Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wxman57]

I like DFW's discussion. Instead of hanging on the models, they said they used experience in determining frontal passage and temps.

DFW office is currently saying "Sunny with a high in the low 50s". Models currently saying highs in the low 40s. They still don't want to go TOO far out on a limb and suggest that the high may be 10F colder. Either the cold air arrives or it doesn't. If it does (which I think is a certainty), then it'll be colder than the low 50s in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

[Portastorm]

If today's 12z GFS run verifies, it is going to be mighty cold the morning of Black Friday here in Austin. Number output is showing 28 degrees at 6 am. Bbbrrrrr!!

[southerngale]

I like DFW's discussion. Instead of hanging on the models, they said they used experience in determining frontal passage and temps.

DFW office is currently saying "Sunny with a high in the low 50s". Models currently saying highs in the low 40s. They still don't want to go TOO far out on a limb and suggest that the high may be 10F colder. Either the cold air arrives or it doesn't. If it does (which I think is a certainty), then it'll be colder than the low 50s in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

What are you thinking for down here?

Current LCH NWS forecast for my area:

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Thanksgiving Day: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.

[gboudx]

I like DFW's discussion. Instead of hanging on the models, they said they used experience in determining frontal passage and temps.

DFW office is currently saying "Sunny with a high in the low 50s". Models currently saying highs in the low 40s. They still don't want to go TOO far out on a limb and suggest that the high may be 10F colder. Either the cold air arrives or it doesn't. If it does (which I think is a certainty), then it'll be colder than the low 50s in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

It looks like a difference of forecasting between the day and night shifts, with the night shift either not willing to go along with the day shifts reasoning, or disagreeing with it. I'm interested to see what the day guys think today.

[CaptinCrunch]

I like DFW's discussion. Instead of hanging on the models, they said they used experience in determining frontal passage and temps.

DFW office is currently saying "Sunny with a high in the low 50s". Models currently saying highs in the low 40s. They still don't want to go TOO far out on a limb and suggest that the high may be 10F colder. Either the cold air arrives or it doesn't. If it does (which I think is a certainty), then it'll be colder than the low 50s in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

It looks like a difference of forecasting between the day and night shifts, with the night shift either not willing to go along with the day shifts reasoning, or disagreeing with it. I'm interested to see what the day guys think today.

Upper 40's (47H) for Thanksgiving Day with over night lows dropping into the mid to upper 20's. (for D/FW 28L)

[Ntxw]

Upper 40's (47H) for Thanksgiving Day with over night lows dropping into the mid to upper 20's. (for D/FW 28L)

I think they are still going conservative. From a personal standpoint, over time the models will adjust from climatology entrenched in their data to what's really showing at hand trending colder. It will be subzero this weekend in Montana which is typically the spot you look at to see how dense/direction the cold air bleeds during outbreaks for Texas, and this one looks legit. I believe DFW will be falling into the low 40s/30s on thanksgiving day and Houston/Austin will be heading well into the low 40s. The lows look to be about right for now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

Upper 40's (47H) for Thanksgiving Day with over night lows dropping into the mid to upper 20's. (for D/FW 28L)

I think they are still going conservative. From a personal standpoint, over time the models will adjust from climatology entrenched in their data to what's really showing at hand trending colder. It will be subzero this weekend in Montana which is typically the spot you look at to see how dense/direction the cold air bleeds during outbreaks for Texas, and this one looks legit. I believe DFW will be falling into the 30s on thanksgiving day and Houston/Austin will be heading well into the low 40s. The lows look to be about right for now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I don't think it's the models. The models ARE forecasting much colder than the NWS offices are forecasting. It's the forecasters in the offices that don't believe the model data. I believe that the Canadian/Arctic front will move faster than the models are forecasting and we'll see temps about 15 degrees colder than current NWS offices from Dallas to Lake Charles are forecasting.

[Ntxw]

I don't think it's the models. The models ARE forecasting much colder than the NWS offices are forecasting. It's the forecasters in the offices that don't believe the model data. I believe that the Canadian/Arctic front will move faster than the models are forecasting and we'll see temps about 15 degrees colder than current NWS offices from Dallas to Lake Charles are forecasting.

