Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[jasons2k]

Hmm, are you sure those sago palms are dead as in dead DEAD, or just defoliated? They will usually respout new leaves around May if they've been burned. The palms (real ones) also look pretty crispy out from Fort Stockton to El Paso, but they'll be fine, they usually recover from dry cold unless it's horribly extreme.

And I'm not so sure about that trick of soaking a towel with water to save a sago, to keep it at 32F you would have to be continually putting water on it. Once the water turns to ice the temperature will fall close to the ambient air temperature (that's why citrus growers have to leave the sprinklers on all night if they want to save their trees by irrigation). I would think you'd have better luck using something like insulation.

No, they are completely toasted. The closest reporting station to Allen is McKinney, which got down to 7 degrees in December. Sagos are hardy to about 18 degrees.

[gboudx]

Was it cloudy in Houston the night we got the single/low teens here in Dallas? Up here we had ideal conditions for maximum radiational cooling.

Edit: BTW if this arctic air verifies, this thread will easily approach 50 pages soon. Think it's time for a new one as we progress along?

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! what a day it has been today. It started out mild with little wind, but right now we are cloudy, windy and only in the lower 50s. Feels like winter is already returning. The funny thing it that the forecast for today was partly cloudy and in the upper 60s. Tonight the forecast is 40...which translates into 35-38 at my house.

EDIT: just realized (by reports) that we actually DID hit 70 earlier. Wow...large temp. drop we have had.

[jasons2k]

wow! what a day it has been today. It started out mild with little wind, but right now we are cloudy, windy and only in the lower 50s. Feels like winter is already returning. The funny thing it that the forecast for today was partly cloudy and in the upper 60s. Tonight the forecast is 40...which translates into 35-38 at my house.

EDIT: just realized (by reports) that we actually DID hit 70 earlier. Wow...large temp. drop we have had.

Yeah, I read the paper on the front porch this morning and it was very mild and pleasant outside. I just went out again and quickly came back inside, it's not pleasant anymore.

[southerngale]

Was it cloudy in Houston the night we got the single/low teens here in Dallas? Up here we had ideal conditions for maximum radiational cooling.

Edit: BTW if this arctic air verifies, this thread will easily approach 50 pages soon. Think it's time for a new one as we progress along?

What? And take this one out of the running for longest thread ever?!


j/k - I just start at the end and read what I've missed so it doesn't matter to me.

[Portastorm]

Climate Prediction Center really puts us into the deep freeze in days 8-14. Check out the core center area of the coldest temps ...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/814day/

[jasons2k]

Southerngale, I agree, I just go to the last page and read backwards as needed. Less threads to keep track of

I remember we had some debates during the tropical season about # of threads, and sure enough during Katrina & Rita, there were so many threads going I almost gave up.

[Tyler]

Lets keep this thread going. It will be cool at the end of winter to go back and read all the busted/good forecasts that were presented here.

[Tyler]

Climate Prediction Center really puts us into the deep freeze in days 8-14. Check out the core center area of the coldest temps ...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/814day/

The question still remains, will this be a February to remember?

[richtrav]

JS

We had many sagos in San Antonio pull through the single digits in 1989, they didn't flush out until late spring though. Unless the trunk has turned to mush (if they do have a trunk) they may pull through yet. That was certainly much colder than in-town Dallas though

[Portastorm]

This from Fort Worth NWS:

IN THE LONG RUN...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BY MID/LATE FEBRUARY. #26

Westerly flow? Bwaahhahahahaha ... What the heck are they smoking up there? Hey guys, take a look at your own government CPC forecast. Hello? Hello? Anyone there ...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This from Fort Worth NWS:

IN THE LONG RUN...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BY MID/LATE FEBRUARY. #26

Westerly flow? Bwaahhahahahaha ... What the heck are they smoking up there? Hey guys, take a look at your own government CPC forecast. Hello? Hello? Anyone there ...

The only Texas NWS office I've seen this Afternoon so far talk about that pattern change has been Amarillo. All of the other offices are sharing something .

The were the same way before the early December mini cold snap. The backtracking is going to be one to keep of the archives.

[jasons2k]

richtrav - thanks for the info! Yes, I have seen variability compared to what the posted hardiness is. I'll see how things look next time I go visit the fam up in the DFW area.

I've noticed the urban heat island effect has become more influential in Dallas and here in Houston as the metro area continues to spread out. Dallas Love is always significantly warmer than DFW and other stations.

Here in Houston, supposedly it got down to 22 a couple of years ago at Bush. I work by the Galleria (in town) and there are several zone 10 plants such as Scheffler Trees and Norfolk Pines that look 10+ years old and are quite healthy. Also, all the bananas by my office are still green - no frost or freeze damage yet.

