Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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Shoshana
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5921 Postby Shoshana » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:47 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:What is Lucy, again?


Lucy is the personification of having winter weather promised to you, either by a computer model, or a known weather organization ... and then, just when you get your hopes up and excited ... it doesn't happen. Just like when Charlie Brown tries to kick the football and Lucy snatches it away at the last second. See my avatar. I have been using the analogy for years here ... probably much to the dismay of my fellow S2Kers. :lol:


HAHAHAHA! That's hysterical! And something I'm oh so familiar with. Our plight is similar, Portastorm!



LOL that's cause we're all in Austin!

Seems the rolling blackouts are over for now and somehow we managed to never lose power.

Waiting for the snow!!!!
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Dustan78
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#5922 Postby Dustan78 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:48 pm

TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO
THAW OUT FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
ON MONDAY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE AS COLD NEXT WEEK AS
IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 20S. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL MAINTAIN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO EVENING WITH NEXT
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT BEST MOISTURE AND
HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW. THE ECMWF HANGS ANOTHER STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY BACK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SIGNAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THIS FEATURE WITHIN THE ECMWF...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR MORE SNOWFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
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txtiff
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5923 Postby txtiff » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:48 pm

iorange55 wrote:
txtiff wrote:Thank you. I thought the temps were going to be above freezing by then???


NWS has a high of 32 for Friday, and it could be a tad cooler than that. Most of the precip will be in the morning around here.


Just one more question. Should we expect watches or warnings with this system? If so when would you expect those to come out? :cold:
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downsouthman1
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5924 Postby downsouthman1 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:51 pm

With that new graphic FW NWS just put up on their page, I'm not sure it's accurate. With that particular trajectory of the low, there would be heavier precip as far north as San Saba, Mills, Hamilton, Bosque, Hill, & Ellis counties & points south & east of there.
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#5925 Postby DonWrk » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:52 pm

NWS just added 30% chance of snow on Friday for my area far north Texas. From the talks I didn't really expect to see anything, thought it was going to stay farther south. Nice to see an added chance getting closer to the event.
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megsy
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5926 Postby megsy » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:52 pm

Just saying hello! (Was one of the guests but finally logged in.)

We're in Katy, desperately hoping for a few inches. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5927 Postby downsouthman1 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:53 pm

txtiff wrote:
iorange55 wrote:
txtiff wrote:Thank you. I thought the temps were going to be above freezing by then???


NWS has a high of 32 for Friday, and it could be a tad cooler than that. Most of the precip will be in the morning around here.


Just one more question. Should we expect watches or warnings with this system? If so when would you expect those to come out? :cold:


FW NWS doesn't wanna go out on a limb with those just yet. We're even closer to the Super Bowl than the storm earlier this week. They're still talking about WWAs for tomorrow. I suspect after the 12Z runs tomorrow, we'll have WSWs for our area.
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SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5928 Postby SouthernMet » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:54 pm

Just one more question. Should we expect watches or warnings with this system? If so when would you expect those to come out? :cold:


NWS Says Winter Weather Advisory.. And tommorow as it may be just under WSW criteria, though it may warrant that further south.
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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5929 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:54 pm

I think the grand finale is coming around the middle of next week. Then your typical La Nina pattern starts taking over and we can start warming up around here.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Last edited by orangeblood on Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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txtiff
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5930 Postby txtiff » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:58 pm

Thanks downsouthman!!!
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sensoria
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#5931 Postby sensoria » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:58 pm

I just got this email...

Dear Travis County CoCoRaHS Observer:

It’s beginning to look more and more likely our region will see the development of snow Thursday night into Friday morning when a trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of Mexico. With a very cold arctic air mass in place, precipitation from this system is expected to be all snow and not rain. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Central Texas, including Travis County, from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. National Weather Service forecasters indicate our area could see between 1 and 2 inches of snow during this period.

I wanted to give everyone advance notice about this threat for snow and provide a quick review on how to measure snow and how to determine a water equivalent from your snow.

Basic procedures for snowfall measurement:

Remove the funnel and inner tube from your gauge and set inside. Leave the outer portion of your gauge at its normal location to catch the snow and frozen precipitation.

At observation time, take your gauge inside. Pour a measured amount of warm water into the inner tube and then pour this into the outer measuring tube to melt the snow.

