Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

18z Euro came in aggressive, thats definitely a winter storm

Trending back towards its originally solution it had for several days…here are the Kuchera rations, may be a little higher

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro is making some positive shifts through 90 hrs.

[Ivanhater]

What is the 18z euro further down the Gulf coast?

[orangeblood]

What is the 18z euro further down the Gulf coast?

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, Wichita, KS has had at least 2 inches of snow on the ground for at least 12 days, the most since 1993.

That is rare.

[Ivanhater]

What is the 18z euro further down the Gulf coast?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/se/total_snow_kuchera/1737050400/1737568800-DFTNk9Ag8go.png

Thank you!

[Charleswachal]

18z Euro came in aggressive, thats definitely a winter storm

Trending back towards its originally solution it had for several days…here are the Kuchera rations, may be a little higher

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1737050400/1737568800-3FToNVz1JqQ.png

This would by far be the biggest birthday gift I could ever imagine for the 22nd. 6 inches of snow in Houston would be downright crazy.

[TheAustinMan]

A little comparison with the last winter wx event here. We've got the general themes and a broad sketch of ingredients, but details will need to be hashed out.

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro bumps the 1" line up closer to DFW, and with ratios likely better than depicted, it wouldn't take much more of a north trend.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

A little comparison with the last winter wx event here. We've got the general themes and a broad sketch of ingredients, but details will need to be hashed out.

https://i.imgur.com/ur91yp3.png

[sphelps8681]

What is the 18z euro further down the Gulf coast?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/se/total_snow_kuchera/1737050400/1737568800-DFTNk9Ag8go.png

It is hard to tell but looks like over 6in over me. Lord have mercy.

[iorange55]

Latest from board favorite, Evan Andrews…

By now we all know it's going to get cold Sunday into next week.
But how cold?
And is it a DRY cold or will it snow?
Time for a little science (my apologies in advance).

Four common models. All valid MLK (Monday) morning.
The US is deep into Arctic air east of the Rockies. But how deep for us here in NTX? Not as deep as you think. If you follow the streamlines (purple arrow) you notice the plunge coming straight from the poles turns away from NTX...somewhere up near Kansas/OK. While this bunch of maps doesn't show surface temps (because I don't believe in showing modeled data that far out) it looks as if we'll be in the low 30s here with lows near 20. Some teens. A little colder than the last outbreak but not near records. Or historic cold. Or 2021 cold. OY, the crap that gets on social media.
Also, it looks to last through Wednesday AM before we start heading back up. So roughly 84 hours in the coldest air.

As for precip? This is nothing like last weeks system. I've highlighted on each one a disturbance that could be a trigger IF it were to phase (combine) with the main jet stream. If it doesn't then the odds of seeing anything here outside of some light snow or heavy flurries looks minimal. The only model that hints at phasing is the ICON and that's generally a crappy model anyway. No offense to the Germans...but it's rarely used here. The Euro shows no phasing. The GFS that two days ago hinted at phasing is delayed now until it gets warmer mid-week and the Ensemble (GFS) shows minimal signs. The Euro ensemble (not shown is similar). There is weak lift Monday into Tuesday AM, so at best we'll see clouds...and a low chance for a dusting of fluffy snow. No snowballs or snowmen as the air is pretty "low moisture".

While things can always change because models are...well models (and not the real thing)...we are getting into the 4 day window where changes are usually smaller.

Until then? Enjoy the 60s and my "pick day of the week"

[PTrackerLA]

What's amazing are the temps on the Euro when the snow is falling, especially in South LA. Primarily in the mid 20's (falling well into the teens Tuesday night) which would absolutely paralyze these areas if we get 3"-6" of snow.

[snownado]

Latest from board favorite, Evan Andrews…

By now we all know it's going to get cold Sunday into next week.
But how cold?
And is it a DRY cold or will it snow?
Time for a little science (my apologies in advance).

Four common models. All valid MLK (Monday) morning.
The US is deep into Arctic air east of the Rockies. But how deep for us here in NTX? Not as deep as you think. If you follow the streamlines (purple arrow) you notice the plunge coming straight from the poles turns away from NTX...somewhere up near Kansas/OK. While this bunch of maps doesn't show surface temps (because I don't believe in showing modeled data that far out) it looks as if we'll be in the low 30s here with lows near 20. Some teens. A little colder than the last outbreak but not near records. Or historic cold. Or 2021 cold. OY, the crap that gets on social media.
Also, it looks to last through Wednesday AM before we start heading back up. So roughly 84 hours in the coldest air.

