Texas Winter 2020-2021

[foulbeast]

Just cleaned off about 3/4" of snow from my driveway in east Frisco. With my leaf blower...

There was no ice beneath the snow - the driveway was basically dry beneath the snow. That wind chill though...

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville morning discussion.....expecting the coldest temperatures for the RGV since 1989

Code: Select all

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021/

.HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A 500mb trough swings into Texas
today and out tomorrow while an arctic plunge occurs at the surface.
CAA has been rather impressive over the past couple of days, with
most model guidance much warmer than surface observations. With that
in mind, have stuck to a colder solution, and adjusted colder
quicker late Monday as skies clear. The best precipitation occurs
just ahead of and along the leading edge of the arctic air Sunday
evening into Monday morning. Most guidance has drier air arriving
from the west quickly on Monday.

Model soundings still lean toward a classic warm nose freezing rain
signature late Sunday evening through Monday morning, however, snow
flurries or brief periods of light snow, mainly across Zapata and
Jim Hogg counties, may be possible Monday morning as cooler air
aloft arrives. Flyovers, interchanges, bridges, and elevated
surfaces will likely become icy in any precipitation Sunday night
into Monday morning. This may occur even when surface temperatures
are a degree or two above freezing. As a result, travel should be
avoided Sunday night through Monday morning.

Northerly winds increase with the arrival of the arctic air Sunday
evening, leading to life threatening wind chill values through
Monday morning. A Hard Freeze, with surface temperatures falling
below 27 degrees for multiple hours is likely across the northern
ranchland counties of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy tonight.
Temperatures will struggle to warm to freezing or above Monday
afternoon. Depending on how strong the CAA is with this arctic
blast, there may be a prolonged period of sub freezing temperatures
from late tonight into Tuesday morning. Any exposed pipes,
vegetation, or crops will likely be damaged or frozen during this
period.

As for hazards, the ongoing Freeze Warning and Wind Chill Advisory
will continue into mid morning. A Winter Storm Warning will be in
effect across all of Deep South Texas, including the lower Texas
coast from 6 PM this evening until 12 PM Monday afternoon, due to
expected wintry precipitation and life threatening conditions.  A
Wind Chill Warning will also be in effect across all of Deep South
Texas from 6 PM this evening until 12 PM Monday afternoon, with
dangerous wind chill values expected after midnight. A Wind Advisory
will be in effect along the coast from 6 PM this evening until 3 PM
Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday):[b][color=#FF0000] Temperatures will be the
main concern at the start of the forecast period. Some of the
coldest temperatures that have not been seen in over 30 years, since
1989, will spill into deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Monday night into Tuesday Monday. The big question is how low will
the temperatures fall Tuesday morning? [/color][/b]Mostly clear skies and
generally light winds should support very cold low temperatures with
excellent radiational cooling Monday night. However, a large
spread in the temperatures between the models have emerged for
overnight lows Tuesday morning. The colder NAM is much warmer with
temperatures compared to the latest GFS and ECMWF, especially
across the northern ranchlands, Tuesday morning. The only reasons
for this would be some increasing clouds and/or winds overnight
may not fully decouple. That being said, widespread freezing
temperatures are expected across all of deep south Texas Tuesday
morning. Lows should range from the teens across the northern
ranchlands to mid 20s across the Valley and near the coast.
Temperatures may even briefly touch freezing mark at South Padre
Island. Also, daily record lows may be broken across the area
Tuesday morning. In addition, light north winds should support
wind chill values in the single digits across the north to the
teens elsewhere, except near the coast.

Temperatures gradually warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday
as surface high pressure slides eastward and onshore flow briefly
returns. Another cold front moves into the region Tuesday night as
surface low pressure develops along the coast. Rain chances increase
Tuesday night with the passage of the front and lingering low
pressure offshore. Rain chances diminish by Wednesday afternoon as
high pressure builds into the region. Breezy north winds are
expected Wednesday into Wednesday night in the wake of the front.
High pressure across builds then settles across deep south Texas for
the remainder of the week. Below normal temperatures will prevail
through the rest of the period. No rain is expected Thursday through
Saturday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

8°F. -12°F windchill and snow.

[funster]

Ercot app is basically here's a couple charts. You figure it out.

ERCOT app forecasting exceeding demand mid-afternoon. But, I question its accuracy as it constantly changes and magically gets enough capacity as it gets closer the past few days.

It’s already updated to say there will be enough capacity now. So sketchy.

Looking much better but looks like it is still just over capacity at around hour 22? Hopefully, they can find a way to meet that as well.

[Iceresistance]

8°F. -12°F windchill and snow.

5°F Temperature, wind chill of -16°F

Snowing as well, but heavier bands are coming . . .

[gboudx]

Jeff Lindner

Dangerous winter storm will move into the region starting late this afternoon lasting in Monday with crippling travel impacts

Extraordinary cold for Monday and Tuesday

Second winter storm possible over portions of the area Tuesday night-Thursday morning

Discussion:
Freezing line has progressed southeast overnight and extends from near Conroe to Cypress to Katy to Victoria. Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle has developed over parts of the area NW of the freezing line this morning and this is resulting in patchy ice forming on some bridges and overpasses across northwest Harris County and more widespread issues to the north and west. Travel to the north and west of Harris County is becoming dangerous and is ill advised.

Periods of light precipitation will be possible today with temperatures rising remaining below freezing generally NW of a Huntsville to Conroe to Hempstead to Wharton line and mid to upper 30’s south of that line.

