Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txtiff]

i totally disagree with oun's statement on that even b/c i think as far north as the redriver now has the chance of
mod-heavy accumulations... **including oun's sw forecast zone of northwestern tx**


edit: no graphic yet but i would go 4-5 up along the red river and 6-8 with poss isol amts of 9" near the metroplex....

No Graphic YET....YET...So there will be a graphic!!! I will be waiting with baited breath..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

30 degrees here in Nacogdoches Dewpoint 16 degrees now

[RNGR]

DFW is forecasting snow.. im not sure why people are saying they havent mentioned it. Im sure the exact accumulations will be worked out tomorrow and a statement will be issued.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=32.7872745269555&lon=-96.78268432617187&site=fwd&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

It was just snow earlier today, now it's rain/snow.

because the temps are in question.

[bktkck]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
925 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MID-AMERICA CONTINUES TO BRING
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE ONLY
WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE NEAR OUR REGION IS SOME CIRRUS HEADING
OUR WAY FROM TEXAS. IN GENERAL...THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

WITH THIS UPDATE...I HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS BASED UPON OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LOCAL DIURNAL CURVE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN SOME REDUCTION IN FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST
PLACES. SKY COVER AND WIND GRIDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON
OBSERVED TRENDS.

REGARDING THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
IN ALL HONESTY...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THERE ARE JUST AS MANY SOLUTIONS AS THERE ARE MODELS... OR
SO IT SEEMS. THE 10/0000 UTC NAM HAS JUST ARRIVED...AND APPEARS TO
BE TRENDING WETTER THAN EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS.

THE GUT FEELING OF THE EVENING SHIFT CREW IS THAT THE DAYTIME RUNS
OF THE GFS WERE ANOMALOUS IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR ITERATIONS. BY
LOOKING AT THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NAM...MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SLEET...THEN CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WET BULB. THE TIMING OF THIS IS TRICKY AT
BEST TO SAY THE LEAST. TIME WILL TELL...AND WE WILL SEE. I HAVE
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME CHANGES MAY
BE MADE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON ADDITIONAL MODEL
INFORMATION YET TO ARRIVE IN THE COMPUTER SYSTEM.

IN THE MEANTIME...I HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STAY TUNED.

[HockeyTx82]

Delkus just did it again, mention everything to CYA. He even said the models are trending warmer.......

[iorange55]

I don't get how they are trending warmer the 0z's are way better than anything the GFS was showing earlier today.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
824 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER SE TX TONIGHT RESULTING IN COOL/DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
LOW ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES (MOSTLY UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S) WITH
TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON COOLING THESE AREAS. NEAR THE COAST DEWPOINTS ARE
HIGHER SO TEMPS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE MORE. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT OVER MOST INLAND AREAS. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR ALL BUT METRO HOUSTON AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

[iorange55]

This sucks regarding the DFW NWS update. I guess I read the models wrong tonight, weird. Could have sworn they were trending back the other way, but I'll trust those guys. This is such a bummer considering what it was a day ago.


Blah. I hate Texas Winters.

[utweather]

The tv guys down in Austin, Mark Murray(abc) and Jim Spencer(nbc) computer models are showing wintry mix from about travis country west and north. Mark tends to follow the nws, but Jim Spencer's is more bullish with the line a little more south and a few counties east from Wednesday evening all the way through Friday morning, but he mentioned that air temps will be trying to melt what falls. So snow in the upper levels trying to make it to the surface as flakes is the challenge. Seems the further south you go the precip gets quite a bit heavier also, but warmer of course. Looks like Temple northward and the hill country will see mostly snow and little rain if any based on their hour by hour forecasts.

[HockeyTx82]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1037 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.UPDATE...

REGARDING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING STORM
SYSTEM...BASED ON ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL DATA DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
INDICATED MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS WARMER IN NATURE AND WOULD
THEREFORE FAVOR MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THE EVENT. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER EXISTS BETWEEN THE
H925 AND H800 LAYER WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HOLDS RIGHT AROUND 0 DEG
C. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING THRU MUCH OF THE EVENT IN NORTH TX...SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD SEEM TO DEPEND ON THE TEMPERATURES IN
THIS FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER ALOFT. IF TEMPS HOLD RIGHT
AROUND 0 DEG C...A SNOWFLAKE/LIQUID RAINDROP MIX WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE WARMER NEAR SFC LAYER AND MOSTLY RAIN WILL FALL. IF THIS
ISOTHERMAL LAYER HOLDS CLOSER TO -2 DEG C NEARLY ALL SNOWFLAKES
WILL ENTER THE WARMER NEAR SFC LAYER AND MOSTLY WET SNOW WOULD
FALL. 00Z GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TO A MOSTLY COLD RAINFALL
EVENT...WITH MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW NEAR THE RED RIVER.
FOR CONTINUITY WILL LEAVE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW AS RELATIVELY SMALL TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THIS ISOTHERMAL
LAYER ALOFT WILL HAVE A BIG CHANGE ON POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS AND CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IF 06 AND 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER OR REMAIN NEARLY IN LINE WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE COULD PROBABLY REDUCE CHANCES OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAVOR
OF A MORE LIQUID FORECAST.

