Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Yepper. This one's gonna leave a mark. "In my amateur opinionTM" , the past year, and especially the past non-ice-event of last week, have caused the local mets to go waaay conservative on the potential of the next few days. Hopefully the advisories will go out in time to cause folks to prepare accordingly.

I mentioned earlier, worth mentioning again. It doesn't matter if it falls before, during, or after. Rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain it's going to freeze and it's going to stick for days. Potential for something we have not seen since 1989 or 1990.

[TwisterFanatic]

I've thought all a long this December would be similar to December of 2000. Even though the winter weather has started earlier than it did in 2000, the parallels are still there. Below is an excerpt from an article from a Texarkana radio station concerning the weather events of December 2000. The timing of the winter weather events are similar. They just started a little earlier this year.

BTW, I was without power for 8 days because of the Christmas day ice storm, and I was one of the lucky ones. Some people in the rural areas didn't have power for nearly a month. I'll never forget the sounds of helicopters flying overhead the next morning assessing the damage. When I walked outside, it looked like a war zone.

The day after the ice storm, FEMA crews were brought in to clear the streets of limbs and trees that littered the streets. There was no food, water or gas to be found in the Texarkana area. I had to drive to Mount Pleasant for supplies. Electrical crews from all over the country were brought in to restore power. They pretty much had to rebuild the whole electrical infrastructure from substations to power poles to power lines. One of the linesman who came in from Florida told me the tree damage and the damage to the electrical infrastructure was similar to hurricane Andrew, if not worse.

"2000 Ice Storms

Round #1 – On December 12th, an arctic airmass spilled southward out of the central plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. This cold airmass was overrun by a warm and humid airmass and created a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow across the region. Accumulations of 2-6 inches were common around NorthEast Texas and SouthWest, Arkansas and over 235,000 people were without power for up to two weeks.

Round #2 – As the area struggled to clean up from the first ice storm, another round of frozen precipitation hit the ark-la-tex again on Christmas day dropping up to six inches of freezing rain. Tens of thousands of trees and power lines, many already weakened by the ice from earlier in the month, broke or fell from the weight of the ice leaving thousands of residents without power for weeks. To make matter worse, an additional 3-6 inches of snow (7 in some areas of SW Arkansas) fell over the area on New Years Eve. Utility crews from 23 states were brought in to help restore power. Several utility workers were killed due to coming in contact with downed power lines hidden under the ice and snow."

There's nothing like going outside after a big ice storm, it just looks surreal. It's also frightening as a younger kid(as I was for two big storms) hearing all the popping going on outside. You think a tree is about to fall into your house.

[Texas Snowman]

I have no doubt that when it is all said and done, December 2013 will become a part of the hushed, revered, hallowed vernacular that we use in our winter weather conversations on this board.

Along with the winter of 1976/77; the 1979 ice storm; the December 1983 freeze; the December 1989 freeze; the South Texas White Christmas miracle in 2004; the North Texas/Oklahoma Christmas blizzard of 2009; the DFW 24-hour snowfall record of 2010; the Super Bowl Week snow events of 2011; and the 2012 North Texas White Christmas.

[TexasF6]

My local Met just did an Okee-dok on the seriousness of this event?!!! The airmass is COLDER is it not??? The models are even picking up on this right? I'm sorry but don't hem-and-haw me on the weather cause you are not paying attention!!!!! Where is PORTA when we need him?

[Portastorm]

My local Met just did an Okee-dok on the seriousness of this event?!!! The airmass is COLDER is it not??? The models are even picking up on this right? I'm sorry but don't hem-and-haw me on the weather cause you are not paying attention!!!!! Where is PORTA when we need him?

I'm right here, buddy! Yeah, I was STUNNED to awake and see that EWX has not issued any watches yet for what looks increasingly likely to be a winter storm of a several-day duration. We all know the front is moving faster than models thought and they (EWX) have even now introduced a "wintry mix" to the Thursday night forecast. IMO, they're making a big error by assuming a Special Weather Statement will suffice in alerting the public of what's ahead. And don't expect the OTA mets to go out ahead of the NWS with their forecasts. They won't.

