Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #5821 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue May 31, 2005 12:58 am

Look at this onshore flow for Wednesday.

http://grads.iges.org/pix/eta2.48hr.png

The thing that is so majestic is how far north the isobars extend. That will tap into some very cool air in the northern Gulf of Alaska. This looks VERY cold to me.

TT-SEA · #5822 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 1:01 am

You are being overly-dramatic.

It takes SOLID cloud cover with heavy rain to have a high in the low 50's in June.

Here is an example...

June 6, 2004...

Predicted for 6/1/05...

Do you know what the high was at Sea-Tac on 6/6/04?? It was 64 degrees. And it rained... and there was thunderstorms. Still it was 64 degrees.

snow_wizzard · #5823 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue May 31, 2005 1:21 am

We shall see. If we get a C zone, with these numbers it will be quite cool. The upper level flow pattern is going to be highly irregular, considering the surface pattern (surprise, suprise), so I am not certain. Strong onshore flow with a moist northerly flow aloft could produce heavy cloud cover and frequent showers. All I can say is don't be surprised if we have a very cool high temp this week.

andycottle · #5824 Postby **andycottle** » Tue May 31, 2005 1:27 am

Hey Chris...that`s ok. Your still finding your way around here.

As for the local mets here....in general, they all have there way of telling the weather. I like Jeff Renner and Rich Mariot on King5. They do a pretty good job of telling the weather and are more detailed in the forecast.

-- Andy

TT-SEA · #5825 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 1:27 am

It would have to be Wednesday... and there will some sun that day.

Thursday through Sunday are not candidates for a super cold day.

Monday of next week could be cooler.

Here is the latest ECMWF for Thursday (much quieter than the GFS)...

andycottle · #5826 Postby **andycottle** » Tue May 31, 2005 1:32 am

Good night all! See ya in the morning.

snow_wizzard · #5827 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue May 31, 2005 1:38 am

TT...You are certainly right about last year having some cold setups that did not deliver the goods. I am still trying to figure that one out. We had a setup in May of last year that should have put us 10 degrees below normal, and it didn't get cool at all. That was a very odd thing about last year. This year, the cold patterns are finally beginning to deliver some cold temps. I will be very interested to see how the next 10 days play out!

andycottle · #5828 Postby **andycottle** » Tue May 31, 2005 9:43 am

Good morning everyone. Looks like we are getting a little light rain here this morning, but nothing measureable as of yet. Current temp at 7:49a.m is 52 with humidity 100%. -- Andy

TT-SEA · #5829 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 3:37 pm

Wow... the GFS and the ETA came in this morning MUCH weaker and less dramatic with the system tonight and tomorrow.

Looks like some light showers and a fairly diffuse and weak PSCZ tomorrow. Thursday and Friday should be pretty nice with a few showers and some sun. 850mb temperatures are warmer in this morning's runs as well. Should not be any dramatic cold weather.

This is what the ECMWF and the UKMET have been saying all along.

snow_wizzard · #5830 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue May 31, 2005 6:58 pm

Wow! The radar is really lighting up with some nice reds and oranges. Not so weak after all. That system slated for next week looks amazing. Can we all say THUNDERSTORMS?! :eek:

andycottle · #5831 Postby **andycottle** » Tue May 31, 2005 7:25 pm

Thunderstorms for next week! I`m with snow wizzard!

What a soaker this afternoon was....WOW! Rain came down so hard that if you stood outside in it, you would be completely soaked head to tow in less than a minute. Also heard some nice and moderately loud rumbles of thunder shortly before 4:30pm this afternoon. Didn`t see any lightning though. Did see some rather and very dark looking storm clouds just before coming home and on my way home also. There was so much of wind, just good rumbles of thunder and heavy rain! As stated...quite a soaker! Oh and BTW.....at one point this afternoon, it was raining .79"inch/hour rate. And for a rain total far today makes .51" of precip!

-- Andy
King-142 Seattle NWS weather Spotter

TT-SEA · #5832 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 7:28 pm

Dude... the predicted 500mb maps are much weaker. We have a nice PSCZ right now though.

The rest of the week looks fairly normal. Showers... sun... temperatures in the 60's.