Yeah, they are showing colder than NWS products. I was just saying that the models themselves could trend a bit colder than what they are now. They too (I think) are having some timing issues between each other due to the dense nature of the air mass coming.

Forecast for Cut Bank, Montana right before it heads our way, talk about cold!! of course it will be modified but it's coming nonetheless.

Saturday: Snow. High near 1. Wind chill values as low as -26. North wind between 9 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around -12. Wind chill values as low as -27. North northwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0. North northwest wind around 8 mph.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around -16.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near -1. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -23.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -3.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4.

[rainman]

Some people are forgetting there is raw model output (which shows cold) and MEXMOS for gfs. MOS factors in climo and model error and is not as cold. NWS offices are going less than the MOS but warmer than the raw model output.

[Ntxw]

Well at least FW is getting better in line to what will likely happen.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 66.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

For interests, the last La Nina we had in N Tex was an interesting one wasn't it!

NWS: Thanksgiving
November 22, 2007 - A light wintry mix of sleet and snow fell during a cold afternoon. It was only the second occasion that wintry precipitation fell during a Dallas Cowboys football game (vs. New York Jets).

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. The chatter in the morning discussions from various WFO's continue the downward trend in temps...

Houston/Galveston...

THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WED NIGHT THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING THE TIMING OF WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN TRENDING SLOWER. AS
A RESULT...THESE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH.
GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST BY THU MORNING. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE ABOUT 6
HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS SUCH...I
WILL KEEP WITH THE GOING FORECAST THINKING AND STICK CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THE FORECAST. POPS OF 40 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE
RIGHT NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONT.
POSSIBLE THAT POPS COULD GO HIGHER IF THESE FORECAST TRENDS
CONTINUE.

THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY DOES LOOK TO BE COLDER AND WET FOR SE
TX. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TEMPS MAY NOT REACH THE
50S WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAIN. FOR NOW THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS GUIDANCE IN
ANTICIPATION OF A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS. MODELS DO HINT AT POST
FRONTAL RAINBANDS SETTING UP THAT CORRESPOND NICELY TO
FRONTOGENESIS AND TEMP GRADIENT AT 850MB. THE FORECAST WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN ON THANKSGIVING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE AN ISSUE IN FORECASTING FRI MORNING LOW
TEMP AS CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEXT SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE COLDER
THAN FRIDAY BUT STILL SOME TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE IN CONTRAST TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



Dallas/Ft Worth...

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DURING MIDWEEK.
00Z ANALYSIS REVEALS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 20 DEGREE
RANGE UNDERNEATH THE POLAR VORTEX IN NORTHERN CANADA. EXPECT THIS
COLD AIR TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE COLD
AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
THE GENERAL PATTERN...ALLOWING FOR A 1040 HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE THE COLD AIR BEGINS
TO RUSH SOUTHWARD...EXPECT FOR THE COLD AIR TO REACH THE RED RIVER
TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES YET THIS SEASON COULD EASILY SEE A FREEZE BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING OR FRIDAY MORNING.



Austin/San Antonio...

RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A COLD AND BLUSTERY THANKSGIVING DAY.

THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY WITH POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG CAA...CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT STRATIFORM PCPN WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

LIGHT STRATIFORM PCPN WILL END THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF OUR CWFA.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...20S
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS FCST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF...THE GEM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH A LATER FROPA. WILL GO ABOVE GFS MOS FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GFS MOS FOR HIGHS THURSDAY
BASED ON THE DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE TREND OF SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.


Norman, OK...

AFTER BEING IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MIDWEEK... THE LATEST GFS/ECWMF RUNS ARE DIVERGING ONCE
AGAIN. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH ALL OF THE CWA BY 18Z
WED... WHILE THE ECMWF... WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER... STILL
HAS IT BACK IN NW KS... A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION FROM PRIOR ECMWF
RUNS. THE TIMING DIFFERENCES RELATE TO HOW QUICKLY EACH OF THE
MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. AT THIS
POINT... WILL STILL TREND WITH THE FASTER GFS UNTIL WE SEE A FEW
MORE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.



