Here we go again, PA/NJ...Possible Snow & MORE ARTIC air

[Stephanie]

The different model runs have been consistent with some kind of storm for us next week. We just have to see how close it is to us.

[Jim Cantore]

I just want a day off from school.

[Stephanie]

I want a day off from work!

[angelwing]

The heck with the day, how about a week

[Stephanie]

The heck with the day, how about a week

I've got cabin fever as it is. I don't think I'd last a week stuck in my house. Marty and I will kill each other!

[angelwing]

(Wasn't sure if this shouyld be posted in the valentine's day storm thread or here)


Here is a current Special Weather Statement for Home (Philadelphia, PA) until
6:00am, Sun Feb 11 2007, from your local National Weather Service office.



NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...
OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
305 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THREAT INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, ALLOWING COLDER
AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, THEN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY.

AS THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.
AS A RESULT, THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS QUITE
POSSIBLE. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM ARE STILL
NOT CERTAIN, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS INCREASING.
HOWEVER, A SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK CAN IMPACT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL THE AREA SEES. IF SOME MILDER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, THEN MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR. AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH. THIS COULD
HAVE A GREATER IMPACT, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.

EVERYONE IS URGED TO KEEP UPDATED ON THE UPCOMING INCREASING THREAT
OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM AS THE DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

[Jim Cantore]

I exchange emails with NWS Mount Holly Met Jim Eberwine. And he says that if it comes together and stays snow this could be an 8 to 10 inch event.

[Nimbus]

Storm2k has been on this specific storm since Feb 5th.

http://tinyurl.com/24a6f3

There seem to be three different areas of geographic interest with this storm. The local weather forecasters in New England have been a little slow to get the word out of a potential major snow event.

Weekends are the best time to do storm prep so I'm glad to hear some mets are issuing warnings. I'm sure someone will either start a new thread named blizzard of 2007! or a moderator will rename an old thread when the official forecast mentions the word "blizzard".

[angelwing]

Special Weather Statement
(Expires: Monday February 12 5:00AM EST)

special weather statement
national weather service mount holly nj
305 pm est sun feb 11 2007
new castle-kent de-inland sussex-delaware beaches-cecil-kent md-
queen anne's-talbot-caroline-sussex-warren-morris-hunterdon-
somerset-middlesex-western monmouth-eastern monmouth-mercer-salem-
gloucester-camden-northwestern burlington-ocean-cumberland-
atlantic-cape may-atlantic coastal cape may-coastal atlantic-
coastal ocean-southeastern burlington-carbon-monroe-berks-lehigh-
northampton-chester-montgomery-bucks-delaware-philadelphia-
including the cities of...wilmington...dover...georgetown...
rehoboth beach...elkton...chestertown...centreville...easton...
denton...newton...washington...morristown...flemington...
somerville...new brunswick...freehold...sandy hook...trenton...
pennsville...glassboro...camden...cherry hill...moorestown...
mount holly...jackson...millville...hammonton...
cape may court house...ocean city...atlantic city...
long beach island...wharton state forest...jim thorpe...
stroudsburg...reading...allentown...bethlehem...west chester...
norristown...doylestown...media
305 pm est sun feb 11 2007

...a significant winter storm to impact the region from tuesday
afternoon through wednesday morning...

a cold front will move across the region late in the day on monday.
as a result, another round of even colder air will settle into the
region during monday night and tuesday as a strong area of high
pressure builds across southeastern canada.

low pressure, developing in the plains monday, is forecast to
approach our area from the southwest on tuesday. this low is
expected to weaken during tuesday night as another area of low
pressure develops along the north carolina coast. this second area
of low pressure will intensify quickly as it moves northeastward,
east of the mid atlantic coast on wednesday before reaching new
england wednesday night. however, it should be stressed that this
track still has some uncertainty involved and that a shift to the
north or south will greatly impact the precipitation amounts and
even types our region sees.

however, this storm has a good potential to bring a significant
snowfall to a large portion of the area. while it is still a little
to soon to be more specific, areas from the interstate 95 corridor
on north and westward seem to have a higher chance of getting
significant snow from this storm. areas to the south and east may
tend to have snow go over to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain,
with perhaps even plain rain closer to the new jersey shore and
portions of delaware and maryland. again, this all depends on the
exact track of the storm. in addition, the systems arrival could be
a little slower, with the heaviest precipitation now looking to fall
during tuesday night and wednesday morning.