The weekend system rotates to our west and then south. In the past... this pattern has lead to a couple warm days ahead of the trough. It could be close to 70 degrees on Saturday with southerly flow. And the predicted rainfall totals are not that amazing for Sunday and Monday.

How about that 64 degrees at Sea-Tac today!! Under clouds and rain.

Not what you would have thought with these 850mb temperatures...

snow_wizzard · #5833 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue May 31, 2005 7:35 pm

TT...I think you will be surprised tomorrow. The ETA is showing good rainfall, we will have northerly flow alfot and strong onshore flow. The northerly flow aloft is key in keeping clearing at a bare minimum. I could be wrong, but we will see.

I notice you are not trying to pour water on next week (pardon the pun). There is no denying that is going to be something special. Even the ECMWF is showing 850mb temps of 0 on two days.

By the way...Brennan checked in with .31 today, so it's not only the C Zone that had very respectable precip amounts!

TT-SEA · #5834 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 7:45 pm

Tomorrow will feature showers and sun and a high around 60 degrees.

The showers will be weaker than today as 500mb heights will rise from 554DM to 562DM and the trough will be way east of us.

Right now the trough is overhead.

TT-SEA · #5835 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 7:48 pm

Here is another example.

The high on this day (6/2/99) was 61 degrees with partly cloudy skies.

TT-SEA · #5836 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 7:51 pm

That is 850mb temperatures BELOW zero just to our west. Actually around zero over Seattle.

A strong June sun changes the 850mb / surface temperature formula.

We can get into the 60's even with 850mb temperatures below zero.

It takes solid cloud cover at many levels and constant all day rain to thwart the June sun.

The next week looks active...but there will be lots of sun breaks. Friday and Saturday could be normal or even above norma.

AnthonyC · #5837 Postby **AnthonyC** » Tue May 31, 2005 8:16 pm

A very interesting afternoon here in Mukilteo. A good PSCZ formed and we had lightning/thunder along with a downpour that produced over an inch of rain.

Looking at latest satellite pics, a trough is currently over our region...but nothing too significant. Snow_Wizzard, you are being too dramatic with this "cold" weather...remember, it's the beginning of JUNE...not the beginning of MARCH. 500 mb heights could be at 528 yet that would still crack 55F+ in June because of the high sun angle. You can't compare records from the winter to the summer...they don't equate.

As for the rest of the week, a boring June pattern. A few showers, sunbreaks and seasonal temperatures...but don't expect any heatwaves in the short term.

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #5838 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue May 31, 2005 9:54 pm

Hey guys...with all do respect I do not what June is and is not capable of! I can find examples of highs below 55 in June with 850mb temps around 4. It all has to do with how strong the onshore flow and whether the clouds can stay solid all day. I am telling you that conditions similar to what we will have tomorrow can and have produced highs well below normal this time of year. Remember, this is not a normal year. Throw the rule book out the window. That goes for me and everyone else.

Anthony...how can you say that over an inch of rain in late May is nothing impressive. What do you guys expect this time of year?

By the way, if tomorrow does not end up as cool as I am expecting, I will admit I was wrong, but if it is as cool as I think is possible, I will be laughing myself silly! I am willing to go out on a limb at times. I like to keep it fun! It can and will again get as cool as what I have been saying. You don't think I know what is possible?

TT-SEA · #5839 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 10:00 pm

Tomorrow will not be so cold.

The flow is northwesterly... that will produce sunshine at times over the metro area. And 500mb heights rise to almost 564DM. Come on.

Thursday will be really nice and Friday will be spectacular.

The latest ETA has 500mb heights close to 570DM with mostly sunny skies and 850mb temperatures of 9C on Friday.

My predicted Sea-Tac highs...

Wednesday - 60
Thursday - 65
Friday - 70 (maybe even slightly warmer)

TT-SEA · #5840 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 31, 2005 10:06 pm

Please check out the 1-hour precip loop on the ETA MM5 for tomorrow.

Its out through 24 hours.

A VERY weak PSCZ over I-90 and thats it. To say that it has DRAMATICALLY changed from previous runs is an understatement!!

Lots of sun on that run as well.

60 degrees may be low for tomorrow. You are out to lunch on this one. You are not keeping up with the models unbelievable weakening of this system. You are still remembering old runs.

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