As for precip? This is nothing like last weeks system. I've highlighted on each one a disturbance that could be a trigger IF it were to phase (combine) with the main jet stream. If it doesn't then the odds of seeing anything here outside of some light snow or heavy flurries looks minimal. The only model that hints at phasing is the ICON and that's generally a crappy model anyway. No offense to the Germans...but it's rarely used here. The Euro shows no phasing. The GFS that two days ago hinted at phasing is delayed now until it gets warmer mid-week and the Ensemble (GFS) shows minimal signs. The Euro ensemble (not shown is similar). There is weak lift Monday into Tuesday AM, so at best we'll see clouds...and a low chance for a dusting of fluffy snow. No snowballs or snowmen as the air is pretty "low moisture".

While things can always change because models are...well models (and not the real thing)...we are getting into the 4 day window where changes are usually smaller.

Until then? Enjoy the 60s and my "pick day of the week"

I read all of that with a heavy NYC accent (since that's where he's from).

[txtwister78]

Just for fun but the Euro AI did look more bullish on its 12z run. Will be interesting to see if this is what we start trending toward.

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest from board favorite, Evan Andrews…

By now we all know it's going to get cold Sunday into next week.
But how cold?
And is it a DRY cold or will it snow?
Time for a little science (my apologies in advance).

Four common models. All valid MLK (Monday) morning.
The US is deep into Arctic air east of the Rockies. But how deep for us here in NTX? Not as deep as you think. If you follow the streamlines (purple arrow) you notice the plunge coming straight from the poles turns away from NTX...somewhere up near Kansas/OK. While this bunch of maps doesn't show surface temps (because I don't believe in showing modeled data that far out) it looks as if we'll be in the low 30s here with lows near 20. Some teens. A little colder than the last outbreak but not near records. Or historic cold. Or 2021 cold. OY, the crap that gets on social media.
Also, it looks to last through Wednesday AM before we start heading back up. So roughly 84 hours in the coldest air.

As for precip? This is nothing like last weeks system. I've highlighted on each one a disturbance that could be a trigger IF it were to phase (combine) with the main jet stream. If it doesn't then the odds of seeing anything here outside of some light snow or heavy flurries looks minimal. The only model that hints at phasing is the ICON and that's generally a crappy model anyway. No offense to the Germans...but it's rarely used here. The Euro shows no phasing. The GFS that two days ago hinted at phasing is delayed now until it gets warmer mid-week and the Ensemble (GFS) shows minimal signs. The Euro ensemble (not shown is similar). There is weak lift Monday into Tuesday AM, so at best we'll see clouds...and a low chance for a dusting of fluffy snow. No snowballs or snowmen as the air is pretty "low moisture".

While things can always change because models are...well models (and not the real thing)...we are getting into the 4 day window where changes are usually smaller.

Until then? Enjoy the 60s and my "pick day of the week"

I read all of that with a heavy NYC accent (since that's where he's from).

I mean he’s not wrong, but it just wouldn’t be the same without his “old man yells at cloud” energy

[gpsnowman]

Driving to Uncertain Texas Sunday for a quick family visit. It would be nice to drive home Monday evening with some wind blown light to moderate snow.

[Texas Snow]

So, I'm leaving Austin Saturday for 5 days of camping in the Big Bend area. (I'm gonna leave my water off!) What I've been gathering so far is that out there the forecasts have been consistently dry over that period, looks like lows maybe 20-25 at worst now. More concerned with wind, but it seems that's mostly Saturday night Sunday morning after FROPA.

We are going to Alpine to visit friends this weekend. Headed to the park Saturday, probably hike in the Basin and maybe head across the border to Boquillas. Perhaps our paths will cross.

[bubba hotep]

Trend on the Euro EPS from 06z - 12z - 18z today.

 https://x.com/whatisthisrds/status/1880060791694717260

[gpsnowman]

Trend on the Euro EPS from 06z - 12z - 18z today.

 https://x.com/whatisthisrds/status/1880060791694717260

Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!