Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS and the ECMWF are both showing a pretty strong blast of cold air coming down the plains this weekend. The ECMWF drops 850mb temperatures over OKC down to -5C by Saturday morning with a 1040mb+ high pressure system moving out of Canada and into the US. We will need to watch this to see how it unfolds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS and the ECMWF are both showing a pretty strong blast of cold air coming down the plains this weekend. The ECMWF drops 850mb temperatures over OKC down to -5C by Saturday morning with a 1040mb+ high pressure system moving out of Canada and into the US. We will need to watch this to see how it unfolds.

Tonight's 00z GFS run continues the trend. Take a look at the monster trough it digs into the plains in about 5 days!





There is no doubt that this kind of pattern would probably deliver the southern plains its coldest weather so far this season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Coldest temperatures predicted by the 00z GFS during this event...

Omaha, NE (OAX)
850mb: -11.0C (12.2F)
Surface: -4.3C (24.3F)

Oklahoma City, OK (OKC)
850mb: -7.2C (19F)
Surface: -4.1C (24.6F)

Dallas, TX (DFW)
850mb: -5.8C (21.6F)
Surface: 0.1C (32.2F)

Houston, TX (IAH)
850mb: -4.0C (24.8F)
Surface: 1.4C (34.5F)

[JonathanBelles]

I wish this would hit a few days earlier so it would coincide with my trip to Pensacola.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From Joe Bastardi: Next week will feel more like December rather than November from the plains eastward.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is something fun to look at. The 00z GFS is showing at a major southern plains winter storm taking shape next Thursday...





According to the accumulation maps, this run brings snow cover all the way south into Texas! Such a feat would be quite impressive for a pre-Thanksgiving storm. What else is impressive is the fact that it drives the freezing line well south into the lone star state, with lows bottoming out at 22F in Dallas and 28F in Houston on the morning of the 21st. Such readings would be very rare for this time of year.

With all this said, we do need to remember that this is the GFS we are dealing with (lol). While the fact that this solution is only ~200 hours out gives it a little more believability than if it were 300+ hours out, I still would not put too much faith in this scenario actually happening until we get a little bit closer to the timeframe.

[Valkhorn]

I'm in Knoxville and I'm already watching the 0z run of the GFS. According to the last 2 runs of 4 it put down a decent snowstorm for our region (for November). Decent to me is anthing above 4". Also, I'm new to the area but this place has had about a half-dozen 20" snowstorms before.

The temps seem crazy after the snow is put down - hovering around 15F to 25F here during that time frame. The mountains east of here would probably be close to 0 overnight and in the 10s during the day if that panned out.

But, who knows. Two weekends ago we were only progged to get a light rain shower or two and it ended up snowing enough to accumulate just north and east of here. Plus, we're forecasted to get snow showers Sat. night.

Looks like it'll be cold so I better get some firewood.

[flywheel02]

I can't wait to actually have a winter this year. However, opening day of deer season is going to be COLD!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Flywheel I'll gladly turn my fans in a southerly direction to make sure you folks have the cold arctic breezes that you are so eager to receive.

SaskatchewanScreamer

[Extremeweatherguy]

Today's 12z GFS run continues to show a winter storm developing across the southern plains mid next week...

[flywheel02]

We NEED winter. It kills some to the insect population back, the plants get back on a normal schedule, we get much needed moisture, etc. The bulbs I planted to come up in the Spring have already come up this year! We haven't had a good Winter since the 80's. Send the cold air and snow on down

[Ed Mahmoud]

Today's 12z GFS run continues to show a winter storm developing across the southern plains mid next week...

Cold without snow is just a waste, IMHO. I don't like being cold, but I like winter weather.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

We received about 6" of wet snow around a month ago (we are keeping every snowflake that falls here) ......... but the cold I'll gladly share.

Our cold without snow will definitely take care of your insect problems (the bulbs however will need a nice warm blanket of leaves).

[Agua]

Move the ducks on down!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS continues to show a decent winter storm setting up into Oklahoma by mid next week. It is definitely encouraging to see that the model is starting to latch onto this scenario with more consistency.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 18z GFS continues to show a decent winter storm setting up into Oklahoma by mid next week. It is definitely encouraging to see that the model is starting to latch onto this scenario with more consistency.

Check the distance between the 850 mb freezing line and the 540 dm 1000-500 mb thickness line, indication of a fairly shallow cold air mass, and p-type that may be freezing/frozen, even South of the 850 mb freezing line, but maybe not snow...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS continues to show a decent winter storm setting up into Oklahoma by mid next week. It is definitely encouraging to see that the model is starting to latch onto this scenario with more consistency.

Check the distance between the 850 mb freezing line and the 540 dm 1000-500 mb thickness line, indication of a fairly shallow cold air mass, and p-type that may be freezing/frozen, even South of the 850 mb freezing line, but maybe not snow...

Yes, in the beginning that is true. However, by hour 216, the 540 line moves well south and meets up with the 0C 850mb line right over Oklahoma. This would be a great setup for snow if the surface temperatures are cold enough...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a feeling that the 00z GFS will probably look warmer than the previous runs for next week.

This run is now magically moving a strong coastal low into SW Canada during Day 5 and 6. This low was not present in any of the previous runs and kind of just popped up out of nowhere tonight. There is probably a pretty good chance that this new low will through a wrench into the winter weather scenario that we witnessed in previous runs.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE: Well, I was wrong. This new development didn't actually destroy the winter storm, it only helped to push it back a few days. The 00z GFS now shows a good blast of arctic air entering the picture mid next week, followed by the winter storm setting up next weekend as a strong 1048mb+ high pressure area comes out of Canada ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif ).

I think the bottom line is this: While the GFS will continue to go back and forth with the exact details and timing, it seems to be becoming more and more apparent that sometime within the next 5-15 days, the country will most likely experience its coldest airmass so far this autumn. Hopefully we will have more answers as we push closer and closer to next week.

[somethingfunny]

Cold is typical. Show me the moisture tap, and I'll get excited.

[Extremeweatherguy]

After a couple of warmer runs, the 12z GFS is once again showing a major shot (for November) of arctic air arriving mid next week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No snow forecast for Texas Tech vs Oklahoma game..




Looks warm for the aggies at Texas...



12Z WRF says blustery and cold (cool) for Texas at Kansas and TU at University of Houston