[Kelarie]

from Shreveport NWS

...A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS WAKE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE COLD
SURFACE AIRMASS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...THIS COULD LEAD TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF NORTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE
RAIN AREA WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FALLING TEMPERATURES
COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA INTO
DEEP EAST TEXAS AS TEMPS FALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
RAIN PICKS BACK UP...SO MUCH OF THE CWA HAS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS SHOWING
BETTER THAN ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD...SO
IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...A MAJOR ICE STORM COULD
BE IN THE OFFING. THIS FAR OUT...WILL FOLLOW MOS NUMBERS...WHICH
BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DURING FOR DAY LIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

[opticsguy]

Just surfed the morning news in DFW. "Could see some ice", but the models they are showing are all rain at 7AM tomorrow. No mention of preps.

If you're going to panic, panic early. I split some firewood yesterday (live oak, easier said than done, but burns forever). I think I'll exchange my propane tank and find my Coleman stove.

[Tireman4]

HGX Morning AFD:

XUS64 KHGX 041131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THIS
COMING WEEK. THE MAIN THEMES WILL BE TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEEKEND FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TERM...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS RECENT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE LOWER-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. RELATIVELY HIGHER MARITIME DEW POINTS IN THE AVERAGE UPPER
60S OVER COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
INTERIOR FOG WILL BE AREAWIDE IN COVERAGE... HIGH BASED PACIFIC
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THICKER CIRRUS AND NEAR 5 KNOT SOUTHERLIES
WILL INHIBIT DENSE FOG. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
OVERNIGHT FOG...ALTHOUGH CALM CONDITIONS AND BREAKS IN THE CI DECK
MAY HAVE VARIOUS COMMUNITIES FALLING TO BELOW 1 SM IN VISIBILITY.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY EARLY DECEMBER STANDARDS...MORE LATE SPRING-LIKE
WEATHER IN LATE AUTUMN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FOGGY...MOIST
AND MILD MORNINGS IN THE 60S WILL WARM INTO THE MEAN UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE...
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. A SHALLOW...COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW A
THURSDAY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS BOUNDARY IS TIMED PASS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING THE CITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC-925MB FRONT...THE NAM STALLING IT NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH
THE GFS/ECMWF SLOWLY PUSHING IT OFF INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY STEADY...OR FALLING TEMPS...THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO THIS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...OVERCAST AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE REGION WILL FALL UNDER THE
BEST UPPER FORCING OF THE JET`S RRQ. AS OF NOW...DUE TO THE WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THIS SHALLOW COOL DOME (EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE UPON THE THETA SURFACE)...PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN COUNTY WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING (MAYBE SUNDAY MORNING?). ICE PELLET
FORMATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COLDER SURFACE EARLY SUNDAY
PROMOTING MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SCENARIO. THE COLD AIR
MASS GETS A REINFORCING COLD SHOT FRIDAY AND...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE NEAR-SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EITHER NORTHERN CWA ICE PELLETS (IF SUB FREEZING LAYER IS
DEEP ENOUGH) OR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT JET STREAK.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE KICKS IN SATURDAY...SUPPORTING MODEST LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-900MB WITH A VERY SHALLOW SUB-
FREEZING LAYER FROM AROUND 900MB TO THE SURFACE. WITHOUT CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE
FOR FROZEN PRECIP WILL REMAIN SLIGHT... THIS FACT MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME AND NOT ALLOW FOR SMALL DROPLET FREEZING. ANOTHER WRENCH
COULD BE THE AMOUNT (OR LACK THEREOF) OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. FRIDAY
NIGHT`S AIR MASS MAY END UP NOT BEING AS DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...AND WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SCANERIO...LIQUID
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIKELY WITH THAT SLIGHT RISK OF WET-BULBING THE
LOWER COLUMN OUT BELOW-FREEZING AND ULTIMATELY GENERATING A WINTRY MIX. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDE RANGE OF CIGS & VISBYS ACROSS THE AREA BUT GENERAL
TREND IS DOWNWARD TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STEEP LLVL INVERSION WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER IT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE AMENDED SOME TAFS TO A MORE
PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK WITH A DELAYED RISE TO MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
LATE MORNING & EARLY AFTN...AND MIGHT DO THE REMAINDER AS WELL FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN TRANSITION TO IFR LATER THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME DENSE SEA FOG ROLLING BACK IN TOWARD
SUNSET AT THE COAST. 47

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATE THURS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 47

[iorange55]

You know the situation is serious when Steve McCauley is the only local weatherman who seems to "get" how bad this might be.

[gboudx]

Texas Snowman, interesting story you posted a few pages back. We're gonna make our preps today.

We have DirecTV and I've read mixed reviews on spraying the dish with cooking spray to keep ice form accumulating. Has anyone ever tried this and have an experience to share? If ice forms on the dish, we'll be without TV until I can get it off, or it melts.

