Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

West Texas is a big place! Can you elaborate a little and does vortmax mean anything to my geography?

Doesn't look like much of west Texas gets moisture incoming in time on this run. It just means maybe flurries underneath the low. Most of the moisture will be to the north and east of the low.

[HockeyTx82]

Here's a good pond for Hockey: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/11128371

and here is the best pic I've taken of what real cold looks like here: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/7807353

and now I'll leave your Texan forum so you folks can get back to your current weather . ;D

I just pulled myself up from passing out from over excitment!

[iorange55]

Just had my first fall! I was being an idiot and sliding on the ice in the back and did an unplanned 360, and fell.

[PineyWoods]

Doesn't look like much of west Texas gets moisture incoming in time on this run. It just means maybe flurries underneath the low. Most of the moisture will be to the north and east of the low.

Does the latest model show the ULL moving more north along a central Texas to east Texas path? What effect will that have with the low that is supposed to develop along the coast? Will it limit the low level moisture for precip here in east Texas?
thx

[Mattie]

Cars are sliding around all over the place right now. Seems like the ice melts a little at the surface, makes it super slick, and then it refreezes almost immediately. Craziness.

Need to use salt...

That rusts your undercarriage of your car . . . .

[southerngale]

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[Anthony]

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Hello all from San Antonio

Just joined yesterday, but been too busy to post. Love reading the boards though. (and I'm glad my power is back on for good this time :fingers crossed: )

[benrayrog]

What's next?

[CajunMama]

Just had my first fall! I was being an idiot and sliding on the ice in the back and did an unplanned 360, and fell.

I don't mean to giggle (i'm glad you didn't hurt yourself) but i can just envision you twirling around and hitting the ground...and not gracefully!

[southerngale]

Welcome to Storm2k, Anthony!

[Ntxw]

Does the latest model show the ULL moving more north along a central Texas to east Texas path? What effect will that have with the low that is supposed to develop along the coast? Will it limit the low level moisture for precip here in east Texas?
thx

ULL moves from SW Texas to NE Oklahoma on the NAM. Moisture feed in SE Texas shouldn't be effected, no changes really for E Texas, maybe even more precip.

Fort Worth and Denton schools are closed again Thurs for those with interests there.

[setxwxgurl]

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Coming to your live from Orange, TX!!!! Brrr..its cold outside

[srainhoutx]

From Jeff Lindner HCFCD

***Winter Storm Watch issued for all of SE TX, all of the coastal bend, and S Texas***

***Potentially historic winter storm event shaping up for Texas***

Significant accumulations of ice now likely resulting in downed power lines and trees limbs across the coastal sections of TX with heavy snow across inland locations. Ice accumulations may approach 1/4th to ½ of an inch which is well into the local warning criteria for winter storm/ice storm watches/warnings. Widespread power disruptions/outages appear possible.

4.4 inch snowfall for KIAH in 1960 may be challenged with this event (this is the second highest snow total for Houston on record). The highest is 20 inches on Feb 14, 1895 and I think that record will stand!

Discussion:

Models are not handling the rapid advection of moisture into the region today as noted by the increasing cloud cover. Water vapor shows an impressive plume of Pacific moisture aimed right at the region and this will increase with time. Large scale upper low over continues to dig into the great basin and will begin the eject eastward Thursday. Appears models forecasting worst case QPF amounts are in fact going to be the correct route to follow and will bump all totals while adding heavy ice accumulations to parts of Harris, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Chambers, Calhoun, and Victoria counties.

Will attempt to resolve the P-type changes that we are going to face, but it is really a guessing game as to when P-types change and how this affects accumulations. Models have intensified the warm nose forecast to back toward the coast while keepings surface temperatures well below freezing which now brings the threat of heavy freezing rain/sleet to the SE 1/3rd of the area and snow/heavy snow elsewhere. Other item will be to onset precipitation between noon and 300pm Thursday and linger it until early afternoon Friday giving the area an extended period of falling precipitation. Impressive 50kt moisture advection above this cold dome is forecast on Thursday afternoon…so what does fall could be on the heavy side.

