Is the 12z Euro out yet?

#61 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:39 pm

It is now strikingly similar to the 12Z Euro with a phased solution, only slightly further east. QPF amounts look lower but if verified, it would be a very nice snowfall for the Mid Atlantic.

Updated QPF for slightly later time to depict New England blizzard.

krysof · #62 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:40 pm

It goes from no moisture in the 12z run to dark green moisture for my area. It is significantly closer to the coast.

jkt21787 · #63 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:43 pm

This is definitely following in the Euro's footsteps, still further east though. The QPF would give a significant snow for the mid-atlantic, and even decent snows for the northeast, especially along the coast. Keep in mind the GFS east bias though.

I think the East Coast is setting up for a MECS this weekend, just in time for the game!

Anonymous · #64 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:44 pm

Yes this is finally starting to look good again! especially for philly! (8-12) RIGHT IN TIME FOR THE EAGLES!!! CAN YOU SAY SNOWBOWL 2005???!!!

krysof · #65 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:57 pm

Different weather stations all have this potential snow threat.

Anonymous · #66 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:58 pm

krysof wrote:Different weather stations all have this potential snow threat.

Like who? (looks like we spoke too early about no snow for us in nj and pa)

QCWx · #67 Postby **QCWx** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:11 pm

This could be a paralyzing storm for areas west of 77 in north carolina as the euro never brings those areas above freezing.

Chris the Weather Man · #68 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:39 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
yoda wrote:
krysof wrote:is that 1-3 inches or feet of snow?

1-3 FEET.

Yes. Feet.

Whats also GREAT for DCA-PHL is the fact that the SLP area gets hung up near the VA capes as it bombs out. this is PERFECT position for those cities.

it was the same case in 1996.

BUT the thing is here the STJ s/w would have to come out ahead of the PJ s/w in oder for there to be a major phasing episode. Otherwise the PJ s/w will crush the STJ energy the northern stream features will remain dominant. So on that front I agree w/ Purdue.

IF we get the ghost of 1996, here, I would be in heaven....... Over 30" of snow....

krysof · #69 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:31 pm

I can't wait for the newest models!

Garrettj · #70 Postby **Garrettj** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:37 pm

im with you on that one, im ready for the new models, how much would be predicted for RICHMOND, VA? looks like we are right in the heart of the storm, few people are predicting 1-2 feet, any takes on this?

Website · #71 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:42 pm

Garrettj wrote:im with you on that one, im ready for the new models, how much would be predicted for RICHMOND, VA? looks like we are right in the heart of the storm, few people are predicting 1-2 feet, any takes on this?

Predicting snow totals for a storm 6-7 days out is IMPOSSIBLE to do. That's just what would happen if that one model run was right. Don't take it as a solid prediction.

krysof · #72 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:43 pm

1-2 feet would be possible for a widespread area on the coast depending on the size of the storm. Even if it goes far offshore, the stretch of precipitation will reach to the coasts with heavy snow. I can't wait!

Garrettj · #73 Postby **Garrettj** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:53 pm

it is forecasted in richmond to be snowing from wednesday to sunday, so thats why i have heard predictions already

krysof · #74 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:55 pm

I hope this storm effects us here in southern new england. I live in central nj and he have lucked out on many coastal storms.

Website · #75 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 10:03 pm

krysof wrote:I hope this storm effects us here in southern new england. I live in central nj and he have lucked out on many coastal storms.

We know already. :wink:

krysof · #76 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 10:09 pm

NOT everyone knows where I live or my location.

#77 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 1:50 pm

New Euro has northern system stronger (more phasing of vorticity/energy) with secondary low forming in coast plain of Carolinas then paralleling the coast...would be close call, IF it verifies, in major cities. There'd be blizzard or near blizzard conditions and whiteouts in northern plains, great lakes and Ohio Valley before phasing along east coast. Major cities of Minneapolis, Madison (not major, but where I'll be

), Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit in Midwest/Lakes would see a solid 6-10" easily with many areas over a foot in the heart of the WAA and then deformation, where they cross...this would especially be true considering snow:liquid ratios in the cold air behind the low. According to the Euro, Chicago and Detroit would be in the warm sector for a bit, so snow totals could be much less there, but it's much too far out now to call it that closely. This storm will add to the 3-6" that many of the same areas see with the clippers this week.

On to the east coast...well I won't go there yet, but this new run will probably spur as much talk as yesterday....onward...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5011812!!/

You can go back and forth in time from that link.

DLI2k5 · #78 Postby **DLI2k5** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 2:35 pm

Hey there Purdue! I truly appreciate your posts, so very informative and i'm learning as you continue to post, thanks! As for that secondary low developing off the Carolina coast, what do you think the chances are if it were to occur that it would enhance winter precip across the Carolinas? I think it was back in either 1996 or 2000 when we got a surprise snowstorm, when a low formed off the FL/GA coast and paralleled the coastline all the way up north. Do you think this could occur again based on what you are seeing to this point?

Is the 12z Euro out yet?

Who is online