Texas Winter 2012-2013

[horselattitudesfarm]

Here's where the cold air has been. All these alaskan cities have been much colder than normal since the beginning of November as the following shows:


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[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 00Z GFS looks promising for Monday! Anybody see this?

[Ntxw]

After the early week changes, look to the end of the week when the NAO and AO will be at their lowest levels. Models have been on and off but it might be a storm to follow. A lot of shortwaves for the globals to pick and out handle.

[somethingfunny]

It seems like the 18z and 0z models didn't look very encouraging, based on the slowdown of activity here in the thread...

Keep faith! This has never been expected to be much more than a "flizzard". We still have that flizzard on the 18z and 0z GFS, only it's a bit farther west than the earlier runs had shown it. Everything is still set to occur; somebody's gonna get lucky!



It looks like a widespread flurries event, but I'll bet somebody out there gets a nice dusting to half inch.

And yeah it does look like there's several more chances for winter fun - maybe even actual rain!! - in the extended frames.

[wxman57]

Not much post-frontal moisture across Texas. Could be a few flakes in the panhandle, but that's about it.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

12Z NAM pulls up a little more moisture for north Texas and southern Oklahoma on Monday.

[Ntxw]

Regarding post frontal temperatures, GFS seems to be the outlier in keeping DFW in the upper 20s near 30. All other guidance suggest 25 or lower and upper teens on the west side outside the big cities. Also Austin is only freezing on the GFS while mid 20s elsewhere. A freeze in the northern and western suburbs of Houston likely so take care of those banana trees down there!

***
DFW's lowest temperature last season was 22, forecast 24
Austin's lowest temperature last season was 27, forecast 27
Houston's lowest temperature last season was 29, forecast 34

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Sugar Land is forecast for 32F as of now. I think we will hit that. It better start getting cold soon and stay cold for a while or my friends are going to think im an IDIOT. Been telling them for 6 months this winter was supposed to be really cold.

[Rgv20]

Tomorrow's forecast high for my area is 89F!! Followed by a forecast Tuesday morning low of 40F!! That's a 49F difference gotta love our weather huh lol




The odds of seeing showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday, along and ahead of a strong cold front that will sweep across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas Monday. Gusty north winds in wake of the front, occasionally reaching speeds around 30 MPH, will usher in a colder and drier airmass into the region by Monday night. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required over the marine area, and there's the possibility of gusts reaching gale force as well. Temperatures Monday are expected to gradually rise into the 50s and 60s over the region, with the northern brush country likely not making it out of the 50s. Mostly clear skies Monday night will allow temperatures to quickly fall after sunset, bottoming out in the middle 30s (Brush Country) to middle 40s (coast) by daybreak Tuesday. These colder temperatures will likely continue through the middle of the week. -Vega/Billings-

[weatherdude1108]

"Oh the weather outside is frightful -- the fire is so delightful..."

Special Statement

Expires 8:30 AM CST on December 08, 2012
Statement as of 6:19 am CST on December 8, 2012

... Springlike weather this weekend will give way to polar express
late Sunday into Monday...

A cold polar air-mass poised to enter into the U.S. Northern
plateau region later today will plunge south into the Texas
Panhandle late tonight and into south central Texas by tomorrow
evening. [/b]Ahead of this rapid shift to winter... a continued
warm... moist southerly flow will send temperatures well into the
70s to near 8o this afternoon and into the upper 70s to low 80s
Sunday afternoon with lows tonight mostly in the low to mid 60s.
These springlike high temperatures are some 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with the forecast lows close to what the normal highs would
be for this time of year.

This will all change tomorrow evening when the strong cold front
sweeps through the region. [b]Low temperatures will plunge near or
just below freezing by sunrise Monday across The Hill Country with
mid to upper 30s to near 40 along the I-35 corridor.[color=#0000FF] Breezy north
winds of 15 to 25 mph will accompany the building surface ridge
after midnight Monday and continue through much of the day. With
clear skies and diminishing winds Monday night... [/color]

This cold weather pattern will likely linger another day on Wednesday
before a return southerly flow starts a bonafide warming trend for
the latter part of next week.

[b]Preparations should be made for this period of cold weather. Tender
vegetation and pets should be protected. Outdoor pipes should also
be wrapped... especially over Hill Country locations where many
hours of subfreezing temperatures are expected.[/b]

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for later updates
on this upcoming cold weather event.

[wxman57]

My favorite part of that discussion:

This cold weather pattern will likely linger another day on Wednesday
before a return southerly flow starts a bonafide warming trend for
the latter part of next week.

Short-lived cold is more tolerable. Just got a long email from our long-range specialist. He loves cold weather (a "cold-mongerer" as I call him). The word from him is to expect a "W" Christmas across Texas. Not, "wet, not "white", but "WARM". Perhaps he's just sick today.

