My SOUTHERN snow weenies TX to FL -- this is for you...

[yoda]

I have heard of the possibility of it coming and giving the MA some snow... is this possible for DCA?

Eastern NC, VA, perhaps the Delmarva, but I don't think it gets as far west as the 12z/20 GFS indicated.

The synoptic setup ensures (assuming the EC is right) that this event is almost exclusively a SE event. So much so that as i said FL may get in on SOME frozen precip.

Hmmm, interesting. DT said that there would likely be no snow north of the mason-Dixon line anyway from this storm IF it materializes. Would you agree?

Eastern VA? Sorry to ask... but how far north would that go? I live in Eastern VA...

[Scorpion]

A good cold rain and temps in the 50's is good enough to put me in the Christmas spirit .

[wxguy25]

I have heard of the possibility of it coming and giving the MA some snow... is this possible for DCA?

Eastern NC, VA, perhaps the Delmarva, but I don't think it gets as far west as the 12z/20 GFS indicated.

The synoptic setup ensures (assuming the EC is right) that this event is almost exclusively a SE event. So much so that as i said FL may get in on SOME frozen precip.

Hmmm, interesting. DT said that there would likely be no snow north of the mason-Dixon line anyway from this storm IF it materializes. Would you agree?

Eastern VA? Sorry to ask... but how far north would that go? I live in Eastern VA...

Southeast of you. And on this one I happen to agree w/ him.

[GAStorm]

I hope I'm wrong, but my gut says this is another 1989....when Savannah, Charleston, and the North Carolina Outer Banks experienced a white Christmas, and thick ice coated the bridges over the St John's in downtown Jacksonville....but here in Atlanta, we shivered in single digit temps, but not enough snow fell to make a snowball (0.2" at my location

FYI...the Florida snowstorm you mentioned occurred in February 1958, when over 2" of snow accumilated in the St Augustine area and much of northern Florida.

I will never forget '89. We saw a dusting of snow which was nice, but I was really jealous when northern FL got about 7 inches of snow! I would be happy if we get a light accumulation since the models didn't have a storm at all yesterday .

[jeff]

****Significant snowstorm possible Christmas Eve and Day from along the Gulf coast from E TX to the ATL coast.****

Million dollar question is where does SE TX lie in the whole mess????

Latest guidance is showing even colder conditions for Thursday and Christmas Eve. Highs in the upper 30's may have to be undercut by 3-5 degrees. 850mb temps. are in the -3 to -7 degree range over the area and the GFS profile is frozen from the surface upward. 540m thickness line is along the coast and then pushes offshore early Thursday. We would clearly support snow, but will we have enough moisture to produce anything??

Setup:

Strong low over southern Canada will eject SE over the next 48 hours curving out a deep polar trough over the US. Very cold arctic air will pour southward entering TX late Tuesday and blowing off the coast by midday Wed. Temps will tumble behind the front to the freezing mark by late Wed. over SE TX.

Short wave will ride the trough into the SW US on by early Thursday with moisture increasing over the area. Models prog coastal trough formation over the western Gulf, but differ on the location. This trough along with dynamical lifting from the short wave bring the area a shot of precip. from Thursday afternoon through Friday midday. If the coastal trough forms closer to the area (near the coastal bend) we will have plenty of moisture and Houston as well as most of the area will see accumulating snow. If it forms further to the south near Brownsville moisture will be limited and the chances of winter precip. drop off very quickly. Still to early to get fancy with P-type and any expected accumulations in the forecast, but be aware of the potential and possible travel problems.

Gulf coast east of SE TX:

It appears a significant snowstorm will develop from SW LA to GA with snow all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. If the forecast verifies it will easily be a record breaking event. Interstate closures and airport closures can be expected Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

As with any frozen precip. event in the south the forecast confidence is extremely low. Will await the next model runs and see what they have to say for us here in SE TX.

Jeff L

[wxguy25]

Good discussion, Jeff.

[jeff]

wxguy,

What do you think for SE TX. I am pressed with the moisture. I am biased toward the event anyway, but indications are more to our east from C LA eastward.

I was burned bad on Dec 31st 2001 expecting 2.0 inches to start the new year and will not fall into that trap again. We had IP for 2 minutes and that was it.

JL

[Kennethb]

Be careful about the jinx of forecasting snow here in south Louisiana. Here in Baton Rouge I can recall about 7 times it has snowed: 1968, 1973 (twice), 1977 (trace), 1979 (trace), 1985 (dusting), 1988 (twice in three days), 1993, and 2001. The average is for its to snow one in every ten years. Since the last time it snowed was 2001, we are not due until 2011.

Only twice, the first snow of 1973 and the New Year's snow of 2001 was it ever forecasted. On the other hand many times it has been predicted and never panned out, the latest in December of 1997. The 1968 snow was over two days around March 19-20!

The second snow of 1988 was the only time, other than dustings, that it began and ended as snow. Our most favorable condition is a weak low. Not too strong, moving ENE. Too much NE brings in too much warm air. Too much E pulls the moisture away. Most snow here will begin as rain or freezing rain and transition to sleet and then snow as the profile gets colder.

