North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

[gboudx]

Freeze Warning for almost all of NTX except Tarrant and Dallas counties and points southward. Even though we in Rockwall are under a Warning, I don't expect it to dip that low at my house. We're not in a valley and we're close to the lake. However, my basil bush may take a beating. Guess I better go clip off a bunch today and cover it, just in case.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
210 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED BUT SLOWLY
TRANSIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD
TO WEAK RIDGING BY MID WEEK THAT LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY SURFACE ANALYSIS AND WV SAT LOOPS SHOW LARGE AREA OF VERY
DRY AIR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER THE REGION. TONIGHT WILL
BE VERY COLD DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S MEAN SOME PLACES (NORMALLY COLD AREA) SHOULD
SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WHILE ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. HAVE KEPT THE METROPLEX IN THE 33-38 RANGE DUE TO HEAT RELEASE
OVERNIGHT....BUT ISOLATED RURAL METROPLEX AREAS MIGHT GO TO
FREEZING. ITS WAS A HARD CALL AS TO WHERE TO EXTEND OR TRIM THE
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. WE DID COOLED THE AREAS NORTH OF I-20 BY 1
TO 3 DEGREES...WHICH IS COLDER THE THE MOS NUMBERS.

I live away from the heat island of the inner cities, so a freeze is a good chance for my area in the morning since I'm around 3 to 4 degrees cooler than what is reported in FTW.

[CaptinCrunch]

Got my first freeze of the season this morning with a low of 32, had a good frost on the rooftop's with lighter frost on cars and even the lawn.

On a sadder note looks like the upper ridge will setup by Halloween with high's in the upper 70's and Tricker or Treating lows in the upper 50's. Not what I was hoping for with all this chilly weather just before Halloween, but that's weather for you.

Couple of Halloween Facts over the past 109 years for D/FW.

Record High: 89 degrees set in 1934, 1938 and *1977, *which was followed by the coldest winter or record (1st)
Significant Events
1993 - It was a cold day for trick-or-treaters with a record low of 29°F.
1991 - A cold, rainy day saw a range of temperature from 34°F to 43°F. (Record)
1981 - Thunderstorms dropped 3.63" of rain (record)

[gboudx]

We got to 30 in Rockwall.

[CaptinCrunch]

We got to 30 in Rockwall.

Looking at the record book for the earliest first freeze I found it was on October 22, 1898. That winter saw 56 freezes and ranks 3rd for the coldest winter on record, and has the lowest recorded temp of -8 below in D/FW since records started being kept. Oddly enough I found that other winters following a October freeze were average at best. (between 28 and 38 freezes for the season) Please keep in mind that officially the temp at D/FW Airport did not reach 32, so this was not an official first freeze of the season.

The winter of 1977/78 didn't see it's first freeze till December 5th. (62 freezes that season) the last coming on March 6th.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We got to 30 in Rockwall.

Looking at the record book for the earliest first freeze I found it was on October 22, 1898. That winter saw 56 freezes and ranks 3rd for the coldest winter on record. Oddly enough I found that other winters following a October freeze were average at best. (between 28 and 38 freezes for the season)

The winter of 1977/78 didn't see it's first freeze till December 5th. (62 freezes that season) the last coming on March 6th.

I think this winter may be one of the average ones in terms of total freezes, however I feel it will be very front loaded. Instead of having the freezes all spread out, I think the south can expect to see most of them arrive during the first part of the season. December will probably be one to remember, IMO. I am not even ruling out something similar to 1989 based on what I have seen so far (early cold snaps, cold building in Alaska, and much more arctic ice than last year).

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
224 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT
WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...WE ARE NOT GOING AS
COLD AS LAST NIGHT. VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING PROTECTED AREAS
COULD/MAY REACH FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...BUT MOST HIGH GROUND
AND URBAN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. AREAS EAST OF I-35
WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER NO FREEZE WARNING IS
PLANNED WITH THIS ISSUANCE SINCE MUCH OF THIS AREA SAW FREEZING
TEMPS LAST NIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT...MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 4 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION FORESEEN FOR THIS
FORECAST.

[CaptinCrunch]

We got to 30 in Rockwall.

Looking at the record book for the earliest first freeze I found it was on October 22, 1898. That winter saw 56 freezes and ranks 3rd for the coldest winter on record. Oddly enough I found that other winters following a October freeze were average at best. (between 28 and 38 freezes for the season)

The winter of 1977/78 didn't see it's first freeze till December 5th. (62 freezes that season) the last coming on March 6th.

I think this winter may be one of the average ones in terms of total freezes, however I feel it will be very front loaded. Instead of having the freezes all spread out, I think the south can expect to see most of them arrive during the first part of the season. December will probably be one to remember, IMO. I am not even ruling out something similar to 1989 based on what I have seen so far (early cold snaps, cold building in Alaska, and much more arctic ice than last year).

I remember the Siberian Cold of December 89, it got down to -1 below on Dec 22nd under clear skies and no wind. As a matter of fact that whole week leading up to Christmas stayed below freezing with several nights in the single digits. I think we went 8 days straight with highs at 32 degrees or less.