[Snowman67]

My favorite part of that discussion:

This cold weather pattern will likely linger another day on Wednesday
before a return southerly flow starts a bonafide warming trend for
the latter part of next week.

Short-lived cold is more tolerable. Just got a long email from our long-range specialist. He loves cold weather (a "cold-mongerer" as I call him). The word from him is to expect a "W" Christmas across Texas. Not, "wet, not "white", but "WARM". Perhaps he's just sick today.

Meh. I put about as much confidence in that prediction (the Christmas forecast) as I do a 384hr model forecast....

[Portastorm]

My favorite part of that discussion:

This cold weather pattern will likely linger another day on Wednesday
before a return southerly flow starts a bonafide warming trend for
the latter part of next week.

Short-lived cold is more tolerable. Just got a long email from our long-range specialist. He loves cold weather (a "cold-mongerer" as I call him). The word from him is to expect a "W" Christmas across Texas. Not, "wet, not "white", but "WARM". Perhaps he's just sick today.

Meh. I put about as much confidence in that prediction (the Christmas forecast) as I do a 384hr model forecast....

Nice post Snowman67! We can't let ol' HeatMiser get us rattled too much.

Even with a -NAO and -AO, we still are being undermined by the flow in the Pacific. Until we can pop a +PNA or -EPO, those of us who want wet and cold in Texas are SOL!

[Portastorm]

Below is the latest CFSv2 forecasts for temps/precip for the last half of the month. I'm pretty sure this is what Wxman57's Cold Mongerer buddy was looking at:



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[weatherguy425]

Hopefully at-least our source regions/northern plains will stay cool/snow-packed. Here's hoping for a nice late December-January. PNA has to rise sometime as Ntwx has mentioned;I would hope.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

My favorite part of that discussion:

This cold weather pattern will likely linger another day on Wednesday
before a return southerly flow starts a bonafide warming trend for
the latter part of next week.

Short-lived cold is more tolerable. Just got a long email from our long-range specialist. He loves cold weather (a "cold-mongerer" as I call him). The word from him is to expect a "W" Christmas across Texas. Not, "wet, not "white", but "WARM". Perhaps he's just sick today.

From Saskatchewan o´¯`❄.¸(░)`O.¸¸.¸.o´¯`❄. ¸ (░) `O. ❄。 ¨¯`*✲ ´*。. ❄¨¯`*✲。❄*´*。 ✲O. ¸¸. ¸. o´¯`o. ¸(░) `O. ¸¸. ✲. ¸. o´¯`¸. o´¯`❄¸ (░) `O. ¸¸.¸. ✲´¯`o. ¸ (░) `O. ¸❄。 `O.¸¸. ¸. o´¯`❄。 ¨¯`*✲.... ¸. o´¯`o. ¸ (░) `O.¸¸. ¸. o´¯`❄. ¸ (░) ´*。 ✲´*。.❄¨¯`*✲ *splat Heat Miser*

You and the Christmas Grinch must be best buddies.

[Tireman4]

Fun today. Hot soaked 7 miler. Fun. Setting up Christmas lawn ornaments in 83 degree heat, priceless. Running the A/C in December, memorable. Wearing shorts and shirt while setting up said ornaments, unbelievable. Thank you Wxman 57. We love you. Sigh.

[Ntxw]

Fun today. Hot soaked 7 miler. Fun. Setting up Christmas lawn ornaments in 83 degree heat, priceless. Running the A/C in December, memorable. Wearing shorts and shirt while setting up said ornaments, unbelievable. Thank you Wxman 57. We love you. Sigh.

Don't worry! Sometime within the next million year or so (global warming or not) the cold will win out . We are still technically in an ice age and Texas will return to it's subarctic climate like it was many thousands of years ago! Just looking at it in a grand scheme

For those who are depressed about the warm weather, the front is making it's way through Kansas and will enter the state not too long from now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I hope those predictions are wrong. Maybe this is setting up to be a second half winter like 2006-2007

[gpsnowman]

I am seriously in weather depression. Man, I live in the wrong part of the country. No rain and now a warm November and December have got me in the blues. This cold front will be a nice change of pace but a warm up will soon follow. Texas is home though so no use getting this way every time the weather is not to my liking. What gives? It seems to my novice mind that things are in place but the you hear cold is coming but hold on it is not and Oh wait here it comes again. Is it the pesky PNA? When will that darn thing go positive? I have learned a great deal in the last couple of years on this forum and I appreciate everything from everyone. Just when you think signals are ripe for winter, it is taken away. In a matter of hours at times! I am not giving up on winter yet. Things will change. Iorange55 once mentioned it is very rare that DFW goes two winters in a row without something. I believe that also. Keeping my hopes up!