[srainhoutx]

I would keep a close eye on mid next week as a robust short wave crossesTexas next Tuesday into Wednesday. Cold air will be entrenched across the Region as that disturbance passes overhead.

The big issue for the Thursday into Sunday time frame appears to be the potential of off and on freezing drizzle/light freezing rain for Central and portions of SE Texas. After the 12Z guidance, I suspect we will see all sort of chatter and changes from the various NWS offices S of San Angelo and Ft Worth/Dallas. The intial front has cleared the AMA area and a second much stronger push of Arctic Air will arrive later today pushing the front further S. The Arctic air mass only extends up to about the 900 mb level, so it very shallow right now.

[Ntxw]

GFS has been trending to the Euro as well. Teens easily and heading towards single digits. This could be the coldest air we have seen in a long time, second reinforcing shot next Mon/Tues that really dips. You do not want to lose power and be in that for a long period.

As srain has just mentioned there are various disturbances that the models are not handling. There will be several rounds of winter precip the next 5-7 days

[Rgv20]

Look at this little blurp out of this morning's NWS in Brownsville...

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF TO OUR WEST A STRONG
OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS FOR SATURDAY. THERE
IS A SHORT WINDOW FOR SOME RAIN SLEET MIX EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER FALLING
BELOW FREEZING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND NO MENTION IN
THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

[orangeblood]

GFS has been trending to the Euro as well. Teens easily and heading towards single digits. This could be the coldest air we have seen in a long time, second reinforcing shot next Mon/Tues that really dips. You do not want to lose power and be in that for a long period.

As srain has just mentioned there are various disturbances that the models are not handling. There will be several rounds of winter precip the next 5-7 days

Very similar to the Euro except it goes over an entire week without getting above freezing in DFW, almost 180 hours which I believe is top 3 territory.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS mentioned similar weather as the 2011 Super Bowl with long duration cold and multiple wintry precip events. I remember a video of a girl ice skating on the road in her neighborhood.

[SnowintheFalls]

I was wondering about your opinions on the I44 corridor, specifically the Wichita Falls area. Local mets have been downplaying this system and I am curious if it is due to how the last event played out. They seem to think most will stay to the East of us. Seems like many areas have local mets downplaying the severity of this event, but is there anything behind their reluctance in the Wichita Falls area?

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[Portastorm]

Just surfed the morning news in DFW. "Could see some ice", but the models they are showing are all rain at 7AM tomorrow. No mention of preps.

If you're going to panic, panic early. I split some firewood yesterday (live oak, easier said than done, but burns forever). I think I'll exchange my propane tank and find my Coleman stove.

Good thinking ... and I like the saying "if you're going to panic, panic early."

Unfortunately there are probably going to be a number of people in the Metroplex area who will say "I didn't know this was coming" once it starts. And the lackadaisical approach by some of the on-air mets is helping perpetuate that. They'll all be in freakout tomorrow. That's my bet.

Perhaps equally as important and as orangeblood and Ntxw have been saying ... this is going to be a LONG duration event for DFW. Once it starts, it ain't going above freezing for days! People better be ready for that.

[Ntxw]

I was wondering about your opinions on the I44 corridor, specifically the Wichita Falls area. Local mets have been downplaying this system and I am curious if it is due to how the last event played out. They seem to think most will stay to the East of us. Seems like many areas have local mets downplaying the severity of this event, but is there anything behind their reluctance in the Wichita Falls area?

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

You are on the same boat as the rest of northern Texas. Just as cold if not colder than DFW, and potentially icy and snowy.

[orangeblood]

Not sure why the FW NWS office is thinking Tuesday afternoon is when we thaw out ? I'm not seeing until Thursday at the earliest. Both the Euro and GFS concur, what are they seeing that we're not ?

[PTPatrick]

For what it's worth it would appear that it will colder than anticipated in Denver. They kept saying highs teens today and low teens thurs/fri...Now the are hinting that it should stay steady or fall all day. It's 5 here now. ( was 60 at 12:00 yesterday and 23 by 4:00). Anyway. Low forecasts have been dropped. And they say if we plunge today or tomorrow night it will be difficult to recover and we may have a sub zero high tomorrow or Friday. The forcecast for low is -6 right now, but my guess us it would minus teens if we cant muster more than low single digits today. Clearing will be key. Bundle up Texas! It's cold to us Coloradans(schools delayed) , so you know it's not just any cold front.