[Tyler]

This from Fort Worth NWS:

IN THE LONG RUN...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BY MID/LATE FEBRUARY. #26

Westerly flow? Bwaahhahahahaha ... What the heck are they smoking up there? Hey guys, take a look at your own government CPC forecast. Hello? Hello? Anyone there ...

ATTENTION DFW: The GFS is crap beyond 240 hours. Westerly flow is not going to undercut the west coast ridge. If anything, the ridge will continue to strengthen. OMG, I can't believe some of these AFD's these offices put out. Your right Portastorm, the CPC map means nothing to them?

There will be many horribly busted forecasts with this type of pattern. Until we get closer to late next week, we will continue to hear these really wierd AFD's...

[Johnny]

So what is JB saying as of late?

I'll be honest with you, this cold front today took me by surprise. It's 53 degrees outside with gusts up to 24 mph here in central Montgomery County. I just wore a t-shirt into the office today. lol

I agree on keeping this thread going. It's alot easiar to keep up with.

[Portastorm]

I agree, CC and Tyler. Totally!

You know, I wouldn't post anything but when they write garbage like this, it drives me nuts!

I can understand the concerns raised by the pro mets here and guys like "jschlitz" when they say "why write about something 7 days away when so much can change." Fine, I'm down with that ... but when you do go ahead and write something in the forecast discussion and it clearly goes against most conventional thinking from the tools they use, it makes me wonder what they're on about. The 12z ensembles do relax the upper flow some later in February ... but until then, it's clear we are talking about a flow from the polar regions into the main part of the U.S.

If they're going to say anything, why not say "outlook past 7 days has potential for much colder but still too far away to certain" ?

[Tyler]

This from Fort Worth NWS:

IN THE LONG RUN...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BY MID/LATE FEBRUARY. #26

Westerly flow? Bwaahhahahahaha ... What the heck are they smoking up there? Hey guys, take a look at your own government CPC forecast. Hello? Hello? Anyone there ...

The only Texas NWS office I've seen this Afternoon so far talk about that pattern change has been Amarillo. All of the other offices are sharing something .

The were the same way before the early December mini cold snap. The backtracking is going to be one to keep of the archives.

The NWS here in Houston had forecasted highs in the mid 40's THE DAY BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT. We never reached 40. In fact, our high was 37 (record low max). It was sad.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This from Fort Worth NWS:

IN THE LONG RUN...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BY MID/LATE FEBRUARY. #26

Westerly flow? Bwaahhahahahaha ... What the heck are they smoking up there? Hey guys, take a look at your own government CPC forecast. Hello? Hello? Anyone there ...

The only Texas NWS office I've seen this Afternoon so far talk about that pattern change has been Amarillo. All of the other offices are sharing something .

The were the same way before the early December mini cold snap. The backtracking is going to be one to keep of the archives.

The NWS here in Houston had forecasted highs in the mid 40's THE DAY BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT. We never reached 40. In fact, our high was 37 (record low max). It was sad.

Yeah..the NWS holds back so much. They are so afraid that if they forecast cold that they'll be wrong...and then they end up being wrong because the didn't forecast cold. Another thing that bothers me is that if the NWS says it...the local TV mets believe it. Im sure they will say tonight that a "slight" change is on the way, but nothing major. Everybody will be really surprised when all of the sudden the high doesn't get above 40 on a day which two days prior the NWS had forecast to be 70.

[jasons2k]

This from Fort Worth NWS:

IN THE LONG RUN...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BY MID/LATE FEBRUARY. #26

Westerly flow? Bwaahhahahahaha ... What the heck are they smoking up there? Hey guys, take a look at your own government CPC forecast. Hello? Hello? Anyone there ...

ATTENTION DFW: The GFS is crap beyond 240 hours. Westerly flow is not going to undercut the west coast ridge. If anything, the ridge will continue to strengthen. OMG, I can't believe some of these AFD's these offices put out. Your right Portastorm, the CPC map means nothing to them?

There will be many horribly busted forecasts with this type of pattern. Until we get closer to late next week, we will continue to hear these really wierd AFD's...

Hey guys, this is what I was referring to last week. Don't be so quick to trash the NWS and their discussions. Otherwise you might be eating crow.

[Tyler]

But is the conservative way really the way to go? Forecasts are going to bust horribly next week becuase all these offices are scared of cold air. I'm not trashing the NWS, I'm just a little confused. I mean, seriously, the DFW AFD makes no sense.

I should just shut up now though. They work hard for the public and do a good job at what they do, I'm just a guy who likes to complain alot...