#5810 Postby citymgr » Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:36 pm
Latest forecast from LCRA
A dangerous, bitterly cold arctic air mass continues to spread into Texas from the Plains States, bringing some of the coldest air our region has seen in a number of years. Official low temperatures this morning included 18 degrees at Austin-Camp Mabry, 17 degrees at Austin-Bergstrom, 19 degrees at San Antonio, 19 degrees at College Station, 21 degrees at Houston Intercontinental, 16 degrees at Temple, 10 degrees at Brownwood and 23 degrees at Palacios.
According to LCRA’s Hydromet, low temperatures were between 7 and 10 degrees across the northern Hill Country, in the lower teens across much of the rest of the Hill Country and the middle and upper teens across Central Texas. Temperatures in the upper teens were observed as far south as the Interstate 10 corridor. South of I-10, lows were generally between 19 and 22 degrees.
Morning satellite images show widespread clouds covering much of West, Central and South Texas. There were some breaks in the clouds noted across East and southeast Texas. Today’s clouds are the result of some mid-level moisture and weak atmospheric lift spreading northeast out of Mexico. Unfortunately, it looks like a mostly cloudy sky will continue across the area for much of the day and this will limit the amount of warming. Today, I expect the temperature to stay below freezing across the Hill Country and most if not all of Central Texas. And this period of temperatures below freezing may continue through tomorrow as well. Today’s high temperatures will include the low 20s across most of the Hill Country, the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas and the low 30s across the coastal plains region. North winds of 10-20 mph look to continue into this evening, causing dangerously low wind chill readings.
The sky will be mostly cloudy tonight and temperatures will again be very cold. Lows Thursday morning should be very similar to what we saw earlier this morning. Upper single digits to low teens across the northern and western Hill Country, low teens across the rest of Hill Country, middle to upper teens across Central Texas and the upper teens to low 20s across the coastal plains region.
Thursday’s weather will again be very cold while widespread clouds continue across most of the region. High temperatures will be about the same to just a tad higher than today’s readings. Highs will include the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s to 30 degrees across Central Texas and the low to mid 30s across the coastal plains region.
By Thursday afternoon, our attention will then turn to the next wave of low pressure that has tracked south across the Rockies into northern Mexico. This system is expected to cause a period of wintery weather across parts of Central Texas and the coastal plains region Thursday night into Friday morning. Today’s forecast models have trended toward a bit stronger confidence in this wintery forecast. With this particular system, the area most likely to be impacted will be the eastern half of Central Texas and the coastal plains region. The wave of low pressure over Mexico is forecast to begin moving northeast toward Texas by Thursday evening, pulling moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. Areas to the south of Interstate 10 could begin to see the development of some light freezing rain, sleet or even snow flurries by late Thursday afternoon. A mixture of sleet and snow looks to expand in coverage across the coastal plains region Thursday evening and Thursday night. Light snow is also expected to develop further north into parts of Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country Thursday night. This period of snow is expected to continue into Friday morning, with the activity ending from west to east late morning into the early afternoon hours.
Today’s forecast data indicates the coastal plains region could see ice accumulations to near 1/10th inch and snowfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches between Thursday night and midday Friday. Further inland, we could see snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches from southeast of Austin to near La Grange. In the Austin area and along the Interstate 35 corridor, there is the potential for snowfall accumulations of one half to three quarters inch. Across the eastern Hill Country, it appears there will just be a light dusting of snow.
All of the snowfall should end around midday Friday, followed by clearing, scattered sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures in the afternoon. I expect readings to rise into the mid and upper 30s. But freezing temperatures will return Friday night. Lows Saturday morning will include the low 20s Hill Country, mid 20s Central Texas and low to mid 20s coastal plains region.
Mostly sunny and milder weather will develop this weekend as the cold area of high pressure finally begins moving off to the east. High temperatures Saturday will be in the low and mid 50s, warming to near 60-62 degrees on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will be mostly in the low 30s. But don’t think this is the end of the cold weather. Today’s forecast solutions continue to indicate another blast of cold air will arrive late next Monday night/early Tuesday. Dry but cold weather is expected for most of next week. However, the magnitude of this next batch of cold air is not expected to be quite as cold as what we are experiencing this week.
Bob
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