during and particularly behind the storm, gusty winds should develop
and depending on the snow amounts that occur, blowing and drifting
snow could become a concern.

since the details of this storm are still uncertain, a winter
storm watch will not be issued at this time. the national weather
service will continue to monitor the development of this winter
storm, and issue additional updates including the potential of a
winter storm watch. everyone is urged to stay tuned to noaa
weather radio all hazards or your local media outlet for the
latest updates as this storm looks to bring a precipitation mess
to our area.

[angelwing]

Geez, I went to the Acme earlier today and everyone must have been there early to do their french toast shopping..there was no milk at all! And they had cases of eggs out, they didn't even bother to uppack them, they just put the cases in the freezer and as fast as they put them out they were gone, sheesh.

[angelwing]

(much ado about nothing? Our local radio is saying 1-3 for Philly and possibly 6 for the suburbs)

Here is a current Special Weather Statement for Home (Philadelphia, PA) until 5:00pm, Mon Feb 12 2007, from your local National Weather Service office.



NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...
SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
520 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TODAY
AND IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE EAST, REACHING THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE UPPER DELMARVA, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE BY
THE END OF TUESDAY EVENING'S COMMUTE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH SOME ICING. THE SNOW AND ICE WILL MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE FROM SNOW AND SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN,
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE UPPER DELMARVA,
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY COULD EXPERIENCE A
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT IN PHILADELPHIA'S FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SUBURBS AND IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AS A RESULT, THE
WINTRY MIX SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AROUND WILMINGTON,
PHILADELPHIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND POINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO SHOWERS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

PLEASE PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION. UNLESS THE OUTLOOK REGARDING THE WINTER STORM CHANGES
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE NEW YORK AND PHILADELPHIA
METROPOLITAN AREAS.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADA'S MARITIME PROVINCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC
AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY SLUSH OR
STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE QUICKLY.

[Coredesat]

Looks like yet another dud for Richmond. Our forecast now mentions possibly up to 2 inches of rain, and very little (if any) ice or snow.

[stormraiser]

Albany NWS reporting

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT....
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TRACKING NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TO POTENTIALLY GIVE
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MANY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE 7 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING A FOOT OR MORE. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM...IT IS STILL UNKNOWN
WHERE THE MOST SNOW COULD FALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...AREAS FROM THE
NORTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND POINTS NORTHWEST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ALL SNOW. SOME
MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[/quote]

[angelwing]

Here is a current Special Weather Statement for Home (Philadelphia, PA) until 6:00am, Tue Feb 13 2007, from your local National Weather Service office.


NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...
SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
418 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY. THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ULTIMATELY PASSES TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE UPPER DELMARVA, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE BY
THE END OF TUESDAY EVENING'S COMMUTE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ALONG WITH SOME ICING. THE SNOW AND ICE WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND THE
TIMING OF THE CHANGE FROM SNOW AND SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN, LOCATIONS
IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE UPPER DELMARVA, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY COULD EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
OF ICE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AROUND OR
SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF A NEW BRUNSWICK TO PHILADELPHIA TO WILMINGTON LINE, MAY
EXPERIENCE A DANGEROUS WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MOREOVER,
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE COMBINATION
OF MELTED SNOW AND ICE AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH A FROZEN GROUND MAY
CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS.

FINALLY, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY COASTLINE, RARITAN BAY, ADJACENT BACK BAYS AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
AND BLOWOUT TIDES MAY BE A PROBLEM ON THURSDAY.

PLEASE PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADA'S MARITIME PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO
OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY SLUSH OR STANDING WATER ON
ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE QUICKLY.

[Category 5]

This storm is really reminding me of the "Not So Storm Of The Century" back in March 2001.

[angelwing]

Cat 6 were you Cat 5? (aka Hurricane Floyd?)

[Category 5]

Cat 6 were you Cat 5? (aka Hurricane Floyd?)

Yep.

[angelwing]

Lol thought so.

It's light flurries here right now (7:54PM)

[Category 5]

Nothing here yet.

[angelwing]

It's stopped, sigh