Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Thats a lot of shallow cold air on the GFS. 570s dm is warm above but at the surface it is much colder than you would think for 570.

Not to mention the hefty Alaskan block in place. If they are remotely real, that is one of the most impressive alaskan rex blocks since 1983. Moral of the story is, looks can be deceiving more so than model output. You have to look closely.

[Ralph's Weather]

Thats a lot of shallow cold air on the GFS. 570s dm is warm above but at the surface it is much colder than you would think for 570.

Not to mention the hefty Alaskan block in place. Moral of the story is, looks can be deceiving more so than model output. You have to look closely.

Yep, the upper air pattern does not look cold but Arctic air tends to ooze down the Plains at the surface when blocking gives it a slight shove.

[Tireman4]

Thats a lot of shallow cold air on the GFS. 570s dm is warm above but at the surface it is much colder than you would think for 570.

Not to mention the hefty Alaskan block in place. If they are remotely real, that is one of the most impressive alaskan rex blocks since 1983. Moral of the story is, looks can be deceiving more so than model output. You have to look closely.

I wish our OCM's would understand this..ughh

[Ntxw]

Thats a lot of shallow cold air on the GFS. 570s dm is warm above but at the surface it is much colder than you would think for 570.

Not to mention the hefty Alaskan block in place. Moral of the story is, looks can be deceiving more so than model output. You have to look closely.

Yep, the upper air pattern does not look cold but Arctic air tends to ooze down the Plains at the surface when blocking gives it a slight shove.

What impresses me more than any surface cold, is that block in Alaska. To see it modeled (less than 300hrs) as a cold weather nut who loves charts and maps its heart warming . I wasnt born yet in 1983 so its a new thing sorta.

When I was doing analogs back in Nov ENSO climo shouted 83, but I wasn't sure if the cold would materialize in the Nhem. Then when it did, I wasn't sure if by mid December we would see a great block over Alaska like in 83. Even if it doesn't mean frigid down at the surface, I like the direction we are going

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Again, 12z GFS looks chilly for a lot of the run. Slowly taking away the crazy ridge that lived for 4-5 runs.

[TheProfessor]

Colder temps don't occur on the run till around the 14th or 15th, hours 240 and 252. I fly out on the evening of the 15th. This only goes out 192 hours so it missed what I was talking about. 12z GFS had a temp of 2 degrees at 12z(7AM my time) I'll be up by then as I'll ironically have my Atmo final to take that morning. Temps on Campus can also fall around a degree less than it does at the Downtown. The Airport(KCMH) is East of downtown and in this case the temperatures on the 12z GFS slightly warms as you get further east. Anyways 1-2 Fahrenheit would near zero in my diction. Of course it could end up 40 degrees as 240 hours is still very far out(Although signs are points of there at least being some kind of arctic outbreak).

Got it. Once beyond 180 I basically only look at the ensembles with the GFS as it is a train wreck at that range.

Ah, you miss out on a lot of things in the GFS fantasy range. Sometimes it's fun to look at what it spits out. Sometimes it delivers these perfect storms that are fun to look at that you know aren't likely to happen. But it's fun to daydream about. There was one run a year ago that had the perfect apps runner for me and had the storm bombing out at just the right moment dropping 40 inches of snow. I knew it wasn't going to happen, but it was fun to see the storm occur. It was also very impressive because things like that don't typically happen on the parent run, usually it's an individual ensemble member that you will see go crazy.

[Portastorm]

Conversely, the 12z GFS run takes away a freeze for the Austin area Friday morning. The 0z Euro did the same. We've known historically that the GFS has trouble with Arctic airmasses ... but when King Euro is in agreement ... makes me wonder. Will be watching today's 12z Euro with great interest.

[Ralph's Weather]

Conversely, the 12z GFS run takes away a freeze for the Austin area Friday morning. The 0z Euro did the same. We've known historically that the GFS has trouble with Arctic airmasses ... but when King Euro is in agreement ... makes me wonder. Will be watching today's 12z Euro with great interest.

Maybe but it is difficult to imagine how this pattern would keep Central Texas above 32 though I guess if the surface high does stay far enough north then maybe the breeze will keep it right around freezing. That is a very cold surface high marching down the Plains right now the only thing missing is snow cover in the Southern Plains.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We may have to really enjoy our brief Arctic airmass later this week. Beyond seven days, both the EPS and GEFS build that southwestern ridge over us which is not a good thing if you want/like anomalously cold weather in Texas. When you've got both major ensembles showing that consistently ... you've got take pause.

Ntx, you took the post right off my finger tips. I have been looking at the re-analysis since october for '83http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ and the HIGH that is setting up near mexico now is nearly identical. Eventually, that high connected with the Aleutian ridge and created the monster at the end of Dec.

This weekends blast wont give us freezing temps here in SE Tx since the upper air pattern isnt there, was afraid of that. Is the MJO in our favor right now? It seems when there is a low east of hawaii, not a high, look for an arctic blast. I remember JB mentioning this a long time ago too.