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UP POPS A BIT FROM 12Z THURSDAY - 06Z FRIDAY
AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD.
BROUGHT SNOWFALL AMTS DOWN A BIT GENERALLY OVER THE METROPLEX. NOW
HAVE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO 1 INCH AS OPPOSED TO THE 1-2
INCHES IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES
ATM AS THE 1 INCH SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WET AND WOULD NOT BE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON MUCH MORE THAN GRASSY SFCS. A COLDER
SOLUTION WOULD WARRANT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS AND PROBABLY SOME SORT
OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. FOR NOW...MOST RECENT GUIDANCE POINTS
TO A LOW IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

CAVANAUGH

Hey more power to them if they hold on and end up being right, however I so want them to be wrong.....

[orangeblood]

This sucks regarding the DFW NWS update. I guess I read the models wrong tonight, weird. Could have sworn they were trending back the other way, but I'll trust those guys. This is such a bummer considering what it was a day ago.


Blah. I hate Texas Winters.

There is one thing I've noticed regarding the temperature guidance on the American models the Fort Worth office refers to. If this is a continuous light to moderate precip event, wouldn't the temperature be much closer to the dew point than they are projecting. Depending on what is modeled correctly, wouldn't temperatures stay near freezing or slightly below freezing for majority of the event ?

[Ntxw]

Two words, evaporative cooling.

I've always thought areas I-20 north would be prime for snow for this storm. Sticking to that idea. The battleground as many pro mets have said would be a line from Waco to Tyler. Just my opinion.

[orangeblood]

Two words, evaporative cooling.

I've always thought areas I-20 north would be prime for snow for this storm. Sticking to that idea. The battleground as many pro mets have said would be a line from Waco to Tyler. Just my opinion.

I know. And is that not being factored into the forecast? I mean we're not dealing with any warm pockets of air aloft. The entire column is below freezing. We must be missing something.

[HockeyTx82]

Two words, evaporative cooling.

I've always thought areas I-20 north would be prime for snow for this storm. Sticking to that idea. The battleground as many pro mets have said would be a line from Waco to Tyler. Just my opinion.

I know. And is that not being factored into the forecast? I mean we're not dealing with any warm pockets of air aloft. The entire column is below freezing. We must be missing something.

They must know something we don't just like that car companies have the 300MPG carburetor locked up in a safe.

[iorange55]

I think they're excepting a volcano to erupt spreading hot lava all over the streets cause not only the snow to melt, but the entire city as well.

[katheria]

Two words, evaporative cooling.

I've always thought areas I-20 north would be prime for snow for this storm. Sticking to that idea. The battleground as many pro mets have said would be a line from Waco to Tyler. Just my opinion.

I know. And is that not being factored into the forecast? I mean we're not dealing with any warm pockets of air aloft. The entire column is below freezing. We must be missing something.

They must know something we don't just like that car companies have the 300MPG carburetor locked up in a safe.

that wouldnt suprise me if they actually did LOL (carburetor) can u imagine the lost gas profits???

[katheria]

I think they're excepting a volcano to erupt spreading hot lava all over the streets cause not only the snow to melt, but the entire city as well.

[txtiff]

I think they're excepting a volcano to erupt spreading hot lava all over the streets cause not only the snow to melt, but the entire city as well.

No, No, No, you have it all wrong. Have you guys forgotten about the HUGE umbrella that hangs over us all winter? Blocking only the snow of course

[orangeblood]

Canadian looks very promising, with the system being faster and dumping more precip.

[katheria]

I think they're excepting a volcano to erupt spreading hot lava all over the streets cause not only the snow to melt, but the entire city as well.

No, No, No, you have it all wrong. Have you guys forgotten about the HUGE umbrella that hangs over us all winter? Blocking only the snow of course

nope havent forgot....if it rains again...my backyard is gonna float away...still have standing water 3" deep.... Pia when you have 3 dogs! talk about mud....shakes head...