Lubbock...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESOLVED IN THE MODELS EJECTING
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. SYNOPTIC TROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER MINOR DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND DAYTIME TEMPS...BUT
MAXIMA WILL STILL WARM SOME 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE ANTICIPATED STRONG FROPA WEDNESDAY...
WITH SUBSEQUENTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING. THE AIRMASS
NOW CENTERED AT 75 DEGREES N/127 DEGREES W...CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED
BY -30 DEGREE AIR...WILL BE DISLODGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLY...IT WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE NORTHERN/
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS A NOTABLE
WAVE EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS UA TROUGH. A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION
OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FILTER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEDNESDAY FROPA...AS THE PARENT 1040MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOL
DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES BY THURSDAY...
BUT PROGGED DRY PROFILES AND NEAR FULL INSOLATION MAY HELP TO ACTIVELY
MODERATE THE AIRMASS AND PREVENT SUB-MOS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

[vbhoutex]

Different things I am reading lead me to believe that once again the models are/will be having problems with this shallow air mass. The second kicker I see is the lack of snow cover to slow modification of the air mass as it moves South. This is obviously a bonafide Arctic event, but I am still wondering if we are going to see it as cold as it appears on some of the models. As always timing is everything as to who gets the coldest air and/or any Winter precip. Of course I am not expecting any for the SE TX area. That would be unprecedented I believe.

[wxman57]

It's just heavily-modified early-season Arctic air. I don't have any reason to disagree with model projections of highs in the 40s in SE TX Thursday or upper 30s in the Dallas area for highs Thursday. No extreme cold there, though, and no threat of freezing precip. Here's a new meteogram for north Houston. Nothing spectacular, just cloudy, cold, windy and some light rain Thursday night.



For the Dallas-Ft. Worth area, not much post-frontal precip (too dry behind front) and temps holding in the 30s on Thanksgiving according to the new GFS. Looks very reasonable:

[Ntxw]

If the EC is correct, the coldest air won't be shunted east of Texas. Right down the plains deep into the heart of Texas. In fact parts of the southeast might not get too cold with this.







I wonder what that low is doing hanging back in the lower miss valley next weekend

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Update:

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS: THE GFS HAS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY OVER
THE CONUS DAYS 3-5 BUT BECOMES A FAST OUTLIER THEREAFTER WITH THE
NEXT TROF OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. IT MARKEDLY FLATTENS THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FROM CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
FRI/SAT. THESE CONTINUITY CHANGES APPEAR EXCESSIVE.
MEANWHILE THE UKMET/CANADIAN PLAY UP A SRN SPOKE OF ENERGY WELL
BEHIND THE MAIN THANKSGIVING GREAT LAKES LOW...WITH THE
CANADIAN/UKMET HAVING DECENT CONTINUITY FOR THIS SRN STREAM
FEATURE. BOTH THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN ARE SLOWER TO
BRING THE MAIN RIDGE INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEW
12Z ECMWF ...LIKE THE CANADIAN AND UKMET...IS PLAYING UP A STRONG
LOBE OF VORTICITY SWINGING THRU THE SWRN STATES ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. IF CORRECT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE FRONT
TO RETARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THU/FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY A
BAND OF OVERRUNNING PCPN N OF THE FRONT.

ONE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
THE AMPLIFIED TROF/SURFACE SYS CROSSING THE NE CORNER OF THE
CONUS DURING DAY 5...THANKSGIVING. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT COOLING WELL DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES IN ITS WAKE. N
OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK...A GOOD SWATH OF SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLUSTERY WINDS THU
INTO MUCH OF FRI. UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND OVER
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGE SCALE PACIFIC TROF.
A COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THAT BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SYS... THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF LEAVE ENOUGH ENERGY BEHIND
OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRI DAY 6 TO SUPPORT A FLAT WAVE WITH
OVERRUNNING PCPN ALONG THE W GULF COAST. WHILE EARLIER DOWNPLAYING
THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT....IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY....NOW THAT THE
12Z/20 ECMWF HAS A WAVY SCENARIO ACROSS THE GULF STATES FRI-SAT. I
WOULD OFFER MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SOME KIND OF WAVE WITH
OVERRUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THU AND SAT ALONG THE GULF
COAST.

