Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Jarodm]

wel if gfs, verifys the nam then i think its a safe bet for some snow tommarow, how much who knows leave that to the experts.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 00Z NAM still appears to have some moisture lingering Monday night..

[iorange55]

The 00Z NAM still appears to have some moisture lingering Monday night..

Yeah, it's very light. Has it hanging around southwest of us, I don't know if the rest of this run will bring it through or not. Either way this was a very good run.

It is colder, and gives areas just west of us some snow and possibly even a little here. It is going to be very close.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 00Z NAM still appears to have some moisture lingering Monday night..

Yeah, it's very light. Has it hanging around southwest of us, I don't know if the rest of this run will bring it through or not. Either way this was a very good run.

It is colder, and gives areas just west of us some snow and possibly even a little here. It is going to be very close.

So what're your thoughts for monday night? Light snow/freezing drizzle?

[Ntxw]

Still hoping the models are underestimating the possible intensity of the shortwave ejecting (not the one tonight but the final one). Probably will not have much to work with but FW NWS said it last Feb before our snow event leading up to the Superbowl, these type of cut off lows tend to find the moisture. Aside from all that it sure is raw and chilly! I almost forgot what it's like to be in 100 degree weather

[iorange55]

The 00Z NAM still appears to have some moisture lingering Monday night..

Yeah, it's very light. Has it hanging around southwest of us, I don't know if the rest of this run will bring it through or not. Either way this was a very good run.

It is colder, and gives areas just west of us some snow and possibly even a little here. It is going to be very close.

So what're your thoughts for monday night? Light snow/freezing drizzle?

Light flurries perhaps? I'm more optimistic about the chances tonight than when I woke up this morning. Maybe the GFS will start to hint at something.

[iorange55]

Still hoping the models are underestimating the possible intensity of the shortwave ejecting (not the one tonight but the final one). Probably will not have much to work with but FW NWS said it last Feb before our snow event leading up to the Superbowl, these type of cut off lows tend to find the moisture. Aside from all that it sure is raw and chilly! I almost forgot what it's like to be in 100 degree weather

That last line is so true. I went out for a walk today and was trying to remember what it felt like four months ago. I would take the 40s over the 100s any day.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Yeah, it's very light. Has it hanging around southwest of us, I don't know if the rest of this run will bring it through or not. Either way this was a very good run.

It is colder, and gives areas just west of us some snow and possibly even a little here. It is going to be very close.[/quote]
So what're your thoughts for monday night? Light snow/freezing drizzle?[/quote]

Light flurries perhaps? I'm more optimistic about the chances tonight than when I woke up this morning. Maybe the GFS will start to hint at something.[/quote]
Thanks for your beneficial input! Also, what's the latest RR model showing, is it still showing snowfall? I can't seem to figure out the model. Sorry for my ignorance of that model.

[iorange55]

Thanks for your beneficial input! Also, what's the latest RR model showing, is it still showing snowfall? I can't seem to figure out the model. Sorry for my ignorance of that model.

Through 11hrs it is kind of on the same track as the NAM. Decent snowfall somewhere around the Abilene area. Now through 15hrs, shows the snowfall creeping closer to DFW. Looks like DFW north would get some light snow, according to this run.

Time to take a break 'til the GFS comes out. Cross your fingers for good news!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Thanks for your beneficial input! Also, what's the latest RR model showing, is it still showing snowfall? I can't seem to figure out the model. Sorry for my ignorance of that model.

Through 11hrs it is kind of on the same track as the NAM. Decent snowfall somewhere around the Abilene area.

Now through 15hrs, shows the snowfall creeping closer to DFW. Looks like DFW north would get some light snow, according to this run.

That's interesting! It'd be nice if it wasn't piling up on all the moisture too; maybe we'd have a surprise snowstorm

[somethingfunny]

Still hoping the models are underestimating the possible intensity of the shortwave ejecting (not the one tonight but the final one). Probably will not have much to work with but FW NWS said it last Feb before our snow event leading up to the Superbowl, these type of cut off lows tend to find the moisture. Aside from all that it sure is raw and chilly! I almost forgot what it's like to be in 100 degree weather

That last line is so true. I went out for a walk today and was trying to remember what it felt like four months ago. I would take the 40s over the 100s any day.

Ohhhhh I remember it. Tape your mouth and nose closed, slather butter on your face, and stand in front of an open oven. That ought to be a decent reminder.