Now determine the total amount of water sitting in the outer tube and subtract out the known amount of warm water your added earlier. This new value is your water equivalent.

Report this amount in the regular precipitation reporting block.

Be sure to then return your gauge to its normal position outside.

If and where possible, set out a snow board to measure snowfall. Snow boards may be plastic or wood and need to be placed in a flat, open area away from trees and your house. At observation time, use a ruler and measure the height of the snow above the flat surface of your snow board. Snowfall is typically measured to the nearest tenth of an inch. Snowfall amounts are recorded in the “New Snowfall” reporting block in CoCoRaHS. For more information on measuring snow, observers should review the training slide show on the CoCoRaHS website.

If you have any questions, feel free to contact me at the address or phone number listed below. Thanks in advance for your help in recording the possible snow. Snowfall is rare in our part of Texas so I hope everyone will be prepared to measure and track the snow in your area properly.

Thanks and regards,
Bob

Bob Rose
Meteorologist,
Lower Colorado River Authority
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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5932 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:02 pm

GFS is being Mr Stingy again regarding moisture :lol:. It's amazing how much different it is compared to all of the ensembles.
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southerngale
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5933 Postby southerngale » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:05 pm

Wanted to share in this thread. I'm in a Winter Storm Watch now!

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING...

.CARIBBEAN MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY...THE INCOMING WARM
MOIST AIR WILL UPSLIDE OVER THE COLD CONTINENTAL AIR AT THE
SURFACE. PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO
THE UPSLIDING CARIBBEAN AIR. FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF A LAKE CHARLES TO ALEXANDRIA LINE...WHILE SNOW
AND ICE PELLETS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE LINE.


LAZ027-030-TXZ180>182-201-030615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.A.0001.110204T0000Z-110204T1500Z/
VERNON-BEAUREGARD-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...DERIDDER...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. THE MIXTURE WILL EVOLVE TO MAINLY SNOW BY THURSDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


&&

$$





Image


Come on SNOW! :ggreen:
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Metalicwx220

Re: Re:

#5934 Postby Metalicwx220 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:06 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:
Metalicwx220"[quote="downsouthman1 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS. :eek:

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1654/gfspcp240m.gif


I can't find this map this far out. Do you know where to access it?


Look here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml

Choose the model run time (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, or 18Z). Choose the panel size (course, medium or fine) according to your monitor size (medium works well for a 19-24" monitor). Then choose from either the "10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn" column or click the link at the top to go to the upper-air GFS graphics and choose from the "MSLP 1000 - 500mb" column.

I also like to look at the twister site for GFS snow accumulation maps. Go here:
http://www.twisterdata.com/

Click the "GFS" tab up top and open the "Winter" section in the left navigation frame. Choose "snow depth" from the list of winter panels then navigate to the hour you want to look at. In addition, this map is clickable to produce an atmospheric sounding for wherever you click on the map.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5935 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:06 pm

Ntxw wrote:GFS is being Mr Stingy again regarding moisture :lol:. It's amazing how much different it is compared to all of the ensembles.



It's just tired of giving us winter weather. Grumpiest model of all! It's still showing it being widespread, though. Which is a good sign.
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#5936 Postby txagwxman » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:10 pm

Could Houston get missed? The snow that is...I hate this pesky 850 mb warm layer...

Hmmm.
Last edited by txagwxman on Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5937 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:11 pm

The local weatheman here are really being bullish with this system tomorrow night into friday. I thought they would be a bit more cautious with it.
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#5938 Postby snow4444 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:11 pm

Iam going to say 1-2 inches with this for DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5939 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:16 pm

iorange55 wrote:The local weatheman here are really being bullish with this system tomorrow night into friday. I thought they would be a bit more cautious with it.


It's probably because it's so cold. Wouldn't be hard for light precip to stick and since we're so cold not a lot of moisture needed for higher totals. If it snows, it will be the fluffy snow that sticks the moment it falls.
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5940 Postby SouthernMet » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:16 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=2

NWS says from Granbury-Ft Worth-Plano nw gets a trace. And SE of there gets up to 1.5"
Grain of salt need I say more... Wait for 12z guidance before you get excited/dissapointed.
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