[wxman57]

I think that the Euro may be too slow with the cold air. Common mistake - holding back cold, dense air waiting for the upper flow to become northwesterly. The cold air just sinks straight south, even with upper winds coming straight out of the south overhead.

[kb75007]

When is this cold air expected to arrive? I've noticed some of you on here are saying maybe highs in the 30's for Dallas on thursday or friday but weather.com is saying high 50 and sunny on Thanksgiving. Also, the news is saying high 47. No one really seems to have a grip on what is going to happen. Is this front going to have moisture coming in behind it at all? Or does it look like just sunny or cloudy skies? Whats the latest on this front?! Im hoping for

[ravyrn]

When is this cold air expected to arrive? I've noticed some of you on here are saying maybe highs in the 30's for Dallas on thursday or friday but weather.com is saying high 50 and sunny on Thanksgiving. Also, the news is saying high 47. No one really seems to have a grip on what is going to happen. Is this front going to have moisture coming in behind it at all? Or does it look like just sunny or cloudy skies? Whats the latest on this front?! Im hoping for

For the Dallas-Ft. Worth area, not much post-frontal precip (too dry behind front) and temps holding in the 30s on Thanksgiving according to the new GFS. Looks very reasonable:

The answer to your question is just a few posts up.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon discussion highlights from across TX/OK...

Houston/Galveston...

MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE SOLIDIFYING AROUND A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...KEEPING UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY GREATER AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS MID WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN ERODING THE FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER BUT EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE STREAMER SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THE CAP.

COLD FRONT NOW APPEARS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON
THANKSGIVING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER
AIR TO THE REGION. DESPITE SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE
FRONT EXPECT THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE EVEN COOLER...WITH MOST INLAND AREAS IN THE 30S
AND THE NORTHER HALF OF THE AREA SEEING BRIEF PERIODS BELOW
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY SUNDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

Norman, OK...

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG CHALLENGE THIS WEEK. STRONG
SURFACE FRONT IS NOW ACROSS CO/KS... AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR N THROUGH MONDAY. THUS AT LEAST ONE MORE MILD-
TO-WARM DAY ON MONDAY. UPPER LOW NOW OVER NV WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
NE INTO THE N PLAINS... AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SFC PRESSURE
RISES IN ITS WAKE TO NUDGE THE FRONT BACK S INTO THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUE. HOW FAR S IS HARD TO ASSESS... BUT THIS IS A
REASONABLY-POTENT COLD AIR MASS WITH 20Z TEMPS STILL BELOW ZERO
IN MT. THE TENDENCY USUALLY IS FOR THIS KIND OF COLD AIR TO MOVE S
MORE FREELY THAN IS OFTEN INDICATED BY THE MODELS... AND THEN TO
BE MORE STUBBORN TO LEAVE ONCE IT ARRIVES. THIS WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING IN PARTS OF NW OK WHERE IT TOOK DIURNAL MIXING TO FINALLY
SWEEP IT OUT WELL AFTER 12Z. FOR THIS FORECAST WE WILL GO WITH THE
FLOW... NO PUN INTENDED... AND KEEP THE LOWS MON NIGHT AND THE
HIGHS TUE WITHIN TOLERANCE OF NEIGHTBORING VALUES. BUT WATCHING
WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS - DENVER FELL
FROM THE 50S INTO THE 20S IN 2 HRS THIS MORNING WHEN THE FRONT
SLIPPED S - THERE REMAINS A LOT OF CAUTION AND SKEPTICISM HERE AS
TO WHETHER ANY OF THE MODELS ARE GOING TO HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FRONT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE 70S CLOSE TO
40S SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

SIMILAR DOUBTS PERSIST TUE NIGHT AND WED... BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SHOW THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD-AIR INVASION WED NIGHT. THUS WE ARE COMPELLED TO FOLLOW THE
CONSENSUS AND WARM WEDNESDAY UP CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE ABRUPT TRANSITION FROM
UNSEASONABLY MILD TO BRUTAL COLD MORE LIKELY WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING... RATHER THAN DURING THE DAY
OR EVENING WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH WE ALSO WILL BACK OFF A LITTLE ON
THE LOWS WED NIGHT... BUT THU AND THU NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY
COLD WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S ON THANKSGIVING. GRADUAL
MODIFICATION OF TEMPS IS LIKELY GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER
FLOW PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND COLD AIR SLOWLY MODIFIES WITH S
WINDS RETURNING.



