Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
So just like that DFW area might be back in business? I20 and points north.........
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re:
txagwxman wrote:To the heck the models...look at water vapor...they are probably underestimating the moisture over Mexico...moisture won't be a problem.
Very good point. Off to bed for me, the morning shift starts early.
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W. Grant Dade
Good Morning East Texas/Midday Meteorologist
KLTV 7 Tyler, TX
Good Morning East Texas/Midday Meteorologist
KLTV 7 Tyler, TX
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Portastorm
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Re: Re:
wgdade wrote:txagwxman wrote:To the heck the models...look at water vapor...they are probably underestimating the moisture over Mexico...moisture won't be a problem.
Very good point. Off to bed for me, the morning shift starts early.
I'll trade you guys up north some moisture and you send me some cold air, ok?!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
HockeyTx82 wrote:So just like that DFW area might be back in business? I20 and points north.........
It's a good trend yes, only one run on one model. Lets try and keep the others going in the same direction. Also would like for temps to be colder just in case
Deal Portastorm! Take all the cold you want.
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srainhoutx
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Re: Re:
Portastorm wrote:wgdade wrote:txagwxman wrote:To the heck the models...look at water vapor...they are probably underestimating the moisture over Mexico...moisture won't be a problem.
Very good point. Off to bed for me, the morning shift starts early.
I'll trade you guys up north some moisture and you send me some cold air, ok?!
Look whats heading S from Canada.
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I was going to mention that srain. Disturbance coming down eastern slopes in previous runs had it further north and east, now pushing it back and stronger in the red river valley. Amazing how quickly things can change lol! That feature then becomes the dominant further east pulling the storm up from the gulf.
Last edited by Ntxw on Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
DFW FOX 4 just now mentioned the lastest models, what we are talking about, showing a better snow chance for DFW area.
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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PineyWoods
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Any chance that the vertical profile for the Tyler area is going to be cold enough for snow during this Wed - Fri event?
My understanding is the further south the low tracks is the less precip that we get here but the colder the vertical profile is. The further north the low tracks the more precip but less colder air aloft, is that basically it or do I need more studying?
My understanding is the further south the low tracks is the less precip that we get here but the colder the vertical profile is. The further north the low tracks the more precip but less colder air aloft, is that basically it or do I need more studying?
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HockeyTx82
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Re:
Turtle wrote:Some of the ArkLaTex is under a Special Weather Statement for possible wintry conditions later this week.
Hmmm..... So I guess the storm will pass right over DFW with nothing then dump off to the east. Seems to be what our NWS is thinking at the current time.
We are like the only spot with nothing regarding this upcoming storm...... http://www.weather.gov/
What is going on?
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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TeamPlayersBlue
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I agree with the moisture guys. Never underestimate the Sub tropical Jet. It's already kicking now and as it said in a previous post, it's strengthening that low in Cali as we speak
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TeamPlayersBlue
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
824 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
A
824 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
...WINTRY WEATHER COULD IMPACT THE FOUR STATE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
TEXAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
EVEN THOUGH THE WEATHER EVENT IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...THE PRECPITATION COULD START
OUT MIXED WITH OR AS SLEET. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY.
WINTER WEATHER EVENTS IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ARE VERY
TRICKY...AT BEST...TO FORECAST. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AS WELL AS
ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A CHANGE IN THE
LOWS POSITION OF JUST ONE HUNDRED MILES WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION AND TYPE OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
RESIDENTS AND PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WINTRY WEATHER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
824 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
A
824 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
...WINTRY WEATHER COULD IMPACT THE FOUR STATE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
TEXAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
EVEN THOUGH THE WEATHER EVENT IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...THE PRECPITATION COULD START
OUT MIXED WITH OR AS SLEET. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY.
WINTER WEATHER EVENTS IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ARE VERY
TRICKY...AT BEST...TO FORECAST. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AS WELL AS
ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A CHANGE IN THE
LOWS POSITION OF JUST ONE HUNDRED MILES WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION AND TYPE OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
RESIDENTS AND PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WINTRY WEATHER.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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msstateguy83
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
imo i expect major event from i-20 north to the redriver possibly even effecting far
southern ok... be interesting to see what the gfs says in a few...
southern ok... be interesting to see what the gfs says in a few...
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orangeblood
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Re: Re:
HockeyTx82 wrote:Turtle wrote:Some of the ArkLaTex is under a Special Weather Statement for possible wintry conditions later this week.
Hmmm..... So I guess the storm will pass right over DFW with nothing then dump off to the east. Seems to be what our NWS is thinking at the current time.
We are like the only spot with nothing regarding this upcoming storm...... http://www.weather.gov/
What is going on?
I have no idea HockeyTx82. Does anyone know who holds them accountable? Just another example of our tax money being put to good use.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
msstateguy83 wrote:imo i expect major event from i-20 north to the redriver possibly even effecting far
southern ok... be interesting to see what the gfs says in a few...
Okay so you ALWAYS put out maps showing what you "think" may happen...with totals and everything. I love to see those when you post them. Why NO maps now???? Come on gimmie one.....please
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Re: Re:
orangeblood wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:Turtle wrote:Some of the ArkLaTex is under a Special Weather Statement for possible wintry conditions later this week.
Hmmm..... So I guess the storm will pass right over DFW with nothing then dump off to the east. Seems to be what our NWS is thinking at the current time.
We are like the only spot with nothing regarding this upcoming storm...... http://www.weather.gov/
What is going on?
I have no idea HockeyTx82. Does anyone know who holds them accountable? Just another example of our tax money being put to good use.
they have 1-2 inches in their hazardous product and in the forecast. temperatures are forecasted to be near or above freezing so their will be no travel impacts. what do you want them to do? say all hell is going to break loose when no computer model currently says it will?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
BTW...ive been lurking for awhile and just registered for an account. I like this site...good info from everyone!
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