Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[TideJoe]

NWS JAN is still saying "snow likely". 70% chance tonight. It's only warmed 3 degrees since sunrise.

I think we're going to see some snow..... the question is "how much". Models (even the GFS) are trending wetter and west which should increase our accumulations some.

[Brent]

Tonight...Snow or rain likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Saturday...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow in the morning...then sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

[timNms]

Snowing like crazy in Houston, TX now lol. Cantore is there

I think we may get more here than NWS is calling for. I think they are too quick to jump on model runs. Radar lighting up now in southern Texas.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... on=default

It is always hard to predict snow events in our area. I remember the snow we had last Dec (11th i think it was). No accumulations expected. We ended up with over 3 inches. NWS issued a winter storm warning after the fact LOL.

[attallaman]

I just got a call from Cypress, TX, relative said it was beginning to snow pretty good there. It's 49F here and the sun is out, have we missed out on getting some snow? The sun is shining right now here in Biloxi, strange.

[iorange55]

I just got a call from Cypress, TX, relative said it was beginning to snow pretty good there. It's 49F here and the sun is out, have we missed out on getting some snow? The sun is shining right now here in Biloxi, strange.

I don't believe you were supposed to get anything yet. The NWS is calling for rain tonight for your area, then changing to some snow overnight. However they don't expect any accumulations.

[Brent]

I just got a call from Cypress, TX, relative said it was beginning to snow pretty good there. It's 49F here and the sun is out, have we missed out on getting some snow? The sun is shining right now here in Biloxi, strange.

The snow will be after dark, probably after 9-10pm.

[attallaman]

I just got a call from Cypress, TX, relative said it was beginning to snow pretty good there. It's 49F here and the sun is out, have we missed out on getting some snow? The sun is shining right now here in Biloxi, strange.

I don't believe you were supposed to get anything yet. The NWS is calling for rain tonight for your area, then changing to some snow overnight. However they don't expect any accumulations.

That sounds about right. I'll settle for an inch of snow if it would stick just to get a few good pics. When it snowed last December in NOLA it didn't snow one flake here but areas well north of here got pretty good coverage, Christmas card snow scene coverage. My local on the 8's is still saying an 80% chance of rain, locally up to one inch, no mention of anything turning into sleet or snow, just rain. Those who are getting it today enjoy it and take lots of pics. My 2 cameras are still ready but I might not be using them.

[attallaman]

I just got a call from Cypress, TX, relative said it was beginning to snow pretty good there. It's 49F here and the sun is out, have we missed out on getting some snow? The sun is shining right now here in Biloxi, strange.

I don't believe you were supposed to get anything yet. The NWS is calling for rain tonight for your area, then changing to some snow overnight. However they don't expect any accumulations.

iorange55, nice avatar.

[Ivanhater]

Just got done with my last class today, so I will be on snow duty from now on

The models have really not been handling the cold airmass coming down. Highs busted yesterday and most likely will today. A high of 55 today, but it is 1:00 and its only 46 degrees at Pensacola Airport.

Interesting night tonight!

[attallaman]

Just got done with my last class today, so I will be on snow duty from now on

The models have really not been handling the cold airmass coming down. Highs busted yesterday and most likely will today. A high of 55 today, but it is 1:00 and its only 46 degrees at Pensacola Airport.

Interesting night tonight!

Snow patrol! Snow patrol! Ivanhater, you think I might get some snow here later tonight or just rain?

[Ivanhater]

Just got done with my last class today, so I will be on snow duty from now on

The models have really not been handling the cold airmass coming down. Highs busted yesterday and most likely will today. A high of 55 today, but it is 1:00 and its only 46 degrees at Pensacola Airport.

Interesting night tonight!

Snow patrol! Snow patrol! Ivanhater, you think I might get some snow here later tonight or just rain?

Snow!

[Brent]

The NAM looks really good. I tend to lean towards it based on what's happening in Houston but still not getting my hopes up.

[attallaman]

Just got done with my last class today, so I will be on snow duty from now on

The models have really not been handling the cold airmass coming down. Highs busted yesterday and most likely will today. A high of 55 today, but it is 1:00 and its only 46 degrees at Pensacola Airport.

Interesting night tonight!

Snow patrol! Snow patrol! Ivanhater, you think I might get some snow here later tonight or just rain?

Snow!

Yee hah! Bring it on!

[attallaman]

Which website has the best radar images right now of the snow? The NWS, Accuweather? Who? Just curious. WWL-TV 4 out of NOLA has a very good weather radar which I check frequently during stormy days but it's range to the W doesn't even go to BR but it's a good weather radar for capturing images E of BR to here along the MGC to Mobile. If anything does fall from the sky here later tonight I'll be checking WWL's weather radar out a lot.

[Steve H.]

Just for kix, look at the t=312 12Z GFS!!! Monster low going thru the SE and off the Carolina coast bringing wrap around snows to even north-central Florida!! Mere fiction now, but may be the pattern that is setting up to bring a cold and snowy Easren US for Christmas. Low essentially stalls off the east coast til the 20th!!

[timNms]

Hey, look what I found.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CST FRI DEC 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED…S/CNTRL LA/MS

CONCERNING…HEAVY SNOW

VALID 041813Z – 042215Z

CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING…WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVER PARTS
SRN/CNTRL LA AND MS. RATES NEAR .5 TO 1 INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EWD…WITH NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT DRIVING A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SEWD TO THE GULF COAST AS THIS OCCURS. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS LEADING TO SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MUCH OF TX/LA. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR N CNTRL TX TO DEVELOP SEWD…WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO FALLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. 18Z LCH SOUNDING INDICATES A SHALLOW LAYER OF
SUBSATURATED AIR BELOW 900 MB WHERE WET-BULB PROCESSES WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WET-BULB EFFECTS/COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO A FASTER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW THAN MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEAR THE COAST WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR .75 TO 1
INCH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION RATES/EFFICIENCY.
ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING…STEADY SNOWFALL
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ACCUMULATION.

[JonathanBelles]

GFS says the south may be very snowy the week before Christmas!

[sphelps8681]

Just started snowing pretty good here in Lumberton, Tx.

Ya!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

GFS says the south may be very snowy the week before Christmas!

[Brent]

Raised totals slightly, and this is encouraging from an area further north than the heaviest snow should be:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
143 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BEGIN SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

ALZ008>010-TNZ097-050400-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0002.091205T0600Z-091205T1500Z/
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...
FORT PAYNE...WINCHESTER
143 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT...LASTING INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS ALONG WITH
SLIPPERY SPOTS ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES...AND USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HUNTSVILLE.