Lubbock...

.LONG TERM...
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE
FCST AREA. 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DELAY ENTRY WITH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z THURSDAY. PROGGED POSITION OF THE FRONT AT 00Z THURSDAY
ON THE WRF-NAM WOULD SUPPORT SIMILAR TIMING WITH 06Z DGEX IN
SUPPORT. RELEASE OF THE COLD AIR DEPENDENT ON EJECTION OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SO UNCERTAINTY
STILL FAIRLY LARGE BUT WILL PUSH FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THIS TIMING.
AS A RESULT WILL HAVE TO PUSH HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY UP CONSIDERABLY
AS WELL AS NUDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS UP SOME.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING TUESDAY /AND LOOKING LIKE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL/ WITH THE COLDEST DAY BEING THURSDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. FRIDAY MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED GIVEN SLOWER ENTRANCE OF THE COLD AIR...BUT IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN EXTENDED STAY FOR THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT TAKING SWIFT AIM ON THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AND WINDS VEER TO SW.



Dallas/Ft Worth...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NW CONUS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NW CONUS UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND THUS THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER AS WELL. THIS WILL PUT THE FRONT INTO NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND
THUS THE CHANCE OF RAIN ALSO LOOKS BETTER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY EVENING WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
LIMITED A BIT BY CONTINUING NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT STILL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAPID MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS OCCURS BY NEXT WEEKEND
THANKS TO THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.


San Angelo...

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S...LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST
CWFA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MAJOR CHANGE IN STORE LATE THIS
WEEK AS FIRST ARCTIC AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES. CURRENT
NORTH AMERICAN SURFACE MAP INDICATES AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TERR WITH TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -25. THIS VERY COLD AIR
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK...AND THEN BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE HELP
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A DAY ON MOVING THE
COLD AIR INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NO DOUBT
THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED SOME...HOWEVER COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTY TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.


Austin/San Antonio...

THE THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY LITTLE
MODIFICATION FROM THE CANADIAN ORIGIN...MEANING THE COLDEST AIR SO
FAR THIS SEASON AND VERY DRY DEW POINTS. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WERE TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE HAD.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLY A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AND DRIZZLE FOR NEXT SUNDAY
MORNING.



Corpus Christi...

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE PLAINS THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO ENTER TEXAS. MUCH OF
THE POLAR AIR (BASED ON THE POLAR JET) WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CWA/MSA.
YET...SHALLOW (GFS THETA/THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS) COLD AIR WILL ENTER
THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT. OWING TO INCREASING MSTR/INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FCST OF SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THEN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY NEAR/ALONG
THE FRONT. AFTER FROPA...MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCA
(POSSIBLY GALE) CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. OWING TO THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF THE FRONT...AND BASED ON GFS/ECMWF ISENTROPIC
PATTERN...ANTICIPATE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA...ESPECIALLY
BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING SUNDAY. WILL RETAIN FCST OF LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY. YET WILL NOT
INTRODUCE PCPN SATURDAY/SUNDAY OWING TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. COLDEST MIN TEMPS EXPECTED SATURDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY OWING TO THE EXPECTATION OF COLD AIR TRAPPED UNDER
FRONTAL INVERSION/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.



Brownsville...

.LONG TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH WARMTH MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER AND
EARLY OCTOBER THAN MID NOVEMBER...BUT END WITH SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS NOW COMING INTO
FOCUS IN THE DAY 4/5 PERIOD. RESIDENTS WITH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
PLANS WILL NEED A VARIETY OF CLOTHING TO COVER EVERYTHING FROM
SUMMER LIKE HEAT TO WINTER LIKE WIND CHILL.

