to issue forecasts that the less knowledgeable(than weather weenies) public must rely on.
Our yard looks like those wind reports were taken right here!(nearest weatherbug showed 49 mph gust) I have a yard crew, but I really need to get out and pick up some of the small limbs that came down. I guess there is a good side to the wind. It wasn't during a Hurricane and it helps clean out the trees early so there is less to come down if we do have a TC.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thought this afternoon...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN RESULTING IN DRY/COOL
CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NE ZONES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA REGION THIS AFTN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN THE NEXT RAIN EVENT FOR SE TX. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING QUICKLY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING LATER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP. NOW LOOKS MORE
LIKE THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND
MIDDAY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. 18Z GFS BUFR SOUNDING FOR KLFK
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...WITH BUFR SOUNDING FOR KCLL
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SLEET. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE
WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE 16-22Z TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS
WILL WARM QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTN...WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY SHOWING ALL RAIN. WILL FORECAST A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE
TO LIVINGSTON TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING WITH PRECIP VERY LIGHT SO NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THIS...AND SITUATION COULD BE COVERED BY A QUICK SHORT-LIVED
ADVISORY ON TUESDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP ALONG WITH
WET-BULB COOLING EFFECT WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS TUESDAY. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVELS
WARM. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS
SE TX GOES INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 110 KT JET MAX AT 300 MB.
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2
INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 59. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE COAST. SFC LOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL FINALLY REACH LOUISIANA COAST WED AFTN PULLING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY MID AFTN WEDNESDAY
WITH RAPID CLEARING THEREAFTER. WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS COULD RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
WILL SQUEEZE IN ONE NICE...MILDER DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE POLAR
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN
20 POPS WITH THE FROPA. COLDER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. FREEZING TEMPS
ARE LIKELY MOST INLAND LOCATIONS FRI NIGHT. NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS THIS PERIOD...MILDER TEMPS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SHOWERS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>198-291100-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA
340 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR OVERRIDING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE LIGHT RAIN TO MIX
WITH LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE
WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE 10 AM TO 4 PM TUESDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ALL RAIN FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY...AND
THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT...SO NO ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH
TOMORROW FOR ANY CHANGES.

[vbhoutex]

I think there may be some surprises as people wake up and/or as the precipitation begins in the morning, at least in SE TX. It is currently 32f at the house and we still have clear skies which is good for radiational cooling. If the temps do not start to warm, which isn't currently progged, and if the skies don't cloud over soon, which it doesn't look like they will after checking outside, we may end up with lower temps than expected at onset of precip later today which could lead to more wintry precip than forecast for tomorrow. The kicker here may be that if precip onsets later than expected then there will be time for more warming to above freezing temps.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff..looks interesting for next week...

Next storm system will move into the region late today and into Wednesday.



Potent upper level trough approaching SW TX from N Mexico this morning with shield of rain/sleet/snow mixture expanding across much of TX. Mid level cloud deck has rolled up the coast overnight and this deck will continue to thicken and lower as moist southerly flow overruns the cold dome at the surface. A coastal surface trough will develop into a surface low off the lower TX coast this evening and move up the coast ahead of the short wave ejecting out of Mexico. Widespread light rain will develop this afternoon and increase in coverage and intensity tonight into early Wednesday before ending from west to east Wednesday afternoon. See no need to mention any snow/sleet across SE TX, although the onset of rainfall over the College Station area may mix with sleet early this afternoon. With surface temperatures above freezing there will be no accumulations of any kind.



Expect a widespread rainfall of .5 to 1.5 inches across the region with the heaviest rains focused along and S of US 59 where best moisture and lift will reside.



System will be east of the area early Thursday with dry SW winds allowing warming into the low to mid 60’s prior to a sharp polar front arriving New Year’s Eve evening. Expect gusty north winds under strong cold air advection after dark driving temperatures into the 40’s. Cold arctic air mass will entrench over the region this weekend with lows back near freezing and highs in the lower 50’s.



GFS and other models continue to show a large arctic high building over NW Canada the first week of January and release this air mass almost due south down the great plains next week. Given 1048mb high noted on the GFS over S Dakota ridging southward would expect some pretty cold air to come southward. Will undercut GFS guidance this weekend by 1-4 degrees and then by as much as 5-10 degrees for early to mid next week. GFS keeps noisy sub-tropical jet close by…mainly just south of our region over the coastal bend and south Texas. For now will go with a dry forecast with cold arctic dome in firm control, but may need to add a mention of precipitation at some point in the 4-8 time period given development of NW Gulf surface lows in the GFS…bears close watch.

[vbhoutex]

I think there may be some surprises as people wake up and/or as the precipitation begins in the morning, at least in SE TX. It is currently 32f at the house and we still have clear skies which is good for radiational cooling. If the temps do not start to warm, which isn't currently progged, and if the skies don't cloud over soon, which it doesn't look like they will after checking outside, we may end up with lower temps than expected at onset of precip later today which could lead to more wintry precip than forecast for tomorrow. The kicker here may be that if precip onsets later than expected then there will be time for more warming to above freezing temps.

Well it happened. Temp went up 10 degrees overnight, Just gonna be wet and cold. UGH!!

[srainhoutx]

Light rain in NW Harris County now. Looking toward next week, the GFs as well as most ensembles continue to suggest some very chilly air headed S into TX as well as SE TX/SW LA. We will need to keep an eye out for this event next week as there is a lot of potential for some wntry precip in our area with cold air established well into TX.

[vbhoutex]

Radar returns are indicating the possibility of some sleet moving into the area from the W and SW. If there isn't sleet in those returns then we are going to get some brief heavy rains, which aren't currently expected till tomorrow in our area.