(December 1989 recorded 21 days with a freezing temp of 32 or less) The rest of Winter a total of 9 days with a recorded temp of 32 or less, with Feb 17 being the last freeze of the season.

[gboudx]

CPC Outlook for Nov-Feb doesn't look all that good for a cooler than normal winter for NTX.

On the bright side, above normal precip is predicted.

Temp
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 2_temp.gif

Precip
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 2_prcp.gif

[CaptinCrunch]

CPC Outlook for Nov-Feb doesn't look all that good for a cooler than normal winter for NTX.

On the bright side, above normal precip is predicted.

Temp
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 2_temp.gif

Precip
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 2_prcp.gif

CPC outlook calls for above normal temps every year for the Dec-Feb time frame. This is like the 3rd or 4th year in a row they cried warmer than normal winter, and the 2nd straight year they cried it for 3/4 of the country.

I rank the CPC right up there with the GFS as the most OVERBLOWN forecast known to man......It's like when the local weather forecasters call for that 50 year snow storm only to get a cold rain or the whole thing just falls apart 48 hrs out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

CPC Outlook for Nov-Feb doesn't look all that good for a cooler than normal winter for NTX.

On the bright side, above normal precip is predicted.

Temp
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 2_temp.gif

Precip
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 2_prcp.gif

CPC outlook calls for above normal temps every year for the Dec-Feb time frame. This is like the 3rd or 4th year in a row they cried warmer than normal winter, and the 2nd straight year they cried it for 3/4 of the country.

I rank the CPC right up there with the GFS as the most OVERBLOWN forecast known to man......

I 100% agree. I used to like their outlooks, but now days they are usually not that good. All they ever forecast is "warmer than normal", and as we all know, that forecast does not always play out.

BTW - Looking at all their predictions over the next year, the only time they show "cooler than normal" is for the end of winter into early Spring for a small section of the Pacific Northwest. Other than that, pretty much every other map features "warmer than normal" scattered throughout the country.

[gboudx]

I'd like to see verification on their past predictions. What's the point of putting those out anyway, if there always off?

I don't put much credibility into them either. I just thought it was funny that DFW WFAA met Steve McCauley showed the graphic on his 10pm weather segment last night.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'd like to see verification on their past predictions. What's the point of putting those out anyway, if there always off?

I don't put much credibility into them either. I just thought it was funny that DFW WFAA met Steve McCauley showed the graphic on his 10pm weather segment last night.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

Cause they base their forecast off trends to TRY and predict the climate, the problem is that the climate is unpredictable thats why they always add the disclaimer

"NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU NOV 20 2008"


I don't see this "warmer than normal" happing this year, to many other factors have come into play.

1. Arctic Ice and Snow pack is already greater than last year
2. Alaska is already below normal for temps and above normal for snow fall
3. Early arctic cold front to GOM
4. Parts of the EC have seen their earliest snow of the season
5. NO solar activity (sun spots)

If anything I think we'll see a normal to below normal winter for the areas forecasted to be above normal

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF NORTH TEXAS WEATHER INTO SUNDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS BY FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

BIG CHANGES BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS A BIG PACIFIC UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO
THE WEST COAST WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UP CONSIDERABLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLORADO SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Do you see a patteren setting up for the winter? Trough, Ridge, Trough, Ridge.........

[somethingfunny]

Had a frost here in Pottsboro yesterday morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

IT SHOULD BE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TRICK-OR-TREATING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ENSURE STRATUS THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS
WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL REPRESENT OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA ON DAY 8.

Halloween: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. South southwest wind around 10 mph.

Halloween Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind around 10 mph.

[somethingfunny]

So above average for Halloween. Dang. Then again last year was above average on Halloween too, and I got over 6 inches of snow.....also keep in mind that due to the leap year, the climate might be thinking that today is Halloween...but it's above average today too.

But it was chilly two days ago.


Side note: Shouldn't we be seeing that severe weather outbreak that comes with the seasonal change pretty soon?

[CaptinCrunch]

Ok, so here is this years Halloween weather recap for 2008.

H/84.....L/59.....AVG/72...... +11 above normal

That makes this Halloween 4 degrees warmer than last year. However this year many folks in NTX saw their first freeze of the season just days before Halloween even though officaly it was not recorded at D/FW Airport, so what does this mean for our winter (Dec-Feb) here in the NTX area.

If history repeats itself we are in for a warmer than avg winter (based on a monthly avg of each of the calendar's winter months). Also note that out side of the winter of 1898 winter's that followed a October freeze were normal to above normal in temps and normal to below normal in precip.

[Ptarmigan]

There are lot of things that play a role, besides PDO. You got the NAO, PNA, and Aleutian Low. Also, we are in a Neutral ENSO cycle. Some of the coldest winters happened in neutral or La Nina ENSO phase.

[CaptinCrunch]

2nd freeze of the season here at the house this morning, got down to 32 degrees.

AFTER A COLD...CALM...AND CLEAR MORNING...TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
AID OF ADIABATIC WARMING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE
NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED COLD
FRONT THAN THE GFS BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY
POISED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DAY OF MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. AGAIN...THE GFS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WELL SO WILL
SIDE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE NORTH THE UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTH.