Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

For the NWS FTW Office.....


NO snow on the ground, NO snow on the ground, looking like a fool with lots of snow on the ground...

[msstateguy83]

yeah i see how anyone could do it you go to click on the nws graphics they have put there and it takes you to the am haz wx outlook... so basically if you happen to not look @ the time stamp at the top its like what the heck??? lol so not your fault..

[Portastorm]

I'm almost afraid to report this because Wxman57 will probably tell me to not gripe any more about getting wintry weather, but during today's Great S2K Blackout, it did sleet in downtown Austin for about 10 minutes before turning into a cold light rain.

Yeah! Quit your whining now!

See everybody?! I told you!

All kidding aside, for you Austinites ... if we see any sleet or snow it will happen if the upper-level system tracks overhead. That isn't supposed to happen until Thursday evening/night, so it'll depend on the ultimate track of that upper low.

[katheria]

For the NWS FTW Office.....


NO snow on the ground, NO snow on the ground, looking like a fool with lots of snow on the ground...

[msstateguy83]

wow just came across the wire tulsa nws issuing winter wx adv for even eastern ok for 1-3" that far north...

[wxman57]

Very small sleet pellets in south Houston at Beltway 8 near I-45. About the size of a pin head (1-2mm or about 1/16" diameter). Soundings did indicate that the best chance for sleet here would be with the onset of precip before low-level warm advection sets in when the low develops. But we could see rain/sleet mixed tomorrow. Wouldn't rule out a snowflake, but don't look for any accumulations in Houston.

[katheria]

wow just came across the wire tulsa nws issueing winter wx adv for even eastern ok for 1-3" that far north...

good sign for us...

almost had a heart attack for a sec...thought the site was going down again..it hung a good 20 secs....whew........

[msstateguy83]

i like the gfs for you folks near dfw and just n/s of i-20 and even into nw tx say near vernon, w.falls...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pro Mets: When do you think will be the climax of the storm? I think late tomorrow afternoon for folks in Dallas. What do you guys think?

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
338 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND SLEET TO THE
AREA.

ARZ070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167-110400-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0001.100211T2200Z-100212T1600Z/
MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-
CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-
OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...
EL DORADO...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...
MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...
JENA...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...
CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
338 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 400 PM CST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH 1000 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING...FOR ALL OF EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND FOR
THAT PART OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TEXARKANA TO
EL DORADO.

SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM
NACOGDOCHES TEXAS TO CLARKS LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET SOUTH OF THAT LINE.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM TYLER TEXAS TO FARMERVILLE
LOUISIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THAT
LINE...BUT NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO MANY
LOUISIANA...TO JENA LOUISIANA. THE AREA INCLUDES THE SHREVEPORT
AND MONROE LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREAS.

OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR.

THE MAIN ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WET OR SLUSHY THROUGH THE
EVENT...HOWEVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[msstateguy83]

out near 30 hrs on snowfall amts...

http://yfrog.com/3wgfs32010021018f30snowinp

[msstateguy83]

33 hours out... on 18z gfs snowfall amts...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My mother is in Sugar Land and says it is sleeting or she calls it "a sharp rain."

Temp is 47 degrees there right now lol

[msstateguy83]

FLUS44 KFWD 102137
HWOFWD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
337 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO PALESTINE LINE. A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME SLUSHY OR ICY SPOTS
MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE...DALLAS... PARIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM APPROACHES...WE WILL SEE RAIN AND SNOW
EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LAMPASAS...WACO...
PALESTINE LINE. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY
SURFACES. SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

[msstateguy83]

WWUS44 KFWD 102145
WSWFWD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161-111000-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.100211T0900Z-100212T1200Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-LIMESTONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
WACO...MEXIA...GROESBECK
345 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY
TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REGION. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

ON THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY SNOW TO FALL GENERALLY NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE LINE. FARTHER SOUTH...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS
ANTICIPATED. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF HEAVY
WET SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS APPROACHING
4 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW
WILL FALL IN A SWATH FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO STEPHENVILLE TO FORT
WORTH TO DALLAS AND FARTHER EAST INTO EAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

IMPACTS TO ROAD TRAVEL ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND THE
SNOW ON ROADS SHOULD REMAIN SLUSHY. MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS MAY
COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS SLUSHY SNOWFALL
FREEZES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON ROADS AND BRIDGES. MOTORISTS
TRAVELING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY
FRIDAY SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IF CONDITIONS ARE COLDER THAN ANTICIPATED
THEN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

$$

DUNN

[Weatherdude20]

Hahaha nice Msstateguy, i love the prediction.

My turn.... Ahaha If had had the tools and time to make a graphic, I totally would, but I don't...

My Prediction Wednesday night - Friday : After Midnight Rain/Snow picking up in coverage and intensity across Central and North Texas, temps around 32 in the metroplex, after sunrise a changeover to all snow for the metroplex could occur. For the am hours temps should be 32-34 degrees in the metro, with light to moderate snow/sleet falling. Accumulations in the am, if any, should be fairly light as temps will be around freezing. After noon, temps should be around 31-35 in the DFW metroplex, with moderate snow bands likely, accumulations of around 1-2" are possible. Thursday evening, temps droping around 30-33 in the Metro with moderate snow falling, additional accumulations around 1 inch. After sunset temps will plummet below freezing, 28-32 in the metro with moderate to Heavy snow bands possible before midnight. (That time period is the time im worried about where an ADDITIONAL 1-3" inches of DRIER snow could be possible AND when temps will be below freezing and temps will be right fr snow to stcik on roads... remember ALSO this is the time frame when the snow will be heaviest!!)

Accumulations with this storm should be around 3-6" along a line from Comanche to Fort Worth to Sherman line. NOTE: Along I-20 there could be heavier isolated amounts up to 8" ecspecialy just south of the Interstate. Waco could also see a good 1-3" possibly a wet 4.

Stay tuned...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[katheria]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 102145
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE INTERESTING ONES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z
MODELS NOT PLAYING NICELY IN THE CONSISTENCY DEPARTMENT AS ALL OF
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN TIMING OF SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH A STEADY PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH AREA 88D DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW
LARGE AREAS OF PRIMARILY VIRGA ONGOING. MODELS LIKELY MISSED A
STRONGER PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET FARTHER SOUTH.

LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 285-300K LAYER INCREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH RAPID
SATURATION OF THE COLUMN ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO PEAK IN THE 6-9Z
TIMEFRAME AND WITH THE QUICK SATURATION EXPECTED...ITS EFFECTS ON
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW DEGREES.
STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT INITIALLY.
IT SHOULD START OUT AS A LIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIX IN MOST AREAS THEN
SWITCH TO PRIMARILY SNOW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF CONCERNS STILL TO CONTEND WITH...FIRST IS THE
POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THERMAL PROFILES
SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM NEAR 925-700MB WHICH IS STILL 1-2
DEGREES C BELOW ZERO. THE INTENSITY OF THE WARM ADVECTION
INDICATED BY THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS IS CONCERNING BECAUSE IF THE
LAYER WARMS JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN
PRECIP TYPE WOULD LIKELY DOMINATE...WHICH HAPPENS QUITE OFTEN IN
THIS AREA WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. THIS BECOMES MORE OF A
CONCERN IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS ANY FURTHER. THE SECOND...IF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THEN THE BEST MOISTURE COULD BE BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ON THE FLIP SIDE OF ALL OF
THAT...IF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COLDER WITH THE GIVEN
QPF AMOUNTS...THEN MUCH HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE REALIZED.

SO THAT BEING SAID...THE PLAN IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO
PALESTINE LINE FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH
APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BEST COMBINATION OF QPF AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL
PROFILE WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO DALLAS
TO CANTON AND AREAS EAST OF THERE. FARTHER NORTH...MOISTURE
QUANTITY BECOMES A CONCERN. FARTHER SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW MIX BECOMES
MORE LIKELY AS THE COLUMN WILL BE WARMER. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ICING PROBS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS SLUSHY SNOW REFREEZES TO ROADS AND BRIDGES.

BEYOND THURSDAY...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
SYSTEM IN WHICH A CHUNK OF COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND CONFIGURATION OF UPPER PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. OVERALL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING 5-7 DAYS.

[Ntxw]

We still have very low dewpoints even with all the moisture and and cloud cover overhead. Most of DFW is sitting at around 20 dewpoints.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We still have very low dewpoints even with all the moisture and and cloud cover overhead. Most of DFW is sitting at around 20 dewpoints.

yeah, 19 degrees here in Nac. When the sun goes down, it should help bring it up.

[srainhoutx]

Sleet in NW Harris County.