[iorange55]

NWSFW UPDATE

THE NAM/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM WELL AND
DEVELOP A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WITH TWO MAIN BANDS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAND WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE
VERTICAL COLUMN SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
EASTLAND LINE. THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN
STEPHENS AND YOUNG COUNTY...AS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT IN PLACE AND HIGH
MIXING RATIOS...A SNOW BAND AIDED BY FRONTOGENTICAL LIFTING COULD
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR AND WILL FORECAST
1-2 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW FOR YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTY. ROADS SHOULD
BE PASSABLE GIVEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AND MAY HAVE TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WORSE THAN EXPECTED.
LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST AFTER 12Z
SHUTTING OFF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. THINK
LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN...AS DIURNAL
WARMING TAKES PLACE AFTER 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES AS
FAR EAST AS I-35 IN THE 8-10AM TIME FRAME AS THE PRECIP IS ENDING.

This is how it always starts...

[somethingfunny]

Per the NWS in Fort Worth tonight:

NO WINTER PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AT TAF SITES AS TEMPS
JUST LOOK TOO WARM. NAM HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE METROPLEX...AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER.

THE NEXT 15 HOURS WILL BE INTERESTING ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENTERING WEST TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS VERY STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AS EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ACTIVITY IN WEST
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THOUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AREAS...OVERSPREADING DEEP LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM
MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME INITIALIZING THE TROUGH AND THUS HAS
HAD SUBSEQUENT PROBLEMS WITH ITS MODEL PROGS. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE
HAD THE PRIVILEGE OF INGESTING 00Z UPPER AIR DATA AND HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEM MORE REALISTIC LOOKING AT CURRENT
DATA. THE NAM/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM WELL AND
DEVELOP A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WITH TWO MAIN BANDS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAND WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE
VERTICAL COLUMN SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
EASTLAND LINE. THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN
STEPHENS AND YOUNG COUNTY...AS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT IN PLACE AND HIGH
MIXING RATIOS...A SNOW BAND AIDED BY FRONTOGENTICAL LIFTING COULD
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR AND WILL FORECAST
1-2 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW FOR YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTY. ROADS SHOULD
BE PASSABLE GIVEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AND MAY HAVE TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WORSE THAN EXPECTED.
LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST AFTER 12Z
SHUTTING OFF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. THINK
LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN...AS DIURNAL
WARMING TAKES PLACE AFTER 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES AS
FAR EAST AS I-35 IN THE 8-10AM TIME FRAME AS THE PRECIP IS ENDING.

Edit:
This was just issued:



Compare that to this graphic released way back on Friday:



But, even if it doesn't snow, consider what we've already gotten!!!

[iorange55]

GFS 00Z still not picking up much so far.

I have faith, though! It's time to start wishing really hard for a surprise! The possibility is out there, let's see what happens with it.

FWIW newest RR shows snow for us in DFW.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

GFS 00Z still not picking up much so far.

I have faith, though! It's time to start wishing really hard for a surprise! The possibility is out there, let's see what happens with it.

FWIW newest RR shows snow for us in DFW.

Ho much is it showing?

[iorange55]

GFS 00Z still not picking up much so far.

I have faith, though! It's time to start wishing really hard for a surprise! The possibility is out there, let's see what happens with it.

FWIW newest RR shows snow for us in DFW.

Ho much is it showing?

Not a lot maybe a half inch, if that. But, the important part is the snow line crept further east/south a bit.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

GFS 00Z still not picking up much so far.

I have faith, though! It's time to start wishing really hard for a surprise! The possibility is out there, let's see what happens with


Not a lot maybe a half inch, if that. But, the important part is the snow line crept further east/south a bit.

GFS isn't showing as much moisture, compared to the NAM, tomorrow night into Tuesday, is it?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, is the RR model showing snow at hour 18 too?

[Turtle]

Are you guys talking about ~50 hours later? Because I checked the NAM and saw .1" of rain in the upper 30s. Hope it gets a little colder!

Ouch, I checked the 0z gfs and it showed no moisture around here.

[iorange55]

GFS isn't showing as much moisture, compared to the NAM, tomorrow night into Tuesday, is it?

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, is the RR model showing snow at hour 18 too?

No the GFS is being a scrooge, we will just have to wait and see! I'd put the odds of seeing at least some flurries around DFW at about 90%

Of course that is just MY opinion.

And, yeah it's showing some very light moisture around.