Mega Nor'easter slams NE States: Web Cams from area posted

[Stephanie]

It's BACK!!

GFS 12 UTC 60 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

GFS 12 UTC 66 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml

GFS 12 UTC 72 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[cycloneye]

12z GFS much more west!!

Yes Steph!!!.

[Steve H.]

WOAH! 12Z GFS further west! Gets Gotham city and some of the other mega-opoli!!!

[cycloneye]

But,let's wait for the other models,especially the ECMWF, to see if they follow this surprise by GFS.

[srainhoutx]

RGEM and GEM are trending toward the GSF solution.

[srainhoutx]

Additional RECON now scheduled...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241615
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EST FRI 24 DECEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z DECEMBER 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-024

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A65/ DROP 14 (29.0N 89.0W)/ 26/0000Z
B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK65
C. 25/1545Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED PLUS 4 ADDITIONAL
EQUALLY-SPACED ONES OVER GULF OF MEXICO
ON TRACK FOR A TOTAL OF 14.
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/0200Z

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. A64/ DROP 12 (30.3N 75.0W)/ 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 06WSA TRACK64
C. 26/0515Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS ADDITIONAL
ONES BETWEEN ORIGINAL DROPS 1 AND 2 AND
ORIGINAL DROPS 9 AND 10 FOR A TOTAL OF 12.
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TASKING REQUIREMENT IN WSPOD 10-023 NOW
CHANGED TO A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 25/1200Z WITH
TAKEOFF TIME OF 25/0700Z.
SEF

[cycloneye]

Additional RECON now scheduled...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241615
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EST FRI 24 DECEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z DECEMBER 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-024

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A65/ DROP 14 (29.0N 89.0W)/ 26/0000Z
B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK65
C. 25/1545Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED PLUS 4 ADDITIONAL
EQUALLY-SPACED ONES OVER GULF OF MEXICO
ON TRACK FOR A TOTAL OF 14.
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/0200Z

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. A64/ DROP 12 (30.3N 75.0W)/ 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 06WSA TRACK64
C. 26/0515Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS ADDITIONAL
ONES BETWEEN ORIGINAL DROPS 1 AND 2 AND
ORIGINAL DROPS 9 AND 10 FOR A TOTAL OF 12.
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TASKING REQUIREMENT IN WSPOD 10-023 NOW
CHANGED TO A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 25/1200Z WITH
TAKEOFF TIME OF 25/0700Z.
SEF

Hmmm,a very interesting development,that may mean,they may see this as a serious threat for the big cities.

[ronjon]

12Z GFS a real shocker as it looked as though guidance was trending more offshore. Perhaps the Euros runs the last few days will come true. Be watching the models intently as we're flying into BWI tomorrow afternoon. I also noticed that the GFS slows the storm way down east of Delaware and south of Long Island - just meanders about for 12 to 24 hrs.

[Stephanie]

Have a safe flight ronjon!

[Stephanie]

12Z GFS a real shocker as it looked as though guidance was trending more offshore. Perhaps the Euros runs the last few days will come true. Be watching the models intently as we're flying into BWI tomorrow afternoon. I also noticed that the GFS slows the storm way down east of Delaware and south of Long Island - just meanders about for 12 to 24 hrs.

Which means SE PA, DE NJ & NYC get pummeled!

[Raebie]

What does it mean for the Carolinas? TIA

[CronkPSU]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC
QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN
BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY
RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC
PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH
THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME
MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.
THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES
NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.

[CronkPSU]

euro misses the US completely...way off shore

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET does not budge west at all. GFS is now the outlier to the west.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is also east of GFS,but throws a pretty dose of snow and wind to Rhode Island,Eastern Mass and Maine.

[cycloneye]

The Boston NWS is not caving on the west shift by GFS,as they are still in the uncertain camp regarding track.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING DRY COLD WEATHER THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE SUBSEQUENT
PATH OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT MOST OF THE POSSIBLE
PATHS WOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS
* POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM
AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE
HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS
WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE
BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM
HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS
MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE
THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO
THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO
WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES.


SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE TO PERSIST AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA BUT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT IN RECENT RUNS OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...AND RIDGING OVER A PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THESE TWO SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. INITIALIZATION LOOKED FAIRLY
GOOD EXCEPT THE 00Z GFS HANDLING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW LESS PROGRESSIVE AND ON THE
WESTERN ENVELOPE OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. THE 00Z UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM
CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE SE OF THE BENCHMARK LATE SUNDAY. THE
00Z AND 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE OFFSHORE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...TRACKING JUST SE OF THE BENCHMARK
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. IT IS FAIRLY WELL REPRESENTED BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW ABOUT
6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
PHASING ISSUES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET
STREAM. OVERALL DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z HPC/00Z GFS
AND THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z ECMWF. THIS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK POSITION APPROACHING 00Z MONDAY...THEN QUICKLY
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. ATTM THIS APPEARS TO PRIMARILY
BE FOCUSED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. IT APPEARS THAT EVEN WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW TRACK...THE
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE NEARBY COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION/DEFORMATION ZONE BANDING WILL LIKELY REACH A PORTION
OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SE OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS INLAND.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST SREF AND MOS GUIDANCE TO DERIVE POPS.

AS MENTIONED STRONG WIND MAY ACCOMPANY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST AS THE DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM DEEPENS. DID CAP WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF STORM TRACK...BUT AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS
POINT...AS WE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY FROM THIS POTENTIAL
EVENT. A LOW TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST WOULD CONFINE THE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THREAT TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND A LOW TRACK FURTHER WEST
WOULD BRING THIS THREAT TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND
IMPACT...BUT SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR WINTER STORM WATCHES AND/OR
WIND ADVISORIES/HIGH WIND WATCHES BEING HOISTED THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL AREAL IMPACT...STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO MULL
OVER FUTURE MODEL DATA TO REFINE THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

[ronjon]

18Z still similar to 12Z run - major east coast blizzard.

[MGC]

Just read on CNN that lots of airline flights are being cancelled this weekend in anticipation of a major winter storm in the eastern US. Delta alone has cancelled 500 flights......MGC

[angelwing]

????? WTH, the 27th??? SE PA gets slammed?

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= A quake has occured in Puerto Rico,epicenter inside the island.I felt it real good as the PC skaked and the chair moved a lot.See the details at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Thread.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2100721#p2100721