Over the years I have gotten too excited only to be let down too many times. But then again let it snow!!

[wxguy25]

wxguy,

What do you think for SE TX. I am pressed with the moisture. I am biased toward the event anyway, but indications are more to our east from C LA eastward.

I was burned bad on Dec 31st 2001 expecting 2.0 inches to start the new year and will not fall into that trap again. We had IP for 2 minutes and that was it.

JL

Im guilty of hyping it already.

For southeast TX, I think areas near the coast and closest to the LA border will see the most QPF. I don’t think the Heavy precip will extend much further west from the coast since the best UVM looks to stay off the coast at this point until you get into SE LA, MS, AL and eventually FL.

Then again the GFS is notoriously too cold and thusly may be suppressing things too much since it can’t handle the STJ, but the ECMWF (12z/ 12-20) seems to develop the low in the same place lending credence to the GFS ideas but is stronger w/ the STJ s/w and actually develops a closed low at h5.

Personally I prefer the ECMWF since it has a superior handling of the STJ.

The UKMET 12z has no sign of it though

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

[LAwxrgal]

wxguy,

What do you think for SE TX. I am pressed with the moisture. I am biased toward the event anyway, but indications are more to our east from C LA eastward.

I was burned bad on Dec 31st 2001 expecting 2.0 inches to start the new year and will not fall into that trap again. We had IP for 2 minutes and that was it.

JL

Im guilty of hyping it already.

For southeast TX, I think areas near the coast and closest to the LA border will see the most QPF. I don’t think the Heavy precip will extend much further west from the coast since the best UVM looks to stay off the coast at this point until you get into SE LA, MS, AL and eventually FL.

Then again the GFS is notoriously too cold and thusly may be suppressing things too much since it can’t handle the STJ, but the ECMWF (12z/ 12-20) seems to develop the low in the same place lending credence to the GFS ideas but is stronger w/ the STJ s/w and actually develops a closed low at h5.

Personally I prefer the ECMWF since it has a superior handling of the STJ.

The UKMET 12z has no sign of it though

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

I'm in SELA, near New Orleans...guess it's just too early to say at this point. *sigh*

*but praying*

[wxguy25]

wxguy,

What do you think for SE TX. I am pressed with the moisture. I am biased toward the event anyway, but indications are more to our east from C LA eastward.

I was burned bad on Dec 31st 2001 expecting 2.0 inches to start the new year and will not fall into that trap again. We had IP for 2 minutes and that was it.

JL

Im guilty of hyping it already.

For southeast TX, I think areas near the coast and closest to the LA border will see the most QPF. I don’t think the Heavy precip will extend much further west from the coast since the best UVM looks to stay off the coast at this point until you get into SE LA, MS, AL and eventually FL.

Then again the GFS is notoriously too cold and thusly may be suppressing things too much since it can’t handle the STJ, but the ECMWF (12z/ 12-20) seems to develop the low in the same place lending credence to the GFS ideas but is stronger w/ the STJ s/w and actually develops a closed low at h5.

Personally I prefer the ECMWF since it has a superior handling of the STJ.

The UKMET 12z has no sign of it though

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

I'm in SELA, near New Orleans...guess it's just too early to say at this point. *sigh*

*but praying*

never thought I'd say this but Significant snowfall seems to be a real possibility.

[Huckster]

wxguy,

What do you think for SE TX. I am pressed with the moisture. I am biased toward the event anyway, but indications are more to our east from C LA eastward.

I was burned bad on Dec 31st 2001 expecting 2.0 inches to start the new year and will not fall into that trap again. We had IP for 2 minutes and that was it.

JL

Im guilty of hyping it already.

For southeast TX, I think areas near the coast and closest to the LA border will see the most QPF. I don’t think the Heavy precip will extend much further west from the coast since the best UVM looks to stay off the coast at this point until you get into SE LA, MS, AL and eventually FL.

Then again the GFS is notoriously too cold and thusly may be suppressing things too much since it can’t handle the STJ, but the ECMWF (12z/ 12-20) seems to develop the low in the same place lending credence to the GFS ideas but is stronger w/ the STJ s/w and actually develops a closed low at h5.

Personally I prefer the ECMWF since it has a superior handling of the STJ.

The UKMET 12z has no sign of it though

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

I'm in SELA, near New Orleans...guess it's just too early to say at this point. *sigh*

*but praying*

never thought I'd say this but Significant snowfall seems to be a real possibility.

wxguy25, what would be your guess as to accumulation amounts? I know that's difficult to forecast, especially this far out, since it might not even materialize. But, given the current data, what would be your guess, and where do you think the maximum amounts of snow would fall? How much across south LA?

[Anonymous]

Wxguy25, a question:


I'm not sure about the southeastern winterstorm threat at the moment. The 12z Euro h85 tmps still have eastern SC/GA above 0C on X'mas day. A bit strange to me why they would expect snow with temps above 0c at 850- seems to me the trough and the coldest air will be further west across Texas East to Alabama, but not coastal SC/GA:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif


how about the 0z Euro showing a pretty sharp SW flow along the east US, with the 564DM line running from south TX through west SC on X'mas day ?? Would this scenario really support snow, or am I missing something ? Or maybe these models are not seeing something yet ?