[toto]

Conversely, the 12z GFS run takes away a freeze for the Austin area Friday morning. The 0z Euro did the same. We've known historically that the GFS has trouble with Arctic airmasses ... but when King Euro is in agreement ... makes me wonder. Will be watching today's 12z Euro with great interest.

Please post a link to that Euro model.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, west of the rockies, in the SW they never felt a thing in 1983 or 1989 bc of that ridge. The gradient was intense in New Mexico. One side of the that state was balmy while the other tundra because the upper pattern was not favorable

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[aggiecutter]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Starting to get a handle on some of the dynamics at play. If you look at the 500MB chart of the N pacific, you can see Eastern Siberia is persistent in having an ULL which is helping pump this Alaskan Ridge. The ULL over Siberia i believe is partially being fueled by the brutally cold, dense air. Maybe this is an example of the importance of the SAI for a cold winter.

The consistency of the GFS creating this ridge is impressive. Call me crazy, but if this keeps up, were going to have a motherload of arctic air coming down at some point. At some point, it will all come together if the Ridge keeps providing opportunities. I was skeptical about this weeks arctic air due to the upper air pattern. I understand the air finds its way down by brute force but as our beloved Orange says, watch the upper air pattern.

With that said, if you look in '83, the upper air patter looks sort of similar, except eventually the trough deepened slightly, but leading up to the outbreak, it was quite zonal. In fact, there were higher heights off the coast of mexico, our nemesis, just like predicted by the GFS The difference was i believe that was a 1062 MB high vs a 1051 MB high what we have now.

Feel free to poke holes or educate me on anything im missing fellas.

Again this is not a forecast. Im a financial manager first, not a weather man

And no i didnt buy nat gas like i planned to all fall

[Ralph's Weather]

And we are still in early Dec right now. The height of the 83 outbreak came right before Christmas so more time for the snowpack to build on the Plains to help the surface high build and to prevent as much modification of the cold. If the Mexican and Alaskan ridges join later this month then we will be in the icebox.

[Ntxw]

Starting to get a handle on some of the dynamics at play. If you look at the 500MB chart of the N pacific, you can see Eastern Siberia is persistent in having an ULL which is helping pump this Alaskan Ridge. The ULL over Siberia i believe is partially being fueled by the brutally cold, dense air. Maybe this is an example of the importance of the SAI for a cold winter.

The consistency of the GFS creating this ridge is impressive. Call me crazy, but if this keeps up, were going to have a motherload of arctic air coming down at some point. At some point, it will all come together if the Ridge keeps providing opportunities. I was skeptical about this weeks arctic air due to the upper air pattern. I understand the air finds its way down by brute force but as our beloved Orange says, watch the upper air pattern.

With that said, if you look in '83, the upper air patter looks sort of similar, except eventually the trough deepened slightly, but leading up to the outbreak, it was quite zonal. In fact, there were higher heights off the coast of mexico, our nemesis, just like predicted by the GFS The difference was i believe that was a 1062 MB high vs a 1051 MB high what we have now.

Feel free to poke holes or educate me on anything im missing fellas.

Again this is not a forecast. Im a financial manager first, not a weather man

And no i didnt buy nat gas like i planned to all fall

People had the wrong idea about this first outbreak. It is behaving as expected, it is the first outbreak and should be colder than what we had last season. The cold is not result of the pattern being good, it is a result of the WPO dumping cold air over our side of the globe. I kept saying back in November if we were to follow the 1983 analog it was mid month when it came down and there was a lesser event to start December.

Now folks should not take that we will see a repeat of 1983 but that it has gotten cold before in a similar set up. There are opportunities

[Portastorm]

Conversely, the 12z GFS run takes away a freeze for the Austin area Friday morning. The 0z Euro did the same. We've known historically that the GFS has trouble with Arctic airmasses ... but when King Euro is in agreement ... makes me wonder. Will be watching today's 12z Euro with great interest.

Please post a link to that Euro model.

Unfortunately I cannot do that due to proprietary reasons. I was looking at the Euro meteograms on the paid WeatherBell site.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Conversely, the 12z GFS run takes away a freeze for the Austin area Friday morning. The 0z Euro did the same. We've known historically that the GFS has trouble with Arctic airmasses ... but when King Euro is in agreement ... makes me wonder. Will be watching today's 12z Euro with great interest.

Please post a link to that Euro model.

Unfortunately I cannot do that due to proprietary reasons. I was looking at the Euro meteograms on the paid WeatherBell site.

Welllllllll, we're waiting!

[Portastorm]

I just looked at the 12z Euro and it now has Friday AM temps around 37 degrees for Austin. Disturbing trend for me, especially when I've been telling folks this is likely the coldest air in two years. With both models trending in the warmer direction ... kinda hard to throw it out. Ugh.

[hriverajr]

I just looked at the 12z Euro and it now has Friday AM temps around 37 degrees for Austin. Disturbing trend for me, especially when I've been telling folks this is likely the coldest air in two years. With both models trending in the warmer direction ... kinda hard to throw it out. Ugh.

How many times has promise turned into disappointment? More than I can count the last x number of winters.