A powerful upper level storm system will move across Texas tonight into Monday resulting in a significant and high impact winter storm. Strong arctic front will arrive this evening resulting in quickly falling temperatures along the development of widespread precipitation. Expect freezing rain to develop by late afternoon and early evening across much of the area and then transition to sleet and snow across much of the area late tonight into Monday. High resolution models continue to come in with a bit more snow over the area due to some meso scale banding features and given the expected dynamics aloft this looks reasonable. Will bump snowfall total up a bit more

Accumulations:

Precipitation will onset late this afternoon and early this evening for most areas

Ice:
1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across most areas, especially the US 59 corridor

Snow:
4-6 inches: Houston and Trinity Counties
3-4 inches: College Station to Huntsville
2-3 inches: north of a line from Cleveland to Conroe to Hempstead to Columbus
1-2 inches: north of a line from Liberty to Houston to Sugar Land to Wharton
Less than an inch: south of a line from Winnie to League City to Bay City

Impacts:

Travel:
Ice and snow falling with temperatures falling into the low 20’s and upper 10’s Monday morning will result in near impossible travel on all surfaces…this includes surface streets, sidewalks, and parking lots. Anyone attempting to travel has a high potential of becoming stranded…and the simple message is where you area Sunday evening is where you are going to be Tuesday.

Power:
Ice accumulations are right on the border between isolated and sporadic power outages and more significant widespread outages. Even with the marginal ice accumulations for widespread power disruption, winds of 15-25mph may be the key factor that pushes tree limbs and power lines past their breaking point. Residents should be prepared for power outages.

Historic Cold:
A most memorable cold air outbreak will accompany the winter precipitation. Temperatures will fall below freezing Sunday evening for many areas and remain below freezing into Tuesday and Wednesday…it is possible that areas from College Station to Huntsville do not get above freezing until Friday. The long duration of the sub-freezing temperatures along with the brutal intensity of the cold air mass is going to create extensive damage across the region to vegetation and infrastructure.

Expect most areas to fall into the 10’s and low 20’s on Monday (coast in the upper 20’s) and then continue to fall Monday night and bottom out with lows in the upper 1’s and low 10’s north of I-10 and upper 10’s and low 20’s near the beaches. College Station to Huntsville looking like lower to middle 1’s. Wind chills Monday night will fall into the -10’s and -1’s across much of the area.

This is life threatening cold and persons should limit outside exposure to short periods of time to avoid frostbite and hypothermia.

Lastly, given the intensity and duration of the cold, portions of lakes and ponds, stock ponds, and other small water bodies, ect may freeze over with a layer of ice…DO NOT attempt to walk on any frozen water body as the ice will not be thick enough to support a person.

Time is running out to prepare for the extreme cold…have all preparations completed by this afternoon.

Preparations:

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.

Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

[Iceresistance]

Val & Amy Castor Livestream on I-40

https://www.news9.com/videolivestream?liveStream=https://live.field59.com/kwtv/kwtv2/playlist.m3u8

[PDinKS]

Well, couldn’t go back to sleep. Snowing lightly again for a bit after a break. Looks between a quarter and half inch on fence. Not going out to measure until an inch. Lol

Seeing news posts back home in Kansas, and it’s snowing still up there. This is such a widespread snow. Just incredible.

S.E. Kansas here, Chanute. I'm a coop observer, so I am up and reading data every morning. I was shocked at the fact I had 4" on the ground by 9 a.m.; was not expecting that!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I agree Wxman and orangeblood, i think SE Tx will have more than progged. Will the crashing high and such moist upper levels, i expect alot of moisture to be squeezed out.
The GFS is showing sleet at times where the sounding will be snow.

[cstrunk]

Very light flurries now in Longview.

[Ntxw]

FYI the daily high at DFW for today was likely reached right after midnight which I think was 20F.

Daily record low for Feb 14th is 15F which we'll break pretty soon in the middle of the afternoon. 16F now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

FYI the daily high at DFW for today was likely reached right after midnight which I think was 20F.

Daily record low for Feb 14th is 15F which we'll break pretty soon in the middle of the afternoon.

That stream of the airport looked nuts. Looks like Alaska lol

[Ntxw]

FYI the daily high at DFW for today was likely reached right after midnight which I think was 20F.

Daily record low for Feb 14th is 15F which we'll break pretty soon in the middle of the afternoon.

That stream of the airport looked nuts. Looks like Alaska lol

It has let up some so you can now make out the runway and vehicles. Wind still strong however. But yeah earlier this morning it was pretty wild at the airport which got jackpotted on radar since 3am.

In a couple of hours though the webcams across DFW will be lit.

[fendie]

The calm before the storm west of Austin...

[bubba hotep]

IMBY, we had sleet earlier but it's been basically nonstop very fine misty like snow grains since then but do have some larger flakes starting to mix in now (by larger, I mean still very small but no longer needles).

[bubba hotep]

The calm before the storm west of Austin...

https://i.imgur.com/H7LK98b.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/H1a1yuZ.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/VZpTX1S.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/tpDmTFq.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/wFcjAFG.jpg

Hopefully, y'all don't get anymore freezing rain and can stay all sleet or snow, that looks bad already!

[Ralph's Weather]

Very light flurries now in Longview.

Same in Hideaway, flurry mixed with drizzle. 23 degrees

[jasons2k]

33 here and raining.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like the first heavy snow band will hit DFW about 2-3 hours from now. Nothing falling here. Just plain old 3 day ice.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My prediction for Sugar Land (only for the first event):
I think we will have more moisture than the global runs are showing.

4" of snow tonight
Tuesday morning low of 3, this all depends on how much snow is on the ground. I'm going full jinx since i believe we will have more snow on the ground than models show, hence a bit lower temp than they are predicting.

I have an official weather station in my backyard, 30 ft up. Will give reports tonight as the storm rolls through.