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... _0500.html

[Lindaloo]

WOO HOO!!

[wxguy25]

wxguy,

What do you think for SE TX. I am pressed with the moisture. I am biased toward the event anyway, but indications are more to our east from C LA eastward.

I was burned bad on Dec 31st 2001 expecting 2.0 inches to start the new year and will not fall into that trap again. We had IP for 2 minutes and that was it.

JL

Im guilty of hyping it already.

For southeast TX, I think areas near the coast and closest to the LA border will see the most QPF. I don’t think the Heavy precip will extend much further west from the coast since the best UVM looks to stay off the coast at this point until you get into SE LA, MS, AL and eventually FL.

Then again the GFS is notoriously too cold and thusly may be suppressing things too much since it can’t handle the STJ, but the ECMWF (12z/ 12-20) seems to develop the low in the same place lending credence to the GFS ideas but is stronger w/ the STJ s/w and actually develops a closed low at h5.

Personally I prefer the ECMWF since it has a superior handling of the STJ.

The UKMET 12z has no sign of it though

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

I'm in SELA, near New Orleans...guess it's just too early to say at this point. *sigh*

*but praying*

never thought I'd say this but Significant snowfall seems to be a real possibility.

wxguy25, what would be your guess as to accumulation amounts? I know that's difficult to forecast, especially this far out, since it might not even materialize. But, given the current data, what would be your guess, and where do you think the maximum amounts of snow would fall? How much across south LA?

Given the high demand, I'll have a VERY....VERY preliminary map on the details out early tomorrow morning.

I also have an Ohio valley and lakes event to worry about. Since its first up, most of my attention will go to that in the short term. Its outcome however, could affect how the gulf system develops.

[Jagno]

Okay Nawlins, have you guys forgotten about us directly across the state to your west? We want some sneaux too. Please share with Lake Charles. Like SE Texas, we aren't hearing hardly anything. Please let us know what you expect for our area. I'm about 35 minutes east of Beaumont and 2 1/2 hours west of New Orleans(if we drive the speed limit).

[wxguy25]

Wxguy25, a question:


I'm not sure about the southeastern winterstorm threat at the moment. The 12z Euro h85 tmps still have eastern SC/GA above 0C on X'mas day. A bit strange to me why they would expect snow with temps above 0c at 850- seems to me the trough and the coldest air will be further west across Texas East to Alabama, but not coastal SC/GA:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif


how about the 0z Euro showing a pretty sharp SW flow along the east US, with the 564DM line running from south TX through west SC on X'mas day ?? Would this scenario really support snow, or am I missing something ? Or maybe these models are not seeing something yet ?

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... _0500.html

If the big high was not there and remaining in place I would agree. Aside from the always cold GFS, the other models can underestimate the amount of cold air present in CAD situations. This MAY be one of them. The EC could be right WRT that, but I’m skeptical for now.

[Stormsfury]

Taking the 12z ECMWF at face value, snowstorm cancel, even the Southeast US with 850mb temperatures running ABV 0ºC at Day 7 with good moisture ... 850mb temperatures ARE cold enough Days 5 and 6 across much of the Southland from SC LA, northeastward through most of MS, the northern half of AL, GA, and SC ... but LACKS any 850mb RH's ... really suppresses all the deepest moisture away from the GOM, and the best moisture runs from Florida, E GA, E SC, and E NC...

The Day 8-10 average implies that the system somehow remains enough in the vicinity to cutoff a bit BASED solely on the averages ... but the day 8 has a slow moving offshore low which gradually shears out but leaves a basin wide trough from the Gulf States through the Western Atlantic on the Southern Stream, with a very fast northern flow ...

Skeptical of the 18z GFS run as well, with a full latitude trough and some evidence of phasing being depicted with a positively tilted trough ... again, no mystery that I absolutely despise the 18z GFS model run.

Back to the 12z ECMWF which seems to substantially contradict itself with a cutoff low at the 500mb level over SE LA on Day 5, running eastward on Day 6 without any moisture entrainment upon itself except on a SW/NE flow aloft ...

The HIGH itself is normally in a decent position for a CAD situation, but again at FACE value, the EC doesn't show any signs of an AG component with a strong orientation of a NE to SW flow (part of this flow from the ATL waters) ...

Basically speaking, the EC really poo-poos on the idea of a GOM/SE US snowstorm, despite certain features in pretty good shape for an event ... but a Coastal SE US ICESTORM would be possible given the undercutting cold air at the SFC WRT to the 1030's MB arctic high ...

SF

[Wnghs2007]

Im not getting excited....YET.....Remember just yesterday the models had lost it.....Im not going to start pulling what little hair I have left out.....After I pulled most of it out yesterday.

[Guest]

Im not getting excited....YET.....Remember just yesterday the models had lost it.....Im not going to start pulling what little hair I have left out.....After I pulled most of it out yesterday.

KC, settle down. You will get your .... RAIN! LOL