TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[double D]

I'm going to wait for the 12z Euro run before jumping on the "going east" scenario. The Euro has outperformed the GFS this winter and the Euro is colder than the GFS( and more consistent). "IF" the GFS is to be believed then the cold air will be slipping off to the southeast and Jschiltz will not have to worry too much about his vegetation freezing.

[Air Force Met]

After looking at the 12Z GFS...I am more convinced than ever that the bulk of this is going east. There is no strong high...the temps aren't that abnormally cold so it isn't dense enough to slid under the flow that is setting up...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

I think my 12-15 degrees below normal for TX for a day or so might be close....

[GeneratorPower]

Air Force Met, by "going east", please specify which states you are talking about. East could include anything from FL to Maine.

[Below N.O.]

Just saw Bastardi's video, The Big Dog. He still says the cold wave is coming. He was very adamant about that. He thinks the GFS is in lala land. He is still riding the EURO train. He showed a CFS snow cover map for the 19th of February. It had snow cover all the way from the northern plains down into central Texas. He hasn't updated his blog today, however.

Yea, but I think for the rest of us in SE Texas and along the Louisiana coast, we can just stick a fork in it.

[stormcloud]

It has seemed since last Friday the models were hinting that the core of the cold air stays a little north and east of Texas. However, this doesn't mean that we won't get our cold temps too.

[HouTXmetro]

Back to our normally scheduled boring Winter. Hopeully we can get some warm Spring weather in here soon? I'd prefer to be in Shorts and T-Shirts when I go to Galveston for Mardi-Gras next month

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, by "going east", please specify which states you are talking about. East could include anything from FL to Maine.

By east I mean east of Texas. The coldest air...teens...I think will stay north of the Red River and east of the Mississippi....going into northern MS/AL/GA maybe next weekend...and then again 10 days from now with the next surge (which will be a little colder). The bone chillnig air will be in MN/WI/MI/IN/OH...look for some -20's in northern MN....Below 0 northern IL.

[jasons2k]

Florida may get colder than Texas with this pattern. Could be some freeze problems with the citrus there. I'm thinking the 0F line may get down into northern Georgia next week. Maybe Atlanta could see temps near zero. Still a long way out.

Those are my thoughts as well. I don't think the RGV is in danger of a killing freeze with this setup, but if I were in the Central Florida groves I'd keep a very close watch.

[GeneratorPower]

We've lost a lot of citrus in California. We don't need to lose more in Florida.

[southerngale]

Amazing that we can go from cold that rivals 1989 to a hardly impressive cold snap in just a few days time.

[icicle]

ahhh, kool Thats my neck of the woods. The NWS here is already talking about snow chances for this wed nite, thurs, and again friday, with more cold temps and snow possible for next week. I hope it happens because we havent had a decent snow here in a long time.(i'm talking longer than 10 yrs ago)

Air Force Met, by "going east", please specify which states you are talking about. East could include anything from FL to Maine.

By east I mean east of Texas. The coldest air...teens...I think will stay north of the Red River and east of the Mississippi....going into northern MS/AL/GA maybe next weekend...and then again 10 days from now with the next surge (which will be a little colder). The bone chillnig air will be in MN/WI/MI/IN/OH...look for some -20's in northern MN....Below 0 northern IL.

[Portastorm]

Amazing that we can go from cold that rivals 1989 to a hardly impressive cold snap in just a few days time.

My thinking as well. I've seen divergent views on this "developing weather situation" from reliable sources. I think the jury's still out on this one.

[Yankeegirl]

Might as well go plant shopping... I think winter is over as well... Time to start pruning the yard and make it look nice again...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Might as well go plant shopping... I think winter is over as well... Time to start pruning the yard and make it look nice again...

Remember, alot of people in the Northeast thought the same when the flowers and trees started blooming earlier this month. Might want to wait about three weeks or so.

[double D]

Amazing that we can go from cold that rivals 1989 to a hardly impressive cold snap in just a few days time.

My thinking as well. I've seen divergent views on this "developing weather situation" from reliable sources. I think the jury's still out on this one.

I'm interested to see what Mark Murray has to say tonight on KVUE. He was very bullish on the cold air coming this weekend, lets see if he has changed his tune or not.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Amazing that we can go from cold that rivals 1989 to a hardly impressive cold snap in just a few days time.

My thinking as well. I've seen divergent views on this "developing weather situation" from reliable sources. I think the jury's still out on this one.

I'm interested to see what Mark Murray has to say tonight on KVUE. He was very bullish on the cold air coming this weekend, lets see if he has changed his tune or not.

[double D]

I think that forecast is from this morning and Mark Murray won't do his forecat until 5:00pm. Although that forecast is probably based on his thinking and the weekend mets went along with it.

[jasons2k]

Amazing that we can go from cold that rivals 1989 to a hardly impressive cold snap in just a few days time.

Not amazing to some of us who keep a mental tally of how often these forecasts of 83/89/1899 are posted here and elsewhere. I was warning in this very forum a week ago to not buy into the '83/'89 hype.


I'm still amazed at how some people - even some pro mets - practically scream "Icebergs in Galveston Bay" every time a block shows up. These are 50-yr and 100-yr events, they don't/won't happen very often.

And FWIW it seems just a handful are the culprits....but they say the same thing every winter and before long they have a flock of snow geese bowing before them. After several years of "buying" into the hype on a particular subscriber site, I had to learn the hard way and read the models myself.

[Air Force Met]

I've been talking about how tapped the arctic air is...and I wanted give a little example of this air...compaired to normal.

Right now...Yellowknife is -3, their average mean temp for Feb is -10. Jan's avg low is -27, Feb's is -18.

Churchill (W. Hudson Bay) is -4. Feb mean is -12, Jan lo -23; Feb lo -20

Saskatoon - -5, Feb Mean - 2; -11; -8

Baker Lake (NorthWest Hudson Bay)...-7, Feb Mean -25; -32; -31

Resolute - WAAAY North - -25; Feb Mean -27; -32; -34

Frobisher Bay -13; Feb Mean -18; -22; -24...

So...given that the mean temps in Feb should be warmer than the means for late Jan...and the temps we see right now over most areas are warmer than those means...and MUCH warmer than the average lows...the temps we see over the source region are actually above normal for this time of year. There is one small pocket of below normal temps north of the Great Lakes...but it is only about 10-15 degrees below normal....with a pocket or two 20 below normal. But even those areas are 20-30 degrees warmer than their all time record lows.

The air just isn't all that cold. Another example of a great pattern that got wasted by previous events. Happens in the tropics...happens during the winter. It happened last year when all the cold air up near the poles got tapped and sent south into Asia...then the pattern shifted to us...and we got zilch.

[Portastorm]

Those are very compelling numbers AFM.

Considering you have researched the source region for this arctic airmass, I'm thinking your forecast of 12-15 below normal for a day or two looks pretty good at this point. And yes ... it is a far cry from anything historic or record-breaking.