So here we go as my best shot right now on P-types and accumulations:

SE of a line from Alice to Victoria to Bay City to Angleton to downtown Houston to Liberty:

Freezing rain/sleet mix starting Thursday afternoon and continuing into Thursday night. Warm nose may deepen enough to remove sleet and keep all freezing rain. Friday morning colder air sweeps in a change over to snow. Ice accumulations of .10-.5 of an inch on all surface will likely produce downed trees and power lines. I am not sure the models have that warm nose correct, and if they do not if could be all snow for the coast.

SE of a line from Livingston to Columbus to San Antonio:

Sleet starting Thursday afternoon changing to snow. This area appears to lie in the most favorable lift and moisture area (roughly along US 59) for the most impressive accumulations. Expect all snow Thursday night and Friday. Meso scale bands will produce very heavy snowfall of 1-2” per hour. Will go with accumulations of sleet of less than 1 inch and snow fall accumulations of 3-5 inches area wide with isolated totals upwards of 6-8 inches under the meso bands.

For the rest of the area:

Snow will onset for the entire event. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely with isolated totals of 4-5 inches.

Actions:

HCTRA and TXDOT are applying anti-icing agent to area freeways/bridges and overpasses at this time across the entire region

Tracks are being equipped with spreaders and loaded with sand to spread on area freeways

Harris County EOC has moved to Level 3 activation

Residents should prepare today for potential widespread power outages, down tree limbs and power lines, and extremely dangerous travel conditions.

Hazards

Travel:

Conditions will rapidly go downhill with the onset of the precipitation. Very cold ground temperatures/road temperatures are already in place suggesting that what falls will freeze/accumulate on impact. Surface roads will be in just as bad of shape as bridges and overpasses given the very cold ground. Expect travel will be nearly impossible by Friday morning on all major freeways and surface streets. Sanding operations will only have modest success due to precipitation intensity and widespread nature of the event and road crews will likely be overwhelmed quickly.

Power/Vegetation:

Now that freezing rain/icing is becoming a larger threat along the coast significant impacts to trees and power line are possible. Weight of glazed ice on tree limbs and power lines may result in extensive damage and widespread power outages. Texas power grid is already under tremendous strain due to frozen natural gas supply lines and this will potentially add more strain and damage to the network. Power conservation is strongly encouraged to help maintain the stability of the entire power grid and ERCOT has ordered rotating blackouts to help reduce the strain on the system. Damage by ice to the actual power infrastructure is possible…and restoration will not be quick.

Aviation:

Big trouble on this aspect as aircraft will require extensive de-icing of control surfaces and runways ice/snow removal. Given the expected intensity of the falling precipitation and very cold surface temperatures, it will be hard for ground crews to keep up and expect significant delays and cancellations at both major Houston airports.

Will try and get the next update out by 430/500pm with updates on accumulations.

Winter Storm/Ice Storm Warnings will be required later tonight if not sooner.

[Portastorm]

EWX just hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for the area. I-35 corridor is expected to get 1-2 inches with 3 inches or more east of a Cuero-Luling-Giddings line.

[DonWrk]

National Weather Service has had a busy winter thus far lol

[bktkckak]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
317 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA FOR TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FOUR STATE AREA. IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN TONIGHT.

AFTER A RATHER QUITE NIGHT TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH ARKANSAS...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTH LOUISIANA
AND EAST TEXAS. SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBIA TO
NATCHITOCHES LA...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
NORTH LA AND EAST TX THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR...AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL TRANSITION TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...CREATING A MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARM UP
WILL OCCUR FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
03

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Just had my first fall! I was being an idiot and sliding on the ice in the back and did an unplanned 360, and fell.

Ouch (and I know I said I'd stay out but....) ..... the walk one adopts during the conditions you are facing is more of an old person shuffle. Small steps don't move fast and walk on your grass its so much safer.

[gpsnowman]

Portastorm, I am happy for you. Looks like the real deal for your area. For alot of areas for that matter. Just hoping some snow makes it to DFW!

[Turtle]

*EDIT* Someone already posted the SHV discussion.

Hope to be in some kind of winter watch. I haven't even gotten WWA.

[snow4444]

Portastorm, I am happy for you. Looks like the real deal for your area. For alot of areas for that matter. Just hoping some snow makes it to DFW!

The latest model indications are that it will. I would say 1-2 inches.