FOR TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE IN THE
WINDY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN SEABOARD...LEAVING A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE MORNING WILL DAWN OVERCAST...AND
THE LIGHTER WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
KING RANCH MAY ALLOW THE CEILING TO FALL BELOW 400 FEET...CAUSING
PATCHY `FUZZY` FOG IN THESE AREAS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES BUT MORNING RISES WILL BE LESS THAN THOSE
TODAY AND MONDAY.

BY AFTERNOON...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN MANY
AREAS...WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WESTERN HIDALGO/BROOKS
COUNTY TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY SHOW ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A HAIR LOWER THAN ON MONDAY IN ALL AREAS.

THE REPRIEVE FROM THE WIND ENDS QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET REDEVELOPS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AS MICRO-RIDGE ALOFT SLIDES EAST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN NORTHEAST TO TEH UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AIDS SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDS AND
REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS LOWS LIKELY
STAY ABOVE 70 FOR ALL BUT THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

WINDY AND VERY WARM WEDNESDAY AS 1003 MB LOW IN THE LEE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE FOCUSES THE STRONG SOUTHERLIES. MAY GET CLOSE TO
TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED AT 24
KNOTS BETWEN 18 AND 21Z. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES REACHING 579
DECAMETERS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR ALLOWED
TO MIX THROUGH THE COLUMN AND HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE
THREATENED IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED AT 90 IN
THE WESTERN LOWER VALLEY...MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE WARMEST OF ALL IN THE LOWER VALLEY WITH
A WARM STARTING POINT AND CONTINUED MIXING IN PERSISTENT GRADIENT
NEAR THE COAST. BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT FOR GREAT OUTDOOR
THANKSGIVING WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DROP JUST A LITTLE AS TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AFTER PERHAPS STRATUS REFORMING EARLY. HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90 ONCE AGAIN...AND IT COULD BE HOTTER STILL
THOUGH LATE NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE SHOULD MITIGATE TOO MUCH HEATING
DESPITE REGION BEING IN THE WARMEST ZONE IN THE COLL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG COLD...YES
COLD...FRONT SWEEPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 OR 4 AM. OF COURSE THAT TIMING WILL LIKELY
CHANGE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE
INCREASING BASED ON OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM AND NOGAPS. GFS RAW 2 M TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
PRODIGIOUSLY BY DAYBREAK...AND COMBINED WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS IT
WILL FEEL LIKE 35 TO 40 IN MANY AREAS TO BEGIN `BLACK FRIDAY`.

AS FOR THAT DAY ITSELF...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS UNDER LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY END BUT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SOUTH/EAST WITH SOME CLEARING NORTH AND WEST BEFORE SUNSET. RAW
GFS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND IF CLOUDS ONLY
LIFT RATHER THAN DISSIPATE THESE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO DAYTIME
HIGHS. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST NUDGED VALUES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
50S SOUTHEAST AND RISEN FROM THE LOWER 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSISTING THE FRONT SWINGS EAST...LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTH TO WEST BEFORE 850-700 MB FLOW GOES
VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY (850) INTO SATURDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS SIGNIFIES ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
QUICK CLEARING BEHIND IT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY. DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY...SO ANY LIGHT RAIN
WILL QUICKLY DRY UP.

A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN. GFS/ECMWF
HINTING AT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO SOME OF THEIR LOWEST READINGS OF
THE SEASON SATURDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SATURDAY MAY REMAIN
COOL-ISH ESPECIALLY IF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARRIVE UNDERNEATH THE
INVERSION. SUNDAY LOOKS NOW LIKE A CLEAN FINISH TO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE DIMMED BY IN AND OUT
STRATOCUMULUS AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

[ludosc]

I am heading to Austin on Thursday for the Texas-Texas A&M game, which starts at 7 PM on Thursday (Hook Em Horns)...what should I expect as far as temps go that evening. Weather Underground currently calls for a high of 63, which flies in the face of what most of yall are saying regarding the weather.

